Christmas Storm V

[eyewall]

I have a sneaking suspicion this won't be a whole lot different than the NAM but we shall see.

[MotoWeatherman]

At 39 hr GFS has northern stream shortwave diving south thru eastern Kansas. Let's see what happens....

[bingcrosbyb]

@ 36, vort suddenly moves over to TX/LA border. No LP yet. I wonder if we get a phase. Northern stream looks pretty strong and may crush it. Again.

[MotoWeatherman]

At 42hr GFS has northern stream SW diving into Arkansas. This run will be wetter than NAM...guaranteed.

[bingcrosbyb]

Oh man oh man. Looking good @ 42HR. Phase please.

[NEGa]

Sorry if said something wrong, just wanted to discuss the upcoming storm.

You just came in at a bad time whennmost of us are tired and pretty darn irritated that the storm showing up for days has gone poof and now most of us will be lucky with a flake

[MotoWeatherman]

GFS has a swatch of >.25" QPF from central MS thrun central AL thru ATL to north of Augusta.

[Shawn]

So closeeeee @ 42.

[Wow]

ooh i like that back side s/w..

[MotoWeatherman]

At hr 51 GFS has sharper trough diving south with 546 500 height diving south into AL. Much further west than NAM so the QPF is better.

[bingcrosbyb]

00z GFS @ 42HR. Very, very close.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_042l.gif

[NEGa]

At 42hr GFS has northern stream SW diving into Arkansas. This run will be wetter than NAM...guaranteed.

Well it won't take much to be wetter than the last nam i can't believe that after today's nightmare runs at i am even still looking at a stupid model

[MotoWeatherman]

Maps if you got em' please. Thx for the PBP mets!

I'm using Storm Vista right now so can't post those. THE NCEP maps are free. Just google NCEP models. Not sure how far out they are yet though.

[MotoWeatherman]

Well it won't take much to be wetter than the last nam i can't believe that after today's nightmare runs at i am even still looking at a stupid model

Last minute bail out??? Can't give up unless we are 18 hours away...then throw in the towel.

[eyewall]

GFS keeps the southern stream s/w from being sheared at the 39 hour mark. This is around the time the NAM was killing it.

[jrips27]

I using Storm Vista right now so can't post those. THE NCEP maps are free. Just google NCEP models. Not sure how far out they are yet though.

NCEP only out to 42.. anxiously awaiting hour 48

[FoothillsNC]

The GFS is close to it at 5H and surface for pulling the Christmas miracle for Georgia and the Carolinas. So extremely close.

[bingcrosbyb]

@ 48, the GFS has the northern stream crush our vort instead of phasing. Again. Model bias still? Or reality? Still wetter.

[NCSNOW]

ooh i like that back side s/w..

Yep, phase works when NS comes in behind Southern stream. been opposite all day.

[MotoWeatherman]

At 57 hour 540 heights are diving into GA. QPF much better this run. In GA for example pretty every where from Lanier South has >.25" QPF.

[FoothillsNC]

if the 60 hour is right, we're not done. I'd say somethng is ripe for part of Georgia and Carolinas. The flow backs enough west in time to allow the southern stream to develop near the Fl. panhandle. I don't think its handling this exactly right, so theres room either way, but if the southern vort is in tact at all at 48 to 60 hours down there, then this could be a HUGE suprise for somebody

[MotoWeatherman]

At HR 63 GFS has 534 closed 500mb low over KY. NAM had this much further east.

[jrips27]

Looks better... At least its something! Will see what the exact QPF is when it comes out on Raleigh's site... Are the temps cold enough for all snow in the north ATL burbs?

[Rankin5150]

The overall setup looks better on the 0z GFS run! I am staying up for the Euro. This one is not written off yet IMO...

[MotoWeatherman]

GFS Atlanta sounding for 7am Saturday...looks cold enough to me to start as SNOW....just about wet bulb zero to the surface. If it did start as rain it wouldn't last long.

