Christmas Storm V

[Rankin5150]

Ahh...NOW it makes all the sense in the world. GREAT WORK Wow. This is why Foothills was wanting to see the western ridge more robust as well...

How are things looking in "realtime", in terms of radar, etc.? Thanks

Looking at the 0z 12/23 Euro, which was the second to last run with the "bomb", here is the map valid 0z 12/25 (I found this in one of the threads posted by phil882):

And for comparision, here's the latest NAM valid at the same time (30 hrs out):

They are both fairly close in the overall setup, but the northern s/w is a bit faster on the NAM. This can help to explain just how the the slightest shifts can make a big difference.

[Rankin5150]

There's always a chance for the big dog. I still think we could end up with a general 1-3 inches across the state if the big dog fails to show up.

I know that GSP mentioned Def zone banding earlier today. Where did they pick up on that? Just trying to learn a little some'in-somethin!

[FoothillsNC]

Was that one reconized early or was it a surprise of sorts? I looked that storm up and the snow cutoff line is AMAZING. Tells me that the Low tracked inland to throw the Charlotte area into a "screw zone"! Awesome...

That was probably Cleveland County's 2nd best snowstorm I could find in the records for here. I was in high school and remember measuring 15" in the front yard with a yardstick I had got at the Cleveland County Fair. It began around 11pm and ended around 11am the next day. Caused structural damage around the county due to it being extremely wet. Its the best snowstorm I've experienced here.

[Shawn]

If this thing happens why do I feel like we will have a 6 hour window at the most to prepare? So much can happen!

[SBUWX23]

Looking at the 0z 12/22 Euro, which was the second to last run with the "bomb", here is the map valid 0z 12/25 (I found this in one of the threads posted by phil882):

And for comparision, here's the latest NAM valid at the same time (30 hrs out):

They are both fairly close in the overall setup, but the northern s/w is a bit faster on the NAM. This can help to explain just how the the slightest shifts can make a big difference.

Nice observaton! I dont understand why some folks are complaining that the northern stream waves are not well sampled yet. Everything looks to be over land, just the stuff in Canada may be slightly less but its better than over water.

[HKY_WX]

I know that GSP mentioned Def zone banding earlier today. Where did they pick up on that? Just trying to learn a little some'in-somethin!

The euro and nam give us a chance saturday afternoon/evening.

[Wow]

Nice observaton! I dont understand why some folks are complaining that the northern stream waves are not well sampled yet. Everything looks to be over land, just the stuff in Canada may be slightly less but its better than over water.

right.. it's not a sampling problem. though my argument is that it's yet actually form itself yet. right now it's a scattering of vorts.

[POWERSTROKE]

That was probably Cleveland County's 2nd best snowstorm I could find in the records for here. I was in high school and remember measuring 15" in the front yard with a yardstick I had got at the Cleveland County Fair. It began around 11pm and ended around 11am the next day. Caused structural damage around the county due to it being extremely wet. Its the best snowstorm I've experienced here.

I remember that storm well. We were out of school for two weeks and that was the first year we had to go on saturday to make up for all of the days missed. We had 17 inches. The thing was it never warmed up to melt it away. Roads were solid thick ice

[ncgolfguy]

That was probably Cleveland County's 2nd best snowstorm I could find in the records for here. I was in high school and remember measuring 15" in the front yard with a yardstick I had got at the Cleveland County Fair. It began around 11pm and ended around 11am the next day. Caused structural damage around the county due to it being extremely wet. Its the best snowstorm I've experienced here.

I remember that one also Robert. I had a 4X4 Toyota and it was dragging going down my driveway!

[SBUWX23]

right.. it's not a sampling problem. though my argument is that it's yet actually form itself yet. right now it's a scattering of vorts.

Oh definitely agree with your point.. I was just making another that I have seen so many mention on the boards today.

