Christmas Storm V

[NCSNOW]

Love how the Nam dryslots the whole southeast, the one Christmas we actually have it cold enough for snow,

[superjames1992]

Are any of you mets able to look at the short term models...WRF, RUC, and others? How do they compare to what the NAM showed?

Agree...NAM off its rocker??? Just curious...I'm not that good at the fine details the short range models show.

0z RUC at 18 hours:

1z RUC at 18 hours:

[WXinCanton]

At least we will always remember the as the Euro bust of "Christmas 2010". I will say that if I see a single flake fly on 12/25 It will be a little icing on the cake.. Merry Christmas everyone!

[Shawn]

At least we will always remember the as the Euro bust of "Christmas 2010". I will say that if I see a single flake fly on 12/25 It will be a little icing on the cake.. Merry Christmas everyone!

We can't really consider the Euro a bust since it didn't hold the solution until the date. It changed. =/

[audioguy3107]

At least we will always remember the as the Euro bust of "Christmas 2010". I will say that if I see a single flake fly on 12/25 It will be a little icing on the cake.. Merry Christmas everyone!

Let's all just enjoy our partly to mostly cloudy sky Christmas and write this one off. I really did think we would get some type of excitement.....jeeeeez...at least with severe weather we don't have to have 50,000 ingredients come together within a millisecond of each other to have any excitement. This was really really frustrating. All we can do is hope for some surprise, but who are we kidding here?

[WXinCanton]

We can't really consider the Euro a bust since it didn't hold the solution until the date. It changed. =/

you are correct. but Christmas 2010 will be referenced for years to come

[eyewall]

WRAL is in the process of their walk down:

http://www.wral.com/weather/story/8818848/

[NEGa]

I won't completely right this off until we are under 24 hours. Huge fail though! It gets where I don't trust anything unless it's under 24 hours away.

well i havent written off per se, i am sure i will be watching through tomorrow, since for some reason i seem to enjoy inflicting emotional pain upon myself. i just wish we would end up with enough moisture to at least muster up a 1/2 - 1 (yeah lowering my standards again, but this is about it, they cant get much lower lol)

i would say a huge fail, esp for the consistent euro. other models have been wacky - even with the advances in technology, it would seem that we still cant trust a model until 24 hours away or less even earlier today the others were at least putting down some moisture around here

When does the Euro come out?

are you serious? why bother lol

besides, this question has been asked and answered, with links posted, at least 5 times during the last two days

[WidreMann]

For those championing the RUC, it still has the northern stream too fast, so it will just result in the southern s/w getting sheared out.

[KChuck]

Found reason for all of our GFS shortcomings. ;-) Interesting read from the Weather F & D category page per error found in GFS calculations, albeit at 192 hours...

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1526Z THU DEC 23 2010 ATTN...GFS MODEL INFORMATION.. AN INCONSISTENCY HAS BEEN UNCOVERED IN THE GFS 12 HR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AT FORECAST HOUR 192. THE 12 HR ACCUMULATION DOES NOT REPRODUCE THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS 2 SIX HOUR ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ERROR WAS INTRODUCED WITH THE 27 JULY RESOLUTION INCREASE. WE HOPE TO IMPLEMENT A CORRECTION BY THE END OF JANUARY, 2011. AN ANNOUNCEMENT WITH THE ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION DATE WILL BE MADE AS SOON AS IT IS DETERMINED. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ADDRESSED TO [email protected]

[Rankin5150]

Found reason for all of our GFS shortcomings. ;-) Interesting read from the Weather F & D category page per error found in GFS calculations, albeit at 192 hours...

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1526Z THU DEC 23 2010 ATTN...GFS MODEL INFORMATION.. AN INCONSISTENCY HAS BEEN UNCOVERED IN THE GFS 12 HR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AT FORECAST HOUR 192. THE 12 HR ACCUMULATION DOES NOT REPRODUCE THE SUM OF THE PREVIOUS 2 SIX HOUR ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ERROR WAS INTRODUCED WITH THE 27 JULY RESOLUTION INCREASE. WE HOPE TO IMPLEMENT A CORRECTION BY THE END OF JANUARY, 2011. AN ANNOUNCEMENT WITH THE ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION DATE WILL BE MADE AS SOON AS IT IS DETERMINED. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ADDRESSED TO [email protected]

This appears to only be an error with Precip accumulations and not actual data required for what we are needing (phasing, etc.).

[CandymanColumbusGA]

well i havent written off per se, i am sure i will be watching through tomorrow, since for some reason i seem to enjoy inflicting emotional pain upon myself. i just wish we would end up with enough moisture to at least muster up a 1/2 - 1 (yeah lowering my standards again, but this is about it, they cant get much lower lol)

i would say a huge fail, esp for the consistent euro. other models have been wacky - even with the advances in technology, it would seem that we still cant trust a model until 24 hours away or less even earlier today the others were at least putting down some moisture around here

That's what gets me... This thing went from at least being a soaker, to practically NOTHING in the past 24 to 36 hours. Lessons can and will be learned from this...

1. Don't trust models out 3+ days unless they ALL show almost the same thing.

2. Don't count on storms phasing this time of year.

3. We should always let our eyes look to the sky once in a while, rather than the computer screen.

4. That a 100 miles one way or the other results in the perfect set up with rain and snow, to partly cloudy skies...

O well... This is my first such system that I had the pleasure of forecasting to such extent and will have to go back and relearn (or learn since I went to school in FL, not a place you see snow too often) storms phases and all that jazz.... I rather stick with Tropical Systems, at least I can view them and look outside (satellites) and get a pretty good idea as to where it's going.... although intensity is a COMPLETELY different story.

