eyewall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Our shortwave is in AZ now: http://weather.cod.edu/loops/US-WV.loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Actually, there are a good number of members along and east of 95. So any updates are appreciated. Yeah, its hard to tell how the models look for the eastern carolinas to the coast because when it looks bad for the western carolinas everyone freaks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, its hard to tell how the models look for the eastern carolinas to the coast because when it looks bad for the western carolinas everyone freaks out. I think with a less amplified solution there may be more in the way of p-type issues in eastern NC at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Our shortwave is in AZ now: http://weather.cod.e...US-WV.loop.html check out how strong the vortex is off New England. I'd be very happy with this setup if we didn't have an incoming northern stream. Just the upper low coming due east or east/southeast from this point on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 0Z Ukie implies a rare coastal SE significant snow. I didn't see it mentioned. 12z UKIE is a complete miss (not counting trace amounts) Can you post the hr 66 panel for the ensemble mean? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Our shortwave is in AZ now: http://weather.cod.e...US-WV.loop.html Yea looks like it might just be a hair north of where the Euro was placing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 check out how strong the vortex is off New England. I'd be very happy with this setup if we didn't have an incoming northern stream. Just the upper low coming due east or east/southeast from this point on. I know what you mean. Would you agree it is moving at a decent clip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Can you post the hr 66 panel for the ensemble mean? Here's 60, it runs in 12 hour increments. At 48 the 850 line runs from Cullman AL-northern ATL burbs-CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Here's 60, it runs in 12 hour increments. At 48 the 850 line runs from Cullman AL-northern ATL burbs-CLT Thanks. Looks ok for my backyard, we are on the line with temps but I dont think it should be an issue. The ensembles dont look bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I know what you mean. Would you agree it is moving at a decent clip? yeah. It should be in northwest texas in 24 or less. After that I bet all models are having a hard time what to do with it. Something interesting can still happen, so its still definitely worth paying close attention to. I'd like to see it slower to give the northern stream a better chance, I'm afraid its going to outrun the first northern s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yeah. It should be in northwest texas in 24 or less. After that I bet all models are having a hard time what to do with it. Something interesting can still happen, so its still definitely worth paying close attention to. I'd like to see it slower to give the northern stream a better chance, I'm afraid its going to outrun the first northern s/w. is there anything that you can see that would cause it to slow down, robert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yeah. It should be in northwest texas in 24 or less. After that I bet all models are having a hard time what to do with it. Something interesting can still happen, so its still definitely worth paying close attention to. I'd like to see it slower to give the northern stream a better chance, I'm afraid its going to outrun the first northern s/w. It very well could. In my discussion posted earlier I was thinking the phase issues were due to an ULL in the northern stream that holds some of that energy back for too long. That was of course especially seen in the NAM. I am watching that aspect as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The southern stream wave looks like its trying to catch an airplane or a train... its booking it east... http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdevil Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Our shortwave is looking very healthy. It will be very interesting to watch what happens with this. I do notice that the sw is slightly north of where Euro had it placed. But im having a hard time believing that the northern stream shears apart our sw. I would not be surprised if a phase did happen. Let's see if the Euro gives us any hints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's going to be really interesting watching the Euro crap all over itself in a few minutes. So here's a question: at 18Z, things looked to be taking a turn for the better. Now the wheels have come off. Is it possible that the northern stream wave was in an area that still wasn't sampled well in today's 12Z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Question... When is our northern stream going to be in the US RAOB network? From what I can see, it looks like another 18hrs. NCEP status message normally list 31 Canadian reports, compared to 72 American. That is why I am asking as the the data coverage in Canada is not what it is in the states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yeah. It should be in northwest texas in 24 or less. After that I bet all models are having a hard time what to do with it. Something interesting can still happen, so its still definitely worth paying close attention to. I'd like to see it slower to give the northern stream a better chance, I'm afraid its going to outrun the first northern s/w. Since the models have been having a hard time with the stream interactions I know they may not be handling it well. After reading the HPC disco from this morning theres an interesting piece in there about the northern stream energy. Curious to know what your thoughts are on this clip from the HPC because it sounds to me like there could still be some real changes in the modeling for another run or 2. ACROSS THE EAST...MODEL SPREAD HAS SLOWLY NARROWED CONCERNING THE TRACK AND OTHER DETAILS CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE EAST COAST DAYS 3-4. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER AND EASTWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN-MON...WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER AND WESTWARD...WITH THE 06Z GFS REPRESENTING A CONSENSUS OF 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND NEARLY OVERLAPS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN ARE SUFFICIENTLY FAR OUT TO SEA TO HAVE ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS OVER LAND. GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL SUITES AND THAT THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE HAS NARROWED TO ROUGHLY INCLUDE JUST THESE MODELS IF WE CONSIDER THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL...THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE 06Z GFS. THIS PATH CLIPS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA/NEW JERSEY WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST...BUT HITS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN THAT ONLY A SMALL SHIFT IN THE EXACT TRACK WILL HAVE PROFOUND INFLUENCES ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND THAT PORTIONS OF THE EVOLVING UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ARE ONLY NOW ENTERING THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE REDUCTION IN THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 MODEL CYCLES...BEGINNING WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. UNTIL THEN...RECOMMEND CONSIDERING A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES THAT INCLUDES THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE STRONG/WESTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nice find. Goes with what NCW stated above also.. Since the models have been having a hard time with the stream interactions I know they may not be handling it well. After reading the HPC disco from this morning theres an interesting piece in there about the northern stream energy. Curious to know what your thoughts are on this clip from the HPC because it sounds to me like there could still be some real changes in the modeling for another run or 2. ACROSS THE EAST...MODEL SPREAD HAS SLOWLY NARROWED CONCERNING THE TRACK AND OTHER DETAILS CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE EAST COAST DAYS 3-4. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER AND EASTWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN-MON...WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER AND WESTWARD...WITH THE 06Z GFS REPRESENTING A CONSENSUS OF 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND NEARLY OVERLAPS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN ARE SUFFICIENTLY FAR OUT TO SEA TO HAVE ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS OVER LAND. GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL SUITES AND THAT THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE HAS NARROWED TO ROUGHLY INCLUDE JUST THESE MODELS IF WE CONSIDER THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL...THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE 06Z GFS. THIS PATH CLIPS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA/NEW JERSEY WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST...BUT HITS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN THAT ONLY A SMALL SHIFT IN THE EXACT TRACK WILL HAVE PROFOUND INFLUENCES ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND THAT PORTIONS OF THE EVOLVING UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ARE ONLY NOW ENTERING THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE REDUCTION IN THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 MODEL CYCLES...BEGINNING WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. UNTIL THEN...RECOMMEND CONSIDERING A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES THAT INCLUDES THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE STRONG/WESTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 0Z Ukie implies a rare coastal SE significant snow. I didn't see it mentioned. Yes there are a quite a few members that reside on the SE/south coast, of NC/SC/GA.... I KNEW I shouldn't of went oystering yesterday afternoon, came back, after a few hours of rest, saw the cliff diving et al by everyone after those Model runs last night... So yes, My 100 lb test/3 hook Lock-on went slack.... all 3 TV Met station ALL have differing forcast's for this event, rain/mix, nothing until the day after Christamas, and Snow starting late on Christmas day, even they are waffling..... though ALL are saying a high chance of snow of Sunday,almost 100%,,,, or the cold chasing the Precip... Kilm AFD current as of 12:15PM today.... Short term /Friday through Saturday night/... as of 3 am Thursday...high pressure and Delaware-amplifying upper pattern in place on Friday. Flow remains northerly with weak warm advection not starting until late Friday night. Limited air mass modification on Friday...hindered by increasing high cloud later in the afternoon. Highs on Friday will be very similar if not slightly cooler than Thursday given temperatures starting out 5 to 10 degrees Friday morning. Aforementioned high cloud continues to thicken up Friday night. Increase in clouds and weak warm advection after midnight will hold lows in the upper 20s to around 30. Second half of the forecast continues to be problematic. Very little agreement between the NAM/GFS/ECMWF/Canadian solutions...some of which also lack run to run consistency. Have decided to lean in favor of a NAM/European model (ecmwf) blend...which his close to but slightly faster than yesterdays HPC solution. Additionally...a portion of the GFS ensembles support a similar solution. As a side note...the 00z operational GFS is one of the fastest solutions when compared to its ensemble members and is being discounted at this time. Feel fairly confident precipitation will not be an issue Christmas day and that highs will range from close to 50 near to the coast to around 40 far inland. Combination of Arctic air mass and expected slow evolution of storm system will probably delay the onset of precipitation until Sat evening. Track/timing/strength of the system will determine what happens and so far do not have a good handle on this. Current forecast calls for rain changing to rain snow or all