[HKY_WX]

Looking at the 0z 12/22 Euro, which was the second to last run with the "bomb", here is the map valid 0z 12/25 (I found this in one of the threads posted by phil882):

And for comparision, here's the latest NAM valid at the same time (30 hrs out):

They are both fairly close in the overall setup, but the northern s/w is a bit faster on the NAM. This can help to explain just how the the slightest shifts can make a big difference.

If you could move that s/w over Iowa to the western part of Nebraska, this would be a bomb.

[Snow haven]

That was probably Cleveland County's 2nd best snowstorm I could find in the records for here. I was in high school and remember measuring 15" in the front yard with a yardstick I had got at the Cleveland County Fair. It began around 11pm and ended around 11am the next day. Caused structural damage around the county due to it being extremely wet. Its the best snowstorm I've experienced here.

I hope a solution like this does not happen, that would screw me over again. which i should be used to by now.

[Wow]

If you could move that s/w over Iowa to the western part of Nebraska, this would be a bomb.

Exactly, just a 50 miles discrepancy changes the game (again), which is why even the short term forecasts need to be watched closely. A phasing event is a classic forecast buster. Seen it plenty of times. Not saying it'll happen but we're not far from it.

[Wow]

Oh definitely agree with your point.. I was just making another that I have seen so many mention on the boards today.

yeah i know what you mean. people like to pull the sampling error card a lot when their storm is gone from all the models.

[Wow]

It's all in the speed of the northern energy.. here's the 0z 12/23 european valid 0z 12/25. Instead of the energy sitting over SW Minnesota as depicted in the 0z 12/22 run, it's now dug down through Iowa.

[FoothillsNC]

AMEN Jeremy! I cannot even remember what little bit of snow we did receive. I was sitting in a screw zone most of the winter, while peeps all around me were getting hammered. WORST EVER.

I didn't exactly get slammed last winter here. My area was literally within the 5 mile zone of the rain part of the Dec 18 storm. Started as snow for a few minutes, went to sleet, and then the last 6 hours was freezing rain. I think I'm the only one who got a pretty good icestorm from that one (1/4") . I drove to Grover and Blacksburg and they were 99% rain and hardly any sleet. It was wild coming back to my house and seeing such a quick change. Also, went to Shelby uptown and they didn't have much freezing rain, just mostly sleet.

I remember that storm well. We were out of school for two weeks and that was the first year we had to go on saturday to make up for all of the days missed. We had 17 inches. The thing was it never warmed up to melt it away. Roads were solid thick ice

I was in 11th grade and remember it well too. I got very sick right after it hit and couldn't enjoy all the snow. We were out about 2 weeks as well if I recall. The roads were a disaster with black ice every morning, because all the snow that was piled on the sides of the roads from being scraped, just melted enough during the days to form puddles right across the roads every morning.

If you could move that s/w over Iowa to the western part of Nebraska, this would be a bomb.

Hky, if you go back center the 3 day loop on the 21st of the month, I'm wondering if this is a split flow phase. I don't think its a split flow phase like we have now. I know these are separate circumstances, I think its pretty neat to see how that one evolved. You can see the shortwave out in the west drop south of Arizona, then completely swing south of Texas and get pulled north back up into the Gulf, then the rest is magic. I bet that was rare setup.

[Rankin5150]

The euro and nam give us a chance saturday afternoon/evening.

Sorry to be a pain in the arse, but what do you look for on the model and which model suite? I know that Robert mentioned something about our winds being "westerlies" or NW, so when seeing that it well...took the wind out of my sails. Thanks!

[UpStateCAD]

Exactly, just a 50 miles discrepancy changes the game (again), which is why even the short term forecasts need to be watched closely. A phasing event is a classic forecast buster. Seen it plenty of times. Not saying it'll happen but we're not far from it.

yep....pretty scarry when just 50 or so mile could have such huge implications on the magnitude of the storm. To think the models can predict features to that sort of granularity is not practical. Can they predict to that level of accuracy where a hurricane will make landfall? I don't think so. As long as these features are located in somewhat reasonable proximatey.........we still have an outside shot.

