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March 2021 Discobs


nj2va
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On 3/28/2021 at 6:07 AM, dailylurker said:

Looks like another over performer inbound. Crazy how it doesn't just rain anymore. It's always a flood event pretty much every time it rain. 

 

On 3/28/2021 at 6:20 AM, CAPE said:

Lol wait until Wed-Thurs.

Guess where WPC has the axis of heaviest rain for Wed currently. Still some disparity across guidance. Hopefully no more than an inch.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

 

 

Guess where WPC has the axis of heaviest rain for Wed currently. Still some disparity across guidance. Hopefully no more than an inch.

 

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Let me guess.. same place it's been the past 2 years lol. 

Some things just don't change lately. 

Ex. The near sub-tropical entity dropping 2+ inches of rain with the western edge along-  you know the interstate continuing last years theme. 

As always, persistence until it isn't anymore. But this persistence has been persisting persistently for a while.

It's going to change... eventually. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Not long range anymore.  Inside 72 now

Ukie with some wintery  changeover love.... or hate for some peoples:lol:

 

sn10_acc.us_ma (1).png

That’s 96. The reason i mention that is it seems there’s a bit of discrepancy in the timing. Is it going to be over Thursday morning or continue into Friday

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9 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Let me guess.. same place it's been the past 2 years lol. 

Latest AFD from Mount Holly-

As the midnight shift mentioned this morning and I`ll repeat verbatim, "it is becoming clear is that the large-scale pattern is favorable for an axis of decently high QPF, with upper-level flow becoming increasingly parallel to the surface front. With intense large-scale ascent via differential cyclonic vorticity advection and warm/moist low- level advection, precipitation will be widespread and fairly long-duration (despite the fast movement of the surface low)."

So the challenge is where exactly does that axis of heavy precip develop? Based on trends in model guidance, forecast keeps the heaviest precip over our CWA with the highest totals (1-1.5") just east of the I-95 corridor. While subtle shifts are likely within the guidance of the next couple of days, I anticipate we`ll see at least some portion of the forecast area will recieve a prolonged 6+ hours of moderate to at times heavy rain even as the system is gaining speed moving to towards the northeast. As such, we`ve introduced heavy rain wording into the forecast for the Wednesday afternoon and overnight time periods.

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Mount Holly on snow chances. A tad different than that Ukie snow map above lol.

For those who enjoy Spring snow, our eyes turn to the behind the cold front as cold air will race southeastward into the region by Thursday morning. I`m not to terribly bullish on wintry precipitation however with the cold air surging, its becoming increasingly likely that we`ll see rain turning to snow for the Poconos however it will likely be highly elevation dependent. Generally less than half an inch will be possible but with an increasing solar angle we may not see very much actually accumulate.

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