Christmas Storm V

[BullCityWx]

Too bad the nam sucks dude. 3.5 on christmas would be pretty cool!

You know, I wondered if the NAM was picking up some lee side enhancement because the amounts picked up right in the lee of the mountains(basically the same places that got enhanced on 1/23/03) then died down until you got into the coastal plain.

It does suck either way.

[FLO]

Is it me or are these models starting to slowly trend back the right direction?

[DopplerWx]

This run sounds real real good! Qpf?!

[rduwx]

Gotcha!

I'm like you burger...I thought it was really close this run. At 72 it finally did but I thought at 63 it was right there at it.

[NEGa]

still looks like it wants to put down at least a little snow over much of n ga and the upstate so all hope is not lost for some christmas snow

edit: looks like a heavier strip from near gville east near the charlotte area

[burgertime]

So when I'm looking at the 500 vort what should I be looking for on this system? It's serves all of us better for me not to look the fool.

[burgertime]

This run sounds real real good! Qpf?!

QPF wasn't that good it headed OTS once it turned the corner past Fl.

[Shawn]

Okay actually, this OP run of the GFS was NOT bad at all. Oh so close, DEFINITELY wanna check out these ensemble members to see if a phase occurs.

[burgertime]

I'm like you burger...I thought it was really close this run. At 72 it finally did but I thought at 63 it was right there at it.

Yea that's why Cheez is the pro...haha I was really getting excited there but it ended up being a little bit of a dud. I'm a though so I'll call this a good step.

[bingcrosbyb]

Thermal issues to be worked out, but the 18z GFS might be a great run for those south of I-20 in maybe a 50-75 mile wide zone of good moisture + cold air. Hmmm.

[Cheeznado]

How are you feeling with the GFS's depiction of temps? Verbatim it looks like a rain to snow event for much of the metro with maybe the far northern/NWern burbs staying mostly snow.

The first batch is rain unless we get colder and drier air in here for some evap cooling. Our best chance is for good snowshowers behind the low if the northern stream short wave can dig far enough west. This run says some parts of north GA could see a heavy dusting to an inch or two from the snowshower event, best chance north of the city.

[rduwx]

So when I'm looking at the 500 vort what should I be looking for on this system? It's serves all of us better for me not to look the fool.

I would like to know this also because when I was looking at hr 60 at 500 the northern stream and southern stream I thought were together. It looked to me like the energy from the northern stream was joining w/ the energy from the southern stream. What am I missing?

[rduwx]

Yea that's why Cheez is the pro...haha I was really getting excited there but it ended up being a little bit of a dud. I'm a though so I'll call this a good step.

Yea, I'm a staight up weenie also but I'd like to try to learn a little something.

[burgertime]

I would like to know this also because when I was looking at hr 60 at 500 the northern stream and southern stream I thought were together. It looked to me like the energy from the northern stream was joining w/ the energy from the southern stream. What am I missing?

I guess the northern stream needs to be ahead and digging? So that the low can ride along with it?

[UNCCmetgrad]

FORGET THE PHASE! its not happening.. Strong digging of the northern jet is the only hope.

Yep. Until we see the northern stream energy oriented more north to south than northwest to southeast you can forget about a phase early enough to benefit the western Carolinas and Georgia. I this was discussed by HPC as to why the EURO was showing the perfect phasing scenario as it was really digging the northern stream from almost due north.

[Cheeznado]

I would like to know this also because when I was looking at hr 60 at 500 the northern stream and southern stream I thought were together. It looked to me like the energy from the northern stream was joining w/ the energy from the southern stream. What am I missing?

On this run the vort max does in a sense join in with the northern stream, but it really just gets destroyed without adding much to the eventual stronger cyclogenesis, This is far from the "perfect phase" shown by the earlier Euro runs.

[burgertime]

Yep. Until we see the northern stream energy oriented more north to south than northwest to southeast you can forget about a phase early enough to benefit the western Carolinas and Georgia. I this was discussed by HPC as to why the EURO was showing the perfect phasing scenario as it was really digging the northern stream from almost due north.

