burgertime Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 @21 it looks like our northern energy is a tad west. Also the low in Tx. looks a lot stronger, though again the NAM looks slower compared to it's 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If you could move that s/w over Iowa to the western part of Nebraska, this would be a bomb. Wow. Just that close!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 00z NAM looks further south with everything too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The low looks much stronger but further south this run and it's slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 northern s/w definitely farther SW than at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The low looks much stronger but further south this run and it's slower. slower with the southern feature or the northern or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 The low looks much stronger but further south this run and it's slower. Well it's slower then it's faster then it's slower again. How is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Lots of precip in the big D. Looks further south...lets see what the northern stream is about to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This run definitely appears to slow down the s/w in TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 northern vort looks a good bit west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Lots of precip in the big D. Looks further south...lets see what the northern stream is about to do. right about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well it's slower then it's faster then it's slower again. How is that possible? I said before everything looked slower. Both do, FTR the last run just in three hour changes it would catch up with the old run if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Not nearly as educated as many on here in the science, but it looked like a little phasing with a sheared off piece of our southern stream between 18 and 24 hrs on this run, anyone else see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 southern s/w actually has a closed contour at 33 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I didn't exactly get slammed last winter here. My area was literally within the 5 mile zone of the rain part of the Dec 18 storm. Started as snow for a few minutes, went to sleet, and then the last 6 hours was freezing rain. I think I'm the only one who got a pretty good icestorm from that one (1/4") . I drove to Grover and Blacksburg and they were 99% rain and hardly any sleet. It was wild coming back to my house and seeing such a quick change. Also, went to Shelby uptown and they didn't have much freezing rain, just mostly sleet. I was in 11th grade and remember it well too. I got very sick right after it hit and couldn't enjoy all the snow. We were out about 2 weeks as well if I recall. The roads were a disaster with black ice every morning, because all the snow that was piled on the sides of the roads from being scraped, just melted enough during the days to form puddles right across the roads every morning. Hky, if you go back center the 3 day loop on the 21st of the month, I'm wondering if this is a split flow phase. I don't think its a split flow phase like we have now. I know these are separate circumstances, I think its pretty neat to see how that one evolved. You can see the shortwave out in the west drop south of Arizona, then completely swing south of Texas and get pulled north back up into the Gulf, then the rest is magic. I bet that was rare setup. Yea it's rare to see a stj vort that far south. Only 87 and 93 have that look from going back through old storms. Just imagine how hard of a time the current mods would have dealing with a s/w that drops into north central mexico and phases with a canadian vort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 @ 30 Strong L near Big D. Much stronger than 18 N s/w is still move west and slower @30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 screw the southern vort, we just need the northern energy to be sharper, father west, and dig farther south.... the only people that could possibly gain anything from the southern vort is far eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 slowing down is a good thing right? means it has time to phase or not? To me it looks like the northern stream is digging too far to the east thru 36hr mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 @39 looks like our low is headed to far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Not nearly as educated as many on here in the science, but it looked like a little phasing with a sheared off piece of our southern stream between 18 and 24 hrs on this run, anyone else see that? I noticed at hr 18 but wasn't sure if it was any different than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 To me it looks like the northern stream is digging too far to the east thru 36hr mark. yeah, will probably be a bit too east again but man it's right there! ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the northern vort is too far east at 36, the southern stream is in Houston, probably going to get squashed. If the northern stream were to come in a little later or a little further west, it would do it. But this run did manage to back up the northern stream a little bit west it appears, on some panels anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 To me it looks like the northern stream is digging too far to the east thru 36hr mark. I am seeing the same. I think it is in part due to the ull in the northern stream over IA/MO. While it doesn't have a closed contour that vort is preventing the energy from really making it south for the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 yeah, will probably be a bit too east again but man it's right there! ugh yep...the southern vort looks impressive....just need the northern to go dig more west and .... boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the northern vort is too far east at 36, the southern stream is in Houston, probably going to get squashed. If the northern stream were to come in a little later or a little further west, it would do it. But this run did manage to back up the northern stream a little bit west it appears, on some panels anyway. In your opinion could the northern stream trending a little to the west or is this just noise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 at 42 here comes a new nrn stream diving very sharp. In a dream scenario the southern vort would stay put or almost stall, and await this 2nd northern stream to pick it up and pull it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It is right there and that is the part that is crazy. But did see a more N stream held back S and W a tad. yeah, will probably be a bit too east again but man it's right there! ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Man, our shortwave just seems to stall in Texas and the 1st northern stream just passes it by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am seeing the same. I think it is in part due to the ull in the northern stream over IA/MO. While it doesn't have a closed contour that vort is preventing the energy from really making it south for the phase. Saw that. It digs SE versus due south like the Euro was depicting several runs ago. By 18z at least the NAM has a stripe of >.01" QPF over me. So maybe I'll get some flakes. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 at 42 our main low is off the LA coast and another forms in S. GA and N. Fl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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