Christmas Storm V

[DaculaWeather]

Here's a radar view from the 4 corners. Make opacity 100% and speed high. Nice spin starting to form over Albuquerque which looks to be south of the SPC meo map.

http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_4corners_master.php

[Brian]

Andy Wood in GSP is not excited at all???

[GreensboroWx]

A lot has to come together yet...probably not likely but it still has my attention. I think this is a case of La Nina and the "crushing" northern stream taking over.....I still think parts of eastern NC are going to get hit pretty hard. I wouldn't be surprise by an inch or two here in the Triad but the prospects of a major winter storm are about over....at least west of Raleigh.

Andy Wood in GSP is not excited at all???

[ncjoaquin]

18Z GFS Meteostar QPF actually is less than 12Z here in Aville. I went from .06 to.04. I think Robert is correct. It's going to be hard to squeeze out any snow here.(based on current models)

[eyewall]

A lot has to come together yet...probably not likely but it still has my attention. I think this is a case of La Nina and the "crushing" northern stream taking over.....I still think parts of eastern NC are going to get hit pretty hard. I wouldn't be surprise by an inch or two here in the Triad but the prospects of a major winter storm are about over....at least west of Raleigh.

Hard to believe I may find myself chasing east on this one LOL.

[SeVa]

I don't know how you guys fared in the Dec. 26, 2004 storm. Went to bed expecting 1-3in in tidewater. Left maryland at around 8 am, by the time I got to Richmond there were flurries, got to williamsburg and there was a dusting, and then 10miles later 12inches of snow. This storm is looking eerily similar...

[Brian]

Can someone explain why the ULTRA conservative FFC is forecasting accumulation still>>>>>>:snowman::snowman:

[DaculaWeather]

New GSP

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS AND ECM FEATURE SLOWLY

INCREASING AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN FOR THE SYSTEM THIS

WEEKEND. THE SRN STREAM LOW CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS

AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT AS THE NRN

STREAM UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE

THE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO TO SHUTTLE

EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SAT. GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE ALONG

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL SETTLE INTO THE

REGION STARTING FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING SAT. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES

APPEAR A BIT MARGINAL FOR SNOW AT ONSET IN THE SE HALF OF THE

AREA...WET BULB PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW IN THE EVAPORATIONALLY COOLED

AIRMASS. QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...WITH THIS INITIAL BATCH OF

FRONTOGENESIS DRIVEN FORCING SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MTNS LOCATIONS SAT...BUT

REMAIN MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS SLIGHT WARMING OF THE SFC

LAYER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE DAY...WHERE RAIN

COULD MIX IN AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW

MOS GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND AN EXPECTED PRECIP ONSET.

THE MORE INTERESTING PART OF THE EVENT WILL BE THE TRANSITION OF THE

SFC LOW FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF GA ON

SAT NIGHT. THE ECM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION

AMOUNTS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHING NW INTO THE

PIEDMONT...BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SOURCES REMAIN VERY STINGY ON THE

QPF IN THE INCREASINGLY COLD AIR. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EVENT

TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN MOST AREAS

OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE

FROM CHARLOTTE SE. THE ONLY CHANCE AT HEAVY SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS

APPEARS TO BE WITH ANY MESOSCALE BANDING...AND THIS IS MUCH TOO

UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

THE EVENT WILL TRANSITION TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WRN NC MTNS FROM

LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

FOR SNOW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AT SOME

POINT FOR THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE TN

BORDER. HOWEVER...NO WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

WILL CONTINUE THE HWO MENTION WITH ADJUSTED WORDING ON ACCUMULATIONS.

[strongwxnc]

The 18 from Meteostar gives me .04.. ha.Hope is slowly siding OTS

18Z GFS Meteostar QPF actually is less than 12Z here in Aville. I went from .06 to.04. I think Robert is correct. It's going to be hard to squeeze out any snow here.(based on current models)

[MotoWeatherman]

Can someone explain why the ULTRA conservative FFC is forecasting accumulation still>>>>>>:snowman::snowman:

At this point I really don't know why they have the amounts out there that they have. They have me at 2-4" and personally I'm expecting a dusting to an inch based on everything I've seen so far. Of course it could all change for the better but current models do not support their forecast IMHO.

[WXinCanton]

At this point I really don't know why they have the amounts out there that they have. They have me at 2-4" and personally I'm expecting a dusting to an inch based on everything I've seen so far. Of course it could all change for the better but current models do not support their forecast IMHO.

We know their track record from last winter. As Cheez said they just jinxed us.