Date: 36 hour GFS valid 12Z SAT 25 DEC 10
Station: Katl
Latitude:   33.65
Longitude: -84.42
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   149                                                                 
SFC  985   270   1.7  -1.6  79  3.2   0.4 293   5 276.0 276.6 274.3 285.5  3.45
 2  950   564   3.1  -4.2  59  7.2   0.2 291  11 280.3 280.8 275.9 288.6  2.95
 3  850  1458   1.4 -11.1  39 12.5  -2.9 258  25 287.6 288.0 278.3 293.4  1.93
 4  800  1946   1.3  -3.0  73  4.3  -0.6 255  33 292.5 293.2 282.9 303.7  3.82
 5  750  2465  -0.0  -0.5  97  0.5  -0.2 259  38 296.6 297.5 285.7 311.1  4.92
 6  700  3016  -2.6  -3.0  97  0.4  -2.8 261  39 299.6 300.4 286.3 312.7  4.38
 7  650  3600  -6.2  -7.2  92  1.0  -6.6 262  44 302.0 302.6 286.2 312.5  3.43
 8  600  4222  -9.6 -11.0  89  1.4 -10.1 265  52 305.0 305.5 286.6 313.6  2.75
 9  550  4889 -14.2 -15.2  92  1.1 -14.5 265  59 307.2 307.6 286.8 314.0  2.12
10  500  5605 -18.9 -19.6  95  0.6 -19.1 264  60 309.9 310.3 287.2 315.2  1.62
11  450  6382 -24.2 -24.4  98  0.2 -24.2 262  58 312.8 313.0 287.7 316.7  1.18
12  400  7230 -30.4 -30.5  99  0.1 -30.4 257  60 315.5 315.7 288.1 318.1  0.76
13  300  9204 -47.8 -48.0  98  0.2 -47.8 262  69 318.0 318.0 288.3 318.6  0.17

14 250 10388 -53.4 -56.8 66 3.4 -53.5 258 93 326.6 326.6 290.8 326.9 0.07

[Snow Girl]

Aww Thanks Chuck ^^^^^^^!!!!♥ I have been lurking but I felt like I would let all the more knowledgable Mets and poster take over and I had a feeling if I posted that it may Jinx us so that is why I was holding off on posting. But hey I figure now since all the models have changed Im gonna come off my strike. LOL!! Well my thinking is and has been that this storm is a very mean strong storm as we can tell that from all that it did to California. And to me I just dont think this is over for all of us yet. Im not throwing in the towel on this till the Big Fat lady sings and her appointment with me is when she pass by the Cape and on up into VA. So Im not giving up and neither should any of yall. We all know that models are tools to help us perdict the weather they are not gonna be 100 percent perfect and we knew they were gonna flip flop and they always loose good storms and alot of times bring them back. This still has a good chance in my book. You never know this is Chirstmas and everything is magical at Chirstmas time so we may end up with some decent snow. A 2 foot snow would be awesome but I will be happy as ever to just see some snow flying on Christmas. What is more magical than seeing snow in the SE on Christmas?? That is pretty Historical in itself. So if I only see a dusting or 2 feet I will be happy!!! And we all know this pattern is gonna be with us for a while and that may mean lots of snow for us in Jan.. Dec. snow is just Bonus snow. And especially a true Bonus during Christmas time!!!! So keep the faith and you never know what Santa may have up his sleeve!!!!!!!!!!! Merry Christmas to All of my great friends in the SE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!♥♥♥♥

Snow Girl

[MotoWeatherman]

me bail, not likely....i may be whining now but i am still here for the gfs while i am thinking negatively I still have that last gasp of hope for some christmas snow.

I meant that the "model" was going to bail us out and delivery...maybe.

[bingcrosbyb]

The way the GFS shows the northern stream coming from behind the southern vort is VERY good. IF they phase earlier in AL, BOOOOOOM!!!!! Perhaps the GFS isn't handling the phase properly.

[MotoWeatherman]

Looks better... At least its something! Will see what the exact QPF is when it comes out on Raleigh's site... Are the temps cold enough for all snow in the north ATL burbs?

I think so.

[superjames1992]

What's up with the 2.5" of rainfall in the DFW area? Seems kind of odd.