Christmas Storm V

[Jon]

00z

06z

[AirNelson39]

00z

06z

Yep not even as much ridging up into canada, looks worse really. Well euro fooled us all and gfs tried to lure us back in as well. What a week

[Jon]

06z does look better for eastern Carolinas only because of that extra precip that was once over VA in the 00z run....low is OTS @ 1001 vs the 1004 in the 00z...wish one of the 4 mets viewing the thread weren't afk so they could do the PBP...I know squat!

06z might be better for the NE...then again that's 60+ hours out for them. Oh well, bed time!

00z

06z

[DaculaWeather]

Looking at the SPC map, it appears the low dropped south and merged with a low over northern Mexico. You can see the progression here. Like I said the view is a little rough but here's the last 14 hours http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_loop.php

[Rankin5150]

I am starting to actually feel a little better about this system having more precip to it. I will leave this up to the Pro's to dissect, but it looks like things are cranking up over texas and Kansas. Is that phasing with a shortwave taking place over the Kansas? Regardless, it looks like we will have a better shot at having more QPF in our areas if this thing holds together. I will be curious for someones input on these radar trends?

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

Thanks

[Rankin5150]

Looking at the SPC map, it appears the low dropped south and merged with a low over northern Mexico. You can see the progression here. Like I said the view is a little rough but here's the last 14 hours http://www.daculawea.../storm_loop.php

Wow...you and I are drinking from the same fountain! I just now posted a similar comment with a crappy intellicast link. What does this mean (the lows merging?)?

Thanks

[DaculaWeather]

I'm not sure yet. I really wasn't expecting the precip to start in the places it's starting. I've created a wide view radar of the south, you can drag the map a little to the west to see the precip forming out that direction.

We'll see how this develops as the morning goes along, I just moved my GRLevel3 radar pages to Nashville, Memphis, and Birmingham, they should be looping by around 6am. It takes a little while to get all the images in place. Sorry!

In the meantime, please use the wide view Google radar

[lilj4425]

Check out this little tidbit from GSP:

THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT MOST...THOUGH NOT ALL...OF THE ENERGY

WITH THE SRN STREAM LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL DROP SOUTH

OF THE REGION. ONE THING I FIND INTERESTING IS THAT PCPN IS MORE

WIDESPREAD THEN PROGGED BY EITHER MODEL ACROSS SE KS AND SW MO ATTM.

THIS IS THE RESULT OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY

LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND PHASING WITH THE SHORT WAVE NOW

DIVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE

EXPANDING AREA OF PCPN COULD BE A SIGN OF A WETTER SYSTEM MOVING

TOWARD THE AREA CHRISTMAS MORNING.

[DaculaWeather]

Winter Storm Watch for the plateau of Tennessee.

[DaculaWeather]

Check out this little tidbit from GSP:

THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT MOST...THOUGH NOT ALL...OF THE ENERGY

WITH THE SRN STREAM LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL DROP SOUTH

OF THE REGION. ONE THING I FIND INTERESTING IS THAT PCPN IS MORE

WIDESPREAD THEN PROGGED BY EITHER MODEL ACROSS SE KS AND SW MO ATTM.

THIS IS THE RESULT OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY

LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND PHASING WITH THE SHORT WAVE NOW

DIVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE

EXPANDING AREA OF PCPN COULD BE A SIGN OF A WETTER SYSTEM MOVING

TOWARD THE AREA CHRISTMAS MORNING.

Exactly what I was thinking.

[DaculaWeather]

Here's where we've been

[Rankin5150]

Check out this little tidbit from GSP:

THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT MOST...THOUGH NOT ALL...OF THE ENERGY

WITH THE SRN STREAM LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL DROP SOUTH

OF THE REGION. ONE THING I FIND INTERESTING IS THAT PCPN IS MORE

WIDESPREAD THEN PROGGED BY EITHER MODEL ACROSS SE KS AND SW MO ATTM.

THIS IS THE RESULT OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY

LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND PHASING WITH THE SHORT WAVE NOW

DIVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE

EXPANDING AREA OF PCPN COULD BE A SIGN OF A WETTER SYSTEM MOVING

TOWARD THE AREA CHRISTMAS MORNING.

Good catch Lillj. I did not think to look over there. I made a coment a few posts ago about that on the radar. Hopefully this bodes well for us down the road. We may be thanking Kansas and MO if we get a white Christmas!

[DaculaWeather]

Lots of precip from our shortwave over Iowa http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_iowa_regional_master.php

[DaculaWeather]

New BMX AFD

FXUS64 KBMX 241048AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

448 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

STORM SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS

MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS WHAT WILL BE AFFECTING CENTRAL ALABAMA IN

LESS THAN 48 HOURS AND COULD BRING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO

PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

STATISTICALLY SPEAKING...THERE HAS NOT BEEN A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR

CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR AS LONG AS RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT. SOME

LOCATIONS HAVE COME CLOSE THOUGH...MOSTLY FLURRIES AND LIGHT

AMOUNTS THAT DID NOT MEASURE. SO...HISTORY IS NOT IN OUR FAVOR.