What am I looking for on a map for that energy? Is that the vort around the Dakotas? Should that be moving in a more n/s direction instead of s/e?

[MotoWeatherman]

Yea that's why Cheez is the pro...haha I was really getting excited there but it ended up being a little bit of a dud. I'm a though so I'll call this a good step.

I would like to see them phase but the southern stream vort is just too far ahead of the northern stream vort but you can see them finally merge on hour 66 of this 18z GFS run. Then the SFC low starts to strengthen rapidly off the Carolina coast but...too far off the coast because the phase is a tad too late. Now if the northern stream can dig faster and deeper then it could phase sooner which would bring us back into the game.

[Cheeznado]

Cheez...does this show a phase...you know best

The little yellow piece of vorticity west of the northern Peninsula of FL is all that is left of the vort max/low now in NM. The northern stream is totally dominant here.

[burgertime]

I would like to see them phase but the southern stream vort is just too far ahead of the northern stream vort but you can see them finally merge on hour 66 of this 18z GFS run. Then the SFC low starts to strengthen rapidly off the Carolina coast but...too far off the coast because the phase is a tad too late. Now if the northern stream can dig faster and deeper then it could phase sooner which would bring us back into the game.

So basically we need that southern vort to slow down a few more hours to allow the northern energy to merge and lift it? I realize there is no magic hour or anything for it to slow down to for a perfect phase just trying to get the basics. Thanks for all the pro's help with this.

[DaculaWeather]

I have a test page running right now. I'm capturing the SPC Meso-analysis screen each hour, I plan on capturing the entire event, hour by hour. I get a new image at :15 after each hour. I'm going to move the animation to javascript so it will have a little fade and I can add the next 140 hours or so in there. It started around 11 I think, the times are at the bottom of each image.

http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_loop.php

[Cheeznado]

So basically we need that southern vort to slow down a few more hours to allow the northern energy to merge and lift it? I realize there is no magic hour or anything for it to slow down to for a perfect phase just trying to get the basics. Thanks for all the pro's help with this.

No the slower movement is one reason is is NOT phasing- plus the northern stream is digging a bit too far east. Slower would totally leave it behind.

[rduwx]

I would like to see them phase but the southern stream vort is just too far ahead of the northern stream vort but you can see them finally merge on hour 66 of this 18z GFS run. Then the SFC low starts to strengthen rapidly off the Carolina coast but...too far off the coast because the phase is a tad too late. Now if the northern stream can dig faster and deeper then it could phase sooner which would bring us back into the game.

That's what I'm curious about. If the that merge took place at hr 60 and the strength rapidly increased would that pull the system closer to the coast? Or is the reason it's going OTS because the trough is setting up to far east?

[MotoWeatherman]

That's what I'm curious about. If the that merge took place at hr 60 and the strength rapidly increased would that pull the system closer to the coast? Or is the reason it's going OTS because the trough is setting up to far east?

Like Cheez just alluded to the northern stream is digging too far to the east. If it would dig further west it would pull the SFC low further to the west and also have a better chance of hooking up with the southern stream.

[rduwx]

Like Cheez just alluded to the northern stream is digging too far to the east. If it would dig further west it would pull the SFC low further to the west and also have a better chance of hooking up with the southern stream.

Cool...Thanks Dawson and Cheez for the explanation!

[Jalba]

Updated Loop

Again - Time From 10am - 5pm.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Well, I am not giviing up on this one. I believe that the timing/location of the phase has not been written in stone. I agree that we are running short on time here, but radical changes are not out of the question at this point. This one still has a great deal of potential. Remember, we are in the timeframe where things begin to trend to their final solutions and the 18z runs have trended better than the 12z runs. Tonight's Euro run will be HUGE. It should tell us whether this current trend is real or not. .

[eyewall]

I would agree in saying that yes the ridging is too far east for the northern stream to dive in an optimal spot. However the latest run would also imply it is not a total loss (at least in central NC and east).

[tazaroo]

Will the Northern Shortwave be sampled well with the 0z suite?

[Shawn]

Will the Northern Shortwave be sampled well with the 0z suite?

HPC had said another 1-2 runs of the models might be a little crazy. We shall see!