eyewall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 And right on cue it is shearing out the southern stream wave at 36 and 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am seeing the same. I think it is in part due to the ull in the northern stream over IA/MO. While it doesn't have a closed contour that vort is preventing the energy from really making it south for the phase. agreed. it's was significantly weaker on the Euro "bomb" runs. Basically we need a weaker and/or slower northern s/w and we're in business. It did trend west a tad.. who knows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 at 42 here comes a new nrn stream diving very sharp. In a dream scenario the southern vort would stay put or almost stall, and await this 2nd northern stream to pick it up and pull it up the coast. That could always be a possiblity. Maybe that is why the EURO was picking up the phasing those previous runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 wheres all the precip with the southern stream in southern Alabama and western Fl. panhandle? Theres almost nothing there, which doesn't make since. It can't be that dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 wheres all the precip with the southern stream in southern Alabama and western Fl. panhandle? Theres almost nothing there, which doesn't make since. It can't be that dry. Yeah this run looks by for the worst (thru 45 hr) of any run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 wheres all the precip with the southern stream in southern Alabama and western Fl. panhandle? Theres almost nothing there, which doesn't make since. It can't be that dry. I was thinking the same thing. Perhaps metaphysical convective robbing? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Bulk of the qfp is south of LA in the GOM. Bone dry like you stated... wheres all the precip with the southern stream in southern Alabama and western Fl. panhandle? Theres almost nothing there, which doesn't make since. It can't be that dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 and poof goes the qpf...this has got to be one of the most frustrating obsessions (by far worse than golf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Bulk of the qfp is south of LA in the GOM. Bone dry like you stated... Hard to believe that same system just pounded California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 At 51hr the northern shortwave starts to dig due south thru GA as it absorbs what's left of our southern shortwave. To me this NAM run says the coastal sections of NC and just to the interior would probably end up the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 If the Nam were showing a big bomb here, it would probably do something to screw it up in future runs anyway. Onto the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 and poof goes the qpf...this has got to be one of the most frustrating obsessions (by far worse than golf) I told my wife the same thing tonight... Why do I do this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 there is no low pressure being shown at 48 or 51 hours anywhere in the Gulf, Florida or the Southeast Coast, except a broad 1016mb contour that stretches from Maine to the Gulf. I'd expect some sort of weak low near that vort. This run doesn't look too realistic in a couple of ways, not that I'm trying to get anyones hope up for a resurrection. Ah, theres a 1012 at 54 hours. Too late though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 and poof goes the qpf...this has got to be one of the most frustrating obsessions (by far worse than golf) Tell me about it. I need a beer. We go from nearly a foot to nothing in a span of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I told my wife the same thing tonight... Why do I do this? i wish i knew the worst part is that all in all i would be happy with an inch or two which looked feasible earlier today even if the big storm were gone. now its looking like nary a flake may fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 QPF for GA per this run is <.10" for pretty much the whole state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 not much precip anywhere, except Tex and Oklahoma. Nary a flurrie here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 At 57 hour the trough is really digging south thru the carolinas. Nemo is going to get pounded on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 At 57 hour the trough is really digging south thru the carolinas. Nemo is going to get pounded on this run. Anyone want to rent me a dinghy ? I want to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Now at 60 there is great digging in the Midwest so a 5H will close off over Tenn. and pull a 960mb low into eastern Long Island before its overwith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 QPF for GA per this run is <.10" for pretty much the whole state. All I can do is laugh. It's unreal. I wonder if this will go down in history as the EURO's worst fail EVER? I hope the GFS and EURO can make the NAM the outlier. But we are in the bottom of the ninth here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Now at 60 there is great digging in the Midwest so a 5H will close off over Tenn. and pull a 960mb low into eastern Long Island before its overwith. Don't worry. The digging is always there at 60. By then a not-yet-sampled kicker will be onshore to push this puppy downstream and we'll be congratulating Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 All I can do is laugh. It's unreal. I wonder if this will go down in history as the EURO's worst fail EVER? I hope the GFS and EURO can make the NAM the outlier. But we are in the bottom of the ninth here. I won't completely right this off until we are under 24 hours. Huge fail though! It gets where I don't trust anything unless it's under 24 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It looks like Bermuda may be warm sectored on this run. A Long Island cutter for them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 When does the Euro come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Per this run the only places that get >.25" qpf are the central coastal sections of NC and a small blip over Bristol TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 agreed. it's was significantly weaker on the Euro "bomb" runs. Basically we need a weaker and/or slower northern s/w and we're in business. It did trend west a tad.. who knows.. Baby steps, I would rather it not jump all the way back to the Euro big dog in one run I would think it was wrong lol. Really need to watch the northern stream the next 24 hrs that will decide our fate in the end. I still think this will end up being a decent hit for many I mean who here really thought we were gonna get 2ft of snow....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Tell me about it. I need a beer. We go from nearly a foot to nothing in a span of 36 hours. Yeah, but we get that 4 times a day out in Goofy land. It just hurts now because it is so close to the present, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Lets wait for the GFS before getting even more discouraged! A situation like this can change rapidly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Are any of you mets able to look at the short term models...WRF, RUC, and others? How do they compare to what the NAM showed? Agree...NAM off its rocker??? Just curious...I'm not that good at the fine details the short range models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.