[Snow haven]

Personally I would like a replay of this. But at this point I would just be happy seeing any snow on Christmas

wow!! that would be awesome. I Know everyone is wondering if this thing is going to phase. What are the chances it goes back to the Euro? could that have been just bad runs or do you think thats how its going to happen?

[kanc2001]

wow!! that would be awesome. I Know everyone is wondering if this thing is going to phase. What are the chances it goes back to the Euro? could that have been just bad runs or do you think thats how its going to happen?

Euro Op has had several "bad" runs now

[Wow]

Euro Op has had several "bad" runs now

2 compared to the 4 or 5 prior to that

[Snow haven]

2 compared to the 4 or 5 prior to that

thats what im saying how could it have sooo many where the Euro was consistent then have 2 that were not consistent. is not the Euro probably the most reliable?

[FoothillsNC]

here's the GFS for example which is why I don't have much hope for precip here on Saturday, maybe a narrow window of some flakes/sprinkles, but most light bands coming across the mountains without much upper level support goes poof here in the downslope zone. Especially lately. It happened recently with the freezing drizzle event,and countless other times. That moisture isn't associated with the gulf low, we should miss that entirely unless it works west, and the northern stream digs further west.

[wolfpackmet]

thats what im saying how could it have sooo many where the Euro was consistent then have 2 that were not consistent. is not the Euro probably the most reliable?

Well the 2 runs are recent so therefore the weight is greater.

[kanc2001]

thats what im saying how could it have sooo many where the Euro was consistent then have 2 that were not consistent. is not the Euro probably the most reliable?

my educated guess is these 2 didnt happen until the s/w was already onshore in CA (better data in model sample). the 4 or 5 previous were when southern stream s/w was still offshore and/or not formed yet. someone else my be able to clean this up for me more

[Cold Rain]

I would imagine that a storm that is so extreme like the Euro was showing would indeed be one where you might see it for a run or two and not the next. I would expect that by 12 or 24 hours out, if there's going to be a storm of that magnitude, most models would have it, though. But prior to that time frame, things like shortwaves not being well sampled, shortwaves that haven't even formed yet, areas of convection that haven't formed yet, etc, the flux in those things (their positioning, speed, direction) would yield a variety of possible outcomes (see the Nam over the last 4 runs).

This isn't over yet. Things are so close, as they would have to be...as they would NEED to be...for a huge event. That the models are not showing the big one now is concerning, but they are not that far away, and we have seen many times, things become more favorable as we move closer to time as well as some surprises. If not for that last part there, none of us would probably follow this stuff this closely.

[lilj4425]

And here comes the NAM out to hr6. Looks a little different.

[jshetley]

That was probably Cleveland County's 2nd best snowstorm I could find in the records for here. I was in high school and remember measuring 15" in the front yard with a yardstick I had got at the Cleveland County Fair. It began around 11pm and ended around 11am the next day. Caused structural damage around the county due to it being extremely wet. Its the best snowstorm I've experienced here.

I'll never forget that storm either. Was in high school too, and wanting some days off so I was watching this closely. Everyone was saying it would be rain down here except for Charlie Gertz. He went with snow and turned out to be right. Had about 8 inches, but would have had much more if we hadnt got dry slotted. Areas just to my north were buried that night of course. A Sunday storm right after that busted down here though when everyone called for a big snow.and it was rain instead. Would love another winter like 86-87 here, but dont know that we'll ever have it happen again.

[packbacker]

And here comes the NAM out to hr6. Looks a little different.

Looks like the 18z GFS through 18.

[FoothillsNC]

just comparing the 12z nam for the same period valid on tonights 18 hour, the vort in Minnesota on todays 12z is now in eastern Nebraska. Quite a jump.