snow Sat night. This is not much of a change from previous forecast. Still way to early to start talking about potential snowfall amounts...especially as this will be highly dependent on track. Lows will be near to just below freezing Sat night. Despite all the uncertainty there is some good news. The feature that is ultimately responsible for developing the storm has moved over the southwestern US and will be sampled by 12z radiosonde observations. By this time tomorrow this should help provide a clearer picture as to what impact the storm will have on the Carolinas. && Long term /Sunday through Thursday/... as of 3 am Thursday...beginning of the period will be dominated by storm system affecting the southeastern US. Still a lot of uncertainty with respect to the storm...but it seems likely that a large portion of the area will see some snow as the low passes offshore. Still unsure as to how much and exactly when...but these are details that should become clearer within the next 24 hours. Solution between the faster GFS and slower European model (ecmwf) is favored... with low pressure deepening off the southeast coast at the start of the period. Latest European model (ecmwf) is a little faster...especially from Sun night on and only hints at some lingering flurries for Monday. Current Obs........ 43.9 °F Clear Windchill:35 °F Humidity:53% Dew Point:28 °F Wind:22.9 mph from the North Wind Gust:26.7 mph Pressure:30.09 in (Steady) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 is there anything that you can see that would cause it to slow down, robert? once it gets into Texas it should start to feel the effects of the incoming northern stream. Right now we don't know how that interaction is going to be , since all the models handle it vastly differently. One of the biggest most likely options IMO, is that the incoming northern stream is going to shunt our upper low toward the southeast Coast of Texas , and then the northern stream is going to start "skimming off the top" of this upper low, meaning a little bit of moisture will get swept across the Southeast and Tenn. Valley, but leave the southern stream slowing down as it rolls across the gulf Coast. Meanwhile the next packet of energy in the northern stream is going to dig even further south and thats the piece that will end up catching the Gulf low (which by now may not be healthy looking) and thats the storm that could just clip Georgia and the eastern Carolinas. Its really a total guessing game now though since all models handle it so differently. If we were to get really lucky like the euro was showing for so long, then that Texas low would hold very in tact, and get picked up by the northern stream as its in the Northeast gulf of Mexico, really start to bomb up the east coast. But right now, all models don't have enough consolidated northern stream energy, or have it far enough west, to do that. That could still happen though. Can't be totally ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 as we sit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @12 looks like our northern energy might be holding back a tad compared to 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 once it gets into Texas it should start to feel the effects of the incoming northern stream. Right now we don't know how that interaction is going to be , since all the models handle it vastly differently. One of the biggest most likely options IMO, is that the incoming northern stream is going to shunt our upper low toward the southeast Coast of Texas , and then the northern stream is going to start "skimming off the top" of this upper low, meaning a little bit of moisture will get swept across the Southeast and Tenn. Valley, but leave the southern stream slowing down as it rolls across the gulf Coast. Meanwhile the next packet of energy in the northern stream is going to dig even further south and thats the piece that will end up catching the Gulf low (which by now may not be healthy looking) and thats the storm that could just clip Georgia and the eastern Carolinas. Its really a total guessing game now though since all models handle it so differently. If we were to get really lucky like the euro was showing for so long, then that Texas low would hold very in tact, and get picked up by the northern stream as its in the Northeast gulf of Mexico, really start to bomb up the east coast. But right now, all models don't have enough consolidated northern stream energy, or have it far enough west, to do that. That could still happen though. Can't be totally ruled out. my understanding of this just rose exponentially! thanks for couching that i terms that allowed me the opportunity to get a 'visual" on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Do the eastern carolinas get in on the action per the ukie? I've quietly been watching all this from typically-snow-free Cape Fear and wondering...but I greatly suspect, even with a good track there won't be enough cold air to help us out. Perhaps the southern coast sees a bit of wrap-around snow at the end...maybe even enough to cover the ground for a while before melting...but that's the most I expect. Truth be told, I'd rather see you folks in the Piedmont enjoy a good snowstorm than have a dinky snow here. Good luck to all of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Out to 24 our low looks a little stronger in Tx...but my eyes might just be playing tricks on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @30 low looks more north and maybe more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just looks to me @30 like the energy around Iowa is moving south faster then the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @36 our low looks strong and is north of 00z it's around souther OK on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 per main thread "hr 24 has a closed h5 low just sw of amarillo....0z euro wasn't closed off yet at hr 36... " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow....I mean at 36, the two players are right there..staring each other in the face.....if we could just get them to shake hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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