[audioguy3107]

Since we're all wallowing in our misery here, I thought I would start a new thread to get an idea of what everyone on here does for a living, kind of like putting a name to a face. Check it out.

[snowlover91]

Well I for one am excited, could get a solid 4-6" or more here as the GFS gives me .60 of qpf and Euro gives me around .40 so it looks pretty decent for this area in eastern nc.

[eyewall]

Well I for one am excited, could get a solid 4-6" or more here as the GFS gives me .60 of qpf and Euro gives me around .40 so it looks pretty decent for this area in eastern nc.

I do hope you guys get nailed. It would mean another year where I am in the relative snow min of NC at least at this stage. I am just hoping some of the moisture strays into Southern Pines.

[bingcrosbyb]

A lot of the models are about as close to a bombing phase as you can get. Timing really is everything. Shift a few hundred miles here or there. Seems like it's all or nothing at this point for many folks in the SE.

[snowlover91]

I do hope you guys get nailed. It would mean another year where I am in the relative snow min of NC at least at this stage. I am just hoping some of the moisture strays into Southern Pines.

You should come chase down this way!! On my board we have a lot of members in the Pitt county area. Definitely could b a very nice snow for us, but could trend east and miss us still..

[eyewall]

You should come chase down this way!! On my board we have a lot of members in the Pitt county area. Definitely could b a very nice snow for us, but could trend east and miss us still..

Believe me if it is happening within reasonable range I will be chasing (assuming it is a decent hit). We shall see though.

[FoothillsNC]

Percent chance of snow:

[hillbilly weather]

First time poster here. As a avid weather fan and living up here in the mountains, snow is something that we deal with almost weekly. We had snow showers up here most of the day. As to the storm, I just don't the phase taking place until the storm is far east to affect most of anybody outside of the mountains. As usual, the mtns. will rob most of the moisture from the northern stream, and even then I don't look for anything much over 3 in. here. The upslope will add to that Sun and Mon.

[FoothillsNC]

First time poster here. As a avid weather fan and living up here in the mountains, snow is something that we deal with almost weekly. We had snow showers up here most of the day. As to the storm, I just don't the phase taking place until the storm is far east to affect most of anybody outside of the mountains. As usual, the mtns. will rob most of the moisture from the northern stream, and even then I don't look for anything much over 3 in. here. The upslope will add to that Sun and Mon.

[Rankin5150]

RLMAO Robert!! Or how about "only 3" or so"? Your "usual" snow showers Sun/Mon. BaHahahahaha

[eyewall]

GFS has initiated.

[bingcrosbyb]

@ 12HR, GFS is closed off and slightly SW of 12z.

[KChuck]

Wasn't serious with the blame but thought it was still an interesting read. I think some of the casual readers at times believe that our models have some kind of magic in that they can accurately predict the future and too easily throw out the trash talk when something like the Euro's recent runs occur. I feel that they at times do not appreciate the complex code behind the scenes that makes a good attempt at guessing what will happen... I program for a living. We fail to remember that these programs are not much more than statistical analysis of past weather history, attempting to provide a correlation of current and immediate past weather conditions against a database of what has occurred in the past. As you supposedly will not find two fingerprints alike, neither will you find an exact match of current conditions against what has happened in the past. The models make an attempt at providing a best match scenario. I see it as a good thing we have these variations between models that allow you experts (as compared to me!) to determine, based on your experiences and gut feelings, to choose from a variety of model interpretations that interpret the weather using different interpretations of what inputs with their weights determine what our weather will be. As I believe that the weighting will never be the same between two systems, I feel that the models will never be an exact science.... if it ever became that, I fear there'd be a lot of unemployed weathermen! ;-) This drivel was intended for the casual what will it be imby reader and not the talented pros we have on this board. I want to take this time to tell the pros how much I appreciate them sharing their talents and knowledge with us amateur geeks! As to my gut feeling with this impending storm tease, t' ain't over til the fat lady sings, and swayed by my years of buffalo lake effect snows, I'm hoping for a fail going the other way of the models underestimating the snow fall for us all! Woo hoo! What's really been missing in these threads is the input from Snow Girl! Back to our regularly scheduled discussions...

This appears to only be an error with Precip accumulations and not actual data required for what we are needing (phasing, etc.).

[CandymanColumbusGA]

Percent chance of snow:

Love the slight chance of snow through my area.... and almost NOWHERE else in Georgia and Alabama.... wonder why that is? Are they going off what individual WFOs say? Because that is really strange that it essentially starts at the state line.

[kvegas-wx]

Foothills, just hold that high 60-70% chance of snow right over Washington, NC for me. Headed to the inlaws for Christmas! I'll take it!

Man I would love to see a nice shift west in the northern stream this run. C'mon Goofus!!

[HWY316wx]

Am I crazy or is that Northern Piece WEST of Omaha? @ 24

[bingcrosbyb]

@ 24HR, GFS vort is SW of 12z position in central TX.

[lilj4425]

I am astonished at how people on this forum respond to other posters. Im going to stay over at accuweather forums. Have fun bashing one another here!

Oh and northern stream a little further west at hr36.