[DaculaWeather]

CAE throwing in the towel

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE

CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES

EAST TOWARD THE COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE

GULF OF MEX SATURDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE NORTHWARD WITH THE

TRACK OF THE LOW BEFORE IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC AND QUICKLY MOVES

OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND MODELS SOUNDINGS

ARE WARMER...SUGGESTING MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION

SATURDAY MORNING...SO COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES OR RAIN/SNOW MIX

SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

AS COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...EXPECT

WHATEVER PRECIP IS LEFT TO CHANGE TO SNOW DURING SATURDAY

EVENING. BUT BY SATURDAY EVENING MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...INDICATING

DRIZZLE OR A FLURRY.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH MIDLANDS...

CHESTERFIELD AND LANCASTER COUNTIES. COULD PICK UP 1.00 TO 1.50

INCHES. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL

MIDLANDS TO THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO

NEAR 50 SOUTH. LOW SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO CONSENSUS IN THE UPPER

20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 30S.

[ams30721us]

At this point I really don't know why they have the amounts out there that they have. They have me at 2-4" and personally I'm expecting a dusting to an inch based on everything I've seen so far. Of course it could all change for the better but current models do not support their forecast IMHO.

Our in house RPM model here at the station is printing out 2-4 inch amounts with some 5" little spots in N GA.

But I do think 1-3 is a good call I am a little shocked by the 2-4 they are going with def. would expect more on the 2 side but thats in there range so no beef with me.

[DaculaWeather]

BMX just gave it up

MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FASTER MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF...LESS PHASING...AND WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE

COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES MEANS LESS CHANCES OF SEEING ANY

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WAS A

CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST

COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THIS SCENARIO LOOKS LESS

LIKELY AS MODELS ARE KEEPING HEAVIER LIQUID PRECIPITATION CLOSER

TO THE SURFACE LOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION TO SNOW

ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...BUT SURFACE

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION CONCERNS. THERE

IS A CONCERN SATURDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR 32

DEGREES AND ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE FREEZES. A COLD AND BLUSTERY

SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND EXITING

SURFACE LOW AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S.

[BIG FROSTY]

Man is this a big bust or what for (KING EURO)? I made a post yesterday that I didn't trust it, I've seen it bury me to many times just to jerk the rug out from under me. Now this is a big let down for ole frosty, I had told many people we were going to have a white Christmas didn't give them any accum just said it could be good. Now I never thought for a minute we would have a once in a life time storm (But Hoped) but I really thought we would have at least some snow ? Now all guidence seems to not want to give me a stinking flurry ! Just maybe something can turn around on the 0z runs tonight, It's possible just a little timing difference and we could still get a white Christmas (1 inch or more) but if not it was fun tracking this thing listening to all the pbp each model run (which I thank all you guys that did this) Anyway I hope you all have a Very Merry Christmas !!! Next ?

[ams30721us]

BMX just gave it up

Thats not true...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THIS FORECAST...AND

CERTAINLY THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND STRENGTH

OF THE SYSTEM ARE STILL LARGE AND LOOMING QUESTIONS. THESE

UNCERTAINTIES AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE

POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

that tells me exactly what it says....

[GreensboroWx]

To be quite honest it's not a bust until it's over. I DO think it's a likely bust, but until Sunday rolls around we won't know for sure. In the odd chance the EURO is correct, then it will be king again. Let it play out before determining a winner.

Man is this a big bust or what of for (KING EURO)? I made a post yesterday that I didn't trust it, I've seen it bury me to many times just to jerk the rug out from under me. Now this is a big let down for ole frosty, I had told many people we were going to have a white Christmas didn't give them any accum just said it good be good. Now I never thought for a minute we would have a once in a life time storm (But Hoped) but I really thought we would have at least some snow ? Now all guidence seems to not want to give me a stinking flurry ! Just maybe something can turn around on the 0z runs tonight, It's possible just a little timing difference and we could still get a white Christmas (1 inch or more) but if not it was fun tracking this thing listening to all the pbp each model run(which I thank all you guys that did this) Anyway I hope you all have a Very Merry Christmas !!! Next ?

[Wow]

I know we've talked about the possibility that the southern s/w may not be modelled entirely correctly, but what about the northern energy that's is hoped to phase with the southern jet? That has yet to really take form up in Canada yet... Just a weenie's thought.

[Pilotwx]

I noticed on the loop that the ISO bars are moving back west on the last few frames, could be good stuff or it could be nothing.

