Birds~69 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 3 hours ago, KamuSnow said: Wow - guess Birds~69 won't be over this afternoon. What kind of bush is that? Almost looks like a tree, looking above it and behind. Popped meds this morning. Wasn't horrible, lack of wind helped today. Still felt a bit loopy. If I have wind/breeze and no rain then pollen is a mess and increased meds will turn me into a zombie. Then you need a flooding rain which will wash some pollen away. It's total crap either way...I'd rather have 15F and heavy freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 Nearby is a long run of pine trees running east-west, on the north facing side a solid 20ft wide strip of snow for the length of a football field Once had a stretch like them in Horsham and it was the last place to hold snow, pine make for the best sun block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 22, 2021 Author Share Posted March 22, 2021 Made it up to a high of 63 yesterday. Current temp 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 La Nina spring a month late but finally arrived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Received a red/tan coating yesterday w/only about 45mins in the direct sun. Going to hang outside this afternoon so I'll see what happens (thinking red) and the thought of BBQ'ing comes to mind but not sure. Allergies aren't bad at all surprisingly even w/o meds and the birds are chirping some Zeppelin tunes... 60F/super sunny, blue skies and a DP of 24F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Just a bit of a different day between here at the Jersey Shore and home in East Nantmeal - Ocean Water temp still running below normal with today's temps still at 43 degrees.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 On 3/2/2021 at 11:31 PM, RedSky said: Truth or rumor that JB thinks the second half of March into April is going to be a snow blitz Any JB updates? I'm hesitant to put the Snowcat away incase I need it to off-road my way to Wine & Spirits during the upcoming blitz. 63F, full sun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 hours ago, JTA66 said: Any JB updates? I'm hesitant to put the Snowcat away incase I need it to off-road my way to Wine & Spirits during the upcoming blitz. 63F, full sun Legendary pollen blitz has begun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 24, 2021 Author Share Posted March 24, 2021 Interesting read for today/tonight from Mt. Holly .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The lengthy stretch of dry weather comes to an end today. Beautiful satellite imagery over the CONUS this morning as an occluding mid- latitude cyclone slowly approaches the western Great Lakes. Ahead of it lies an expansive frontal zone of cloud cover with a large band of cold cloud tops observed on IR from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation in most of this band is limited and on the light side as of early this morning, however. Meanwhile, a weak but pesky surface low which has sat well to our south for days was observed on radar moving inland over North Carolina overnight. The landfall was reminiscent of a weak tropical cyclone moving ashore. FSU cyclone phase space diagrams suggest it had at best a marginal and shallow warm core at landfall, and a lack of any deep convection rendered it firmly non-tropical. But it has a good envelope of higher moisture air associated with it from the sub-tropics, and as the day goes on it will begin to interact with the approaching frontal zone. This combination will lead to the blossoming of an area of showers which will bring a solid dose of rain to the area. Prior to the start of rainfall, we`ve seen low clouds fill in over much of the area overnight as the low levels moisten further in the continued light onshore flow regime. This trend should continue into daybreak, and we should see more in the way of fog develop as well. It is possible we could see some breaks in the clouds during the mid morning hours as mixing begins and before rain arrives, but this is uncertain and probably less likely than not. As the day goes on, what remains of the low to the south will become entrained in the slow moving frontal zone and will move towards our region. Continuing a trend that has been ongoing for at least 36 hours now, most model guidance continues to trend higher on QPF for this event. There has certainly been a trend higher in projected PWATs for today, which appear poised to rise to 1.2 to 1.4 inches across the region. Low level omega shows notable improvement over the area today, especially this afternoon. There is also a somewhat subtle ~95 kt upper jet streak which moves into New York state this afternoon, adding a bit of divergence at the upper levels. With this said, continuing the connections to tropical weather, there are at least some loose parallels to a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in play today with the rising PWATs and right entrance jet dynamics, especially considering the actual center of the compact low remains south of the region for most of the day. While there is quite a bit of variation in the models, it now appears many areas will pick up 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain today, with the potential for some localized higher amounts especially over southeastern portions of the area near the low center, and possibly over eastern PA with some orographic enhancement as well as the better jet dynamics. The trends have been a little slower on timing of rainfall, but showers should overspread the region from southwest to northeast mainly between 9AM and 2PM. Lighter showers or drizzle are possible before the arrival of steadier rain. Once the