yoda Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Looks like frost or freeze warnings will be needed Thursday night and Friday night... both days have highs of 40 to 45... yuck 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 On 3/28/2021 at 6:07 AM, dailylurker said: Looks like another over performer inbound. Crazy how it doesn't just rain anymore. It's always a flood event pretty much every time it rain. On 3/28/2021 at 6:20 AM, CAPE said: Lol wait until Wed-Thurs. Guess where WPC has the axis of heaviest rain for Wed currently. Still some disparity across guidance. Hopefully no more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 41 minutes ago, CAPE said: Guess where WPC has the axis of heaviest rain for Wed currently. Still some disparity across guidance. Hopefully no more than an inch. Let me guess.. same place it's been the past 2 years lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Guess where WPC has the axis of heaviest rain for Wed currently. Still some disparity across guidance. Hopefully no more than an inch. 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: Let me guess.. same place it's been the past 2 years lol. Some things just don't change lately. Ex. The near sub-tropical entity dropping 2+ inches of rain with the western edge along- you know the interstate continuing last years theme. As always, persistence until it isn't anymore. But this persistence has been persisting persistently for a while. It's going to change... eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 43/24 at IAD currently after getting down to 41F. Gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Darn gusts woke me up a bunch of times overnight. I better go check that siding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Not long range anymore. Inside 72 now Ukie with some wintery changeover love.... or hate for some peoples That’s 96. The reason i mention that is it seems there’s a bit of discrepancy in the timing. Is it going to be over Thursday morning or continue into Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 9 hours ago, dailylurker said: Let me guess.. same place it's been the past 2 years lol. Latest AFD from Mount Holly- As the midnight shift mentioned this morning and I`ll repeat verbatim, "it is becoming clear is that the large-scale pattern is favorable for an axis of decently high QPF, with upper-level flow becoming increasingly parallel to the surface front. With intense large-scale ascent via differential cyclonic vorticity advection and warm/moist low- level advection, precipitation will be widespread and fairly long-duration (despite the fast movement of the surface low)." So the challenge is where exactly does that axis of heavy precip develop? Based on trends in model guidance, forecast keeps the heaviest precip over our CWA with the highest totals (1-1.5") just east of the I-95 corridor. While subtle shifts are likely within the guidance of the next couple of days, I anticipate we`ll see at least some portion of the forecast area will recieve a prolonged 6+ hours of moderate to at times heavy rain even as the system is gaining speed moving to towards the northeast. As such, we`ve introduced heavy rain wording into the forecast for the Wednesday afternoon and overnight time periods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Mount Holly on snow chances. A tad different than that Ukie snow map above lol. For those who enjoy Spring snow, our eyes turn to the behind the cold front as cold air will race southeastward into the region by Thursday morning. I`m not to terribly bullish on wintry precipitation however with the cold air surging, its becoming increasingly likely that we`ll see rain turning to snow for the Poconos however it will likely be highly elevation dependent. Generally less than half an inch will be possible but with an increasing solar angle we may not see very much actually accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Not sure my weather lines up well with the Poconos lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Snow would be a nice bonus, but I'm just happy to have a freeze to kill of this early wave of bugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Snow would be a nice bonus, but I'm just happy to have a freeze to kill of this early wave of bugs. LOL. Those things only multiply by about a billion a day. I would t look for any drastic reductions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure my weather lines up well with the Poconos lol Well, a half inch or less there probably doesn't bode well for snow in your yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL. Those things only multiply by about a billion a day. I would t look for any drastic reductions Bugs are prolific. A late season freeze or 2 will have zero impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 LOL. Those things only multiply by about a billion a day. I would t look for any drastic reductionsAnything helps! Slows the exponential growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Looks familiar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 30, 2021 Author Share Posted March 30, 2021 Easter is looking fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam'd Yeah... not happening lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 30, 2021 Author Share Posted March 30, 2021 54 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam'd Looks like the last two March “threat” maps that led to 0.0” of actual snow. Looking forward to upper 60s tomorrow and 70s on Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Those who are jonesing for Spring snow should take a drive. The places that typically get it are going to, and maybe a good amount in some cases. Per WPC- As the low lifts northeast, it will be accompanied by moist and warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico with widespread and ample precipitation spreading northward. Initially, the column will be too warm for any wintry precipitation. However, a cold front sinking southeastward will lead to CAA and full-column cooling, aided by what is likely to be an intense deformation axis on the NW side of the low, into which robust WAA will drive strong omega through the DGZ. This suggests that a period of heavy snow is likely as precip changes over from rain to snow, and model-cross sections indicate a chance for CSI banding across upstate New York Thursday morning. While the heaviest snow is likely in the terrain where temperatures will be colder and cool more quickly, WPC probabilities for moderate to heavy snow have expanded slightly to encompass some lower terrain as well where the dynamic cooling will overcome the marginal low-level thermal structure. WPC probabilities have increased, and are now high for 6 inches on days 2.5-3 in the Finger Lakes region, the Tug Hill Plateau, and Adirondacks of New York. In the Adirondacks, locally more than 10" is likely where some upslope enhancement will occur as NW flow develops behind the low. WPC probabilities for 4 inches are moderate for much of upstate New York outside of the Hudson River Valley, and parts of VT. Lighter snows adding up to a few inches are likely as the low pulls away in the favored upslope regions of WV, and downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Looking like a real hard freeze Thursday night. Far NW areas might see low 20s This does look likely. Thinking 28ish IMBY. That should be ok for my blooming magnolia. Under 25 is where the blooms could get nuked and I think I stay above that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This does look likely. Thinking 28ish IMBY. That should be ok for my blooming magnolia. Under 25 is where the blooms could get nuked and I think I stay above that. yeah the wind should help from reaching min lows I guess but might be close. Fairly impressive cold shot for April 1, luckily it looks to be short lived and by easter sunday and next week we're defintely back into Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Looking like a real hard freeze Thursday night. Far NW areas might see low 20s Maybe the temporary cold will slow the warp-speed growth of my backyard grass, which will be knee-high in spots by this weekend if I don't get my butt out there today and do the first cut. But I doubt it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said: yeah the wind should help from reaching min lows I guess but might be close. Fairly impressive cold shot for April 1, luckily it looks to be short lived and by easter sunday and next week we're defintely back into Spring These forecast lows are not that impressive. Like -10F departures. We had +20F minimum departures last week. The beat goes on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: These forecast lows are not that impressive. Like -10F departures. We had +20F minimum departures last week. The beat goes on. Yeah, I guess maybe Im just saying that because we havent had low departures all winter really...I think maybe I had one morning where it got in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, vastateofmind said: Maybe the temporary cold will slow the warp-speed growth of my backyard grass, which will be knee-high in spots by this weekend if I don't get my butt out there today and do the first cut. But I doubt it. I got the lawn mower tuned up two weeks ago. Have mowed grass twice now. Check that, I mowed 50% weeds, 50% grass. Warm temps gonna keep that stuff stretching upwards 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 NAM took away any snow. Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Will losetoa6 be posting that? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Will losetoa6 be posting that? Of New York Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Hope the CMC is correct. Would be nice to see N central MD get a 2"+ soaking rain. Hate to see them get into early pre-drought concerns after all the dryness last summer/Fall. As for here, would love to underperform for a second straight event. A half to 1 inch would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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