UNFORTUNATELY...COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE

LIKELIHOOD THAT ONCE AGAIN...THIS YEAR WILL NOT BE A WHITE

CHRISTMAS. SNOW DOES LOOK LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY BUT IT IS NOT

EXPECTED TO MEASURE ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER YESTERDAY'S RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWED A STRONG SURFACE LOW

PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...IT HAS SINCE BACKED

OFF FROM THAT SOLUTION. IN FACT...THE ENTIRE SUITE OF MODELS WHICH

ALSO INCLUDES THE GFS...NAM...AND GEM ARE COMING INTO A GENERAL

AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS

STRONG AND THAT IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH FROM THE MAIN UPPER

LEVEL TROF. SO WE CAN BEGIN TO SCRATCH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE

SCENARIO. COULD MODELS TREND BACK TO THAT? YES...BUT THAT IS

HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND AGREEMENT BY ALL THE

MODELS.

NOW...WHAT MODELS ARE ACTUALLY PROJECTING IS THAT A SERIES OF

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROF

COULD SQUEEZE OUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF

RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW (COULD BE ALL SNOW AT TIMES) BEGINNING LATE

TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS

MODEL SOUNDING...TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE HOOVERING AROUND

NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE COULD BUILD DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE

COLD LAYER TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. SNOW FALL

FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS LOOK A LITTLE LESS LIKELY DUE TO WARMER

TEMPERATURES. THESE AREAS INCLUDE SELMA...MONTGOMERY AND TROY.

THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DOESN'T DO SO UNTIL MUCH FARTHER DOWN THE

ROAD AND WHEN THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY TOO FAR AWAY FROM CENTRAL

ALABAMA.

SO...AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL DATA WHICH INCLUDING SOUNDINGS...MOS

AND RAW OUTPUT...HERE'S WHERE WE CURRENTLY STAND. PRECIPITATION

WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT

TONIGHT...WITH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES SWITCHING TO EITHER

RAIN OR SNOW CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL

EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF

MONTGOMERY. THE MAIN PATCH OF PRECIP EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY

AFTERNOON...BUT SNOW FLURRIES OR EVEN BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS

WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE

MAIN TROF BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

WHAT BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR IS FOR SOME FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW

CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. NO TRAVEL

CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS PROJECTED.

[DaculaWeather]

All three (4 including FFC) of the GRLevel3 loops are now working.

[SuperNET]

All three (4 including FFC) of the GRLevel3 loops are now working.

You have a really nice website.....I like the KML data feeds into google maps.

[DaculaWeather]

The precip to our west is growing in both intensity and coverage. http://www.daculawea...wide_master.php This loop loads 36 radar sites, let everything load and wait for the loop to start smoothly looping, then drag the map so you can see what's out west.And don't forget that you can zoom in to see details.

It's really starting to dig around San Angelo TX

You can start to see that on this 300mb isotach map:

[DaculaWeather]

You have a really nice website.....I like the KML data feeds into google maps.

Thank you sir!

[DaculaWeather]

You can also see the wind direction change here

[DaculaWeather]

New GSP AFD 6:45

New FFC AFD 6:50

[DaculaWeather]

We need to get this thing to tilt, it's in the wrong direction right now.

[packfan98]

Points to remember:

1 - Most systems over the past few months have overperformed with precipitation. I know this system has a different setup than the previous ones, but it is worth watching.

2 - The models have a tendency to try to play catch-up in the 24 hours prior to a storm and precip amounts tend to increase. Don't forget that going from .2 to .3 inches of precip can cause an extra inch of snow or more with higher ratios.

3 - Shifts of 20-30 miles would not be out of the ordinary in this timeframe. With a sharp cut-off of good moisture on the west side predicted, this could take away or add some good snow for some major cities (CLT, GSO, RDU, etc...)

4 - Systems have also moved in faster than models have predicted. This may have been model bias with clipper systems, but this could have an impact on our northern stream energy and timing of a possible phase.

With at least some snow predicted for areas of the southeast, I know I will still be keeping an eye on the weather. I'm trying not to wishcast but to at least mention what I've noticed in the past. Merry Christmas everyone!!

[Solak]

Good Christmas Eve morning, everyone. Once again, thanks for all your input overnight.

Current local forecast here just SE of Raleigh is calling for rain Christmas day changing over at night. Another thing I've noticed this morning is that there is no longer any talk of a deformation zone setting up in any of the local AFDs. It got a little colder than forecast last night. Been sitting on 21° here at KJNX since 4:56AM --- currently 21/21

Looks like the new HPC numbers have lessened/shifted further East.

[DaculaWeather]

21 hour storm loop - http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_loop.php

[DaculaWeather]

Seems like there is/was two pieces of energy, one in Minnesota and the other one in Missouri, they're beginning to combine and drop south.

[DaculaWeather]

i am certainly no expert, but to my weenie eyes, this doesn't look too bad right now. I'm not seeing the cold air yet, I'm assuming the dropping shortwave will pull it down.

[strongwxnc]

Great disco over night Folks. Gametime forecast I see.

This is GSP as of 6:16am

Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Calm wind becoming south between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[DaculaWeather]

In this latest frame from SPC, you can see the low taking shape in southern TX

[farleydawg79]

Looking at this radar...looks like the low is getting ramped up... I sure hope we are all underestimating this event.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php

[NavarreDon]

I am def. no expert but, if you compare the current radar returns to the sim. radar in the last model runs there seems to be more moisture outside of Texas. Don't know if this means anything or not. Maybe a Met. or someone with more knowledge could speak on this. I know GSP has this in there AFD....just seems to be continuing. (hoping the models may have underestimated the precip shield & give someone a little more moisture)