steadier rain arrives, it should continue through at least most of the daylight hours, possibly tapering off late in the day to the southwest. Given the rising PWATs and respectable dynamics, some heavier downpours are possible. So a wet day overall, especially this afternoon. While the air mass remains on the warm side, the rain and clouds will hold highs down in the mid to upper 50s in most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Trying to figure out how you get an all day heavy rainer that only two days ago was a 30% chance of scattered shower of .10-.25" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: Trying to figure out how you get an all day heavy rainer that only two days ago was a 30% chance of scattered shower of .10-.25" The same way we picked up less than an inch last week when 2" was forecasted...delayed but not denied. .25" so far, 53F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Put the front door screen in this morning along w/a couple windows. All open with a steady rain falling, relaxing sound. Hopefully wash away some pollen. Good day to just get stuff done around the house... 57F/mod rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Heavier stuff moving up...wouldn't mind a solid downpour. 57F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Downpour.... 56F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Yeah, flat out pouring right now. Perhaps the heaviest rain since Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 12z Monday GFS forecast 0.0" through 0z Thursday NAM was .20" Canadian and ICON were wet. This was dropping the ball and your own player recovering then fumbling to the opposing player running it in for 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Actually have some slight ponding in the yard...haven't seen that in a while. Oh yeah, Flyers suck... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Over an inch now and counting, 55F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Trying to figure out how you get an all day heavy rainer that only two days ago was a 30% chance of scattered shower of .10-.25" I'm thinking the same thing. I don't follow the models as closely in spring but it seems this heavy rain event came out of nowhere. Flat out pouring the last hour or two with no signs of letting up soon. Will probably finish easily over an inch of qpf. Wtf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 2.20" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Flooding lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 I told "family member" Monday to go ahead and seed and stuff cause only a scattered shower chance for today...seeds in the creek 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1.68" here today - we did need some rain. Eta - the last shaded snow pile went bye bye today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Use caution tomorrow morning, my local forecast has "The drizzle could be heavy at times" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 It was nice to see things trend wetter as we moved closer. Picked up 1.30" of rain so far today. Current temp 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Use caution tomorrow morning, my local forecast has "The drizzle could be heavy at times" Roundabout way of saying fog... 54F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Picked up 1.31" of rain for the day. Current temp 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Interesting discussion from Mt. Holly for both Friday and Sunday. Model soundings suggest winds will be increasing in this regime, readily gusting to 35+ mph by afternoon. As winds begin to veer, diurnal mixing peaks, and a reinforcing cold front approaches the area, speeds will likely exceed advisory criteria in much of the area. Winds at 850 mb will be approaching 50 kt, and mixing has the potential to reach or even exceed this level. Seems likely we will need a wind advisory for Friday afternoon and evening, and if mixing ends up being more efficient than currently advertised, a rogue severe-caliber gust may occur. Held off on issuing wind headlines early this morning given ongoing/near-term weather, but expect wind products to be issued for the afternoon package. Winds should decrease fairly rapidly Friday night as the migratory surface low takes the strong pressure gradient with it to our northeast. Strong cold advection will be occurring in the post-frontal regime, but winds will not entirely decouple. Thus, kept Friday night lows fairly warm, generally in the 40s to around 50. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A fairly strong system will affect the region on Sunday, though the surface cyclone should lift well north of the region. Nevertheless, upper dynamics look fairly impressive as an initially positively-tilted trough begins to pivot to a more neutral tilt as it approaches the East Coast during the day. A 100+ kt speed max at 500 mb will nose into the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon, collocated with a surging cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. As warm advection races north in the developing warm sector, convection should readily develop along the attendant warm/cold fronts. Widespread precipitation should occur in New England and the Mid-Atlantic in this setup, with areal QPF likely exceeding a half inch across the CWA (locally much higher amounts possible). Will need to watch this system closely, as both severe and hydro issues may be present depending on the usual timing/track issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Finished with 1.55" yesterday sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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