I have a test page running right now. I'm capturing the SPC Meso-analysis screen each hour, I plan on capturing the entire event, hour by hour. I get a new image at :15 after each hour. I'm going to move the animation to javascript so it will have a little fade and I can add the next 140 hours or so in there. It started around 11 I think, the times are at the bottom of each image.

http://www.daculawea.../storm_loop.php

[downeastnc]

I know we've talked about the possibility that the southern s/w may not be modelled entirely correctly, but what about the northern energy that's is hoped to phase with the southern jet? That has yet to really take form up in Canada yet... Just a weenie's thought.

I am thinking that until the southern stream is in the GOM and the northern stuff is over the midwest the models will be a bit iffy. Still think the s/w's are not really well sampled...at least I hope so...

[snowlover91]

I know we've talked about the possibility that the southern s/w may not be modelled entirely correctly, but what about the northern energy that's is hoped to phase with the southern jet? That has yet to really take form up in Canada yet... Just a weenie's thought.

That's what I've been talking about on my forum.. The models shifted dramatically when the southern vort came onshore, what's to say they won't do the same when the northern vort comes into the US and gets better sampled? My thinking is when it enters the country it'll get better sampled and the models will be making big shifts tonight or tomorrow at 12z.

[beanskip]

I got bad news for you -- that northern shortwave is just coming out of a hastily called meeting with the other northern shortwaves where they've figured out a way to screw us out of our flurries, too.

That's what I've been talking about on my forum.. The models shifted dramatically when the southern vort came onshore, what's to say they won't do the same when the northern vort comes into the US and gets better sampled? My thinking is when it enters the country it'll get better sampled and the models will be making big shifts tonight or tomorrow at 12z.

[snowlover91]

I got bad news for you -- that northern shortwave is just coming out of a hastily called meeting with the other northern shortwaves where they've figured out a way to screw us out of our flurries, too.

Eh I don't know about that, GFS gives me still .50 to .75 of all snow so I could get a nice 5"+ event if it's right..

[Wow]

That's what I've been talking about on my forum.. The models shifted dramatically when the southern vort came onshore, what's to say they won't do the same when the northern vort comes into the US and gets better sampled? My thinking is when it enters the country it'll get better sampled and the models will be making big shifts tonight or tomorrow at 12z.

I'd think it's still plausible for the northern wave to end up slower than progged by the models instead of just missing the phase and digging in ahead of the southern piece. I know I'm sounding like most of the weenies in here, but i think we should at least give 0z a chance.

[BIG FROSTY]

I know we've talked about the possibility that the southern s/w may not be modelled entirely correctly, but what about the northern energy that's is hoped to phase with the southern jet? That has yet to really take form up in Canada yet... Just a weenie's thought.

You going to have to come back and help with the pbp tonight, When you were doing the pbp the euro went bonkers, Now you didn't show up last night and look what happened ? lol So see you at 0z !

[snowlover91]

I'd think it's still plausible for the northern wave to end up slower than progged by the models instead of just missing the phase and digging in ahead of the southern piece. I know I'm sounding like most of the weenies in here, but i think we should at least give 0z a chance.

Very possible, until it's better sampled we won't know. I'm looking for a big change in the models by 12z tomorrow once this wave enters the US.

[CaryWx]

Reading some chatter about the RUC indicators looking different than what the last NAM had during the same time. FWIW.

[Wow]

You going to have to come back and help with the pbp tonight, When you were doing the pbp the euro went bonkers, Now you didn't show up last night and look what happened ? lol So see you at 0z !

lol.. i really wanted to but i've been sick for the past several days and hadn't had much sleep the previous 2 nights due to the Euro. I felt terrible yesterday so I chugged the nyquil. Plus, I had a bad feeling about it since none of the other models had really come around to matching up with it (also they were trending that way!).

Earlier today I thought because the Euro had lost the big one for 2 runs now it was over. But now I sort of have a weird feeling about it all. I don't think we're done with formerly consistent Euro solution of a fully phased bomb. Call me a weenie on it, but I think we need to give the 0z model suite a chance to resurrect it.

[Wow]

Very possible, until it's better sampled we won't know. I'm looking for a big change in the models by 12z tomorrow once this wave enters the US.

well it's not about samples, it's about that it's not even formed yet. The myriad of vorts up in Canada will form the wave in the next day or so.

The bomb solution always relied on a phase just in the nick of time. The modelling of the intensity and timing of the phasing of 2 streams has always been difficult. We've had plenty of instances where models failed to model this corrently even in the short term.

[dsaur]

My 850's stay above 0 for half the event, and the temps and td in the mid 30's the whole time. Mmmmmmm...cold rain, most likely.... but at least I get enough to wet the ground good.

I think the Doc. is going to say yes tonight for some insane reason. I believe in the power of the block...and consistency, even with the hiccups. But I will have the paramedics to call if necessary.

And Burger...keep it up..don't doubt yourself...you do a great job on pbp! T