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March 2021 Discobs


nj2va
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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Went from 0.82" to 1.48" quick. Well now I am not happy.

I need to try another chair. Or bed. Or bowl of porridge. This ain't quite right.

 

33 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

1.98”

Still some light rain but probably not enough to get over the hump.

 

54 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

1.72” and still pouring.

This is a good example of what I keep talking about with the “new normal” for rain events IMBY. Once again, what should’ve been a typical 0.3-0.5” shower becomes a 2+” deluge for no real reason.

530yqk.jpg

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

1.72” and still pouring.

This is a good example of what I keep talking about with the “new normal” for rain events IMBY. Once again, what should’ve been a typical 0.3-0.5” shower becomes a 2+” deluge for no real reason.

Same here. It is pretty bizarre.

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1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

This storm seemed more tropical than a run of the mill spring storm.

Mount Holly had a great discussion this morning, saying this had similarities to a PRE, similar the setup ahead of a tropical event. That low that was hanging off NC had some semi tropical characteristics before moving inland, and even though it weakened, it maintained a circulation and interacted with the front from the low well to the NW. 

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Mount Holly had a great discussion this morning, saying this had similarities to a PRE, similar the setup ahead of a tropical event. That low that was hanging off NC had some semi tropical characteristics before moving inland, and even though it weakened, it maintained a circulation and interacted with the front from the low well to the NW. 

I read that. Probably why I said it. I’m not capable of an original thought.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Mount Holly had a great discussion this morning, saying this had similarities to a PRE, similar the setup ahead of a tropical event. That low that was hanging off NC had some semi tropical characteristics before moving inland, and even though it weakened, it maintained a circulation and interacted with the front from the low well to the NW. 

It looked like a PRE on the models leading up to the event.  Shouldn’t have been surprised that it overperformed for 95 and East.

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Mount Holly - " Rogue - severe caliber gusts " 

Model soundings suggest winds will be increasing in this regime,
readily gusting to 35+ mph by afternoon. As winds begin to veer,
diurnal mixing peaks, and a reinforcing cold front approaches
the area, speeds will likely exceed advisory criteria in much of
the area. Winds at 850 mb will be approaching 50 kt, and mixing
has the potential to reach or even exceed this level. Seems
likely we will need a wind advisory for Friday afternoon and
evening, and if mixing ends up being more efficient than
currently advertised, a rogue severe-caliber gust may occur.
Held off on issuing wind headlines early this morning given
ongoing/near-term weather, but expect wind products to be
issued for the afternoon package.
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1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The GFS also likes the idea of the world spinning backwards the first week of April with a low moving west-southwest.

Doesnt seem like the new model is gonna be off to a good start lol. Despite what verification scores might have shown I felt like it wasn’t as good as old GfS but I guess I’m wrong 

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