tgarren Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Was not the euro just wrong this last time only once with this storm? How many times have the other models been wrong? It could have just been a bad run?? its shown the same thing for 2 runs in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @36 our low looks stronger don't think it'll phase though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @36 our low looks stronger don't think it'll phase though. Low has trended stronger with each run, if it keeps trending stronger we'll eventually get a run where it phases I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks Identical to the NAM at 36 in regards to the northern stream and the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canes2614 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This storms going to come down to the final stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sharper ridge at 30....looks like @36 our low looks stronger don't think it'll phase though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, it has certainly went down hill quickly. The problem is the southern stream...Its moving too damn slowly.. *or could be just moving normal and n stream is super fast* Either way, the southern stream HAS TO get out in FRONT of the northern stream so they can phase. I will certainly change my map tonight. Slower is good. Allows the northern stream to get ahead of the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This storms going to come down to the final stretch I agree. The small trends have been good so far with the models, just because it doesn't show a bomb doesnt mean its a bad run. Keep trending stronger with the s/w and it sets us up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Little better RH across NC this run compared to 12z. Surface Reflection around BNA looks drier though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hours 42-48, southern stream is about 6 hours slower than 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's close to a phase @51 the northern energy is trying to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wetter than the NAM at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Worse than 12z GFS, southern low is getting chewed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Boy, it sure looks like at 500mb it is closer to where we want it at 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's trying but it looks like it's going to be too late. @54 our low is just off the panhandle of Fl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Boy, it sure looks like at 500mb it is closer to where we want it at 54 hours. Yea night and day vs. 12z GFS they are very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Had to delete the earlier post as I have seen more of the GFS- the key here is the northern stream, we need a vort max to dig as far west as possible, and this run is trending in that direction. Forget the TX disturbance, we have to rely on strong NW flow short wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just an FYI guys, 18z NAM Bufkit dropped 3.5" at KHKY the last run and 1.5" at KCLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @57 it's trying to phase...so freaking close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just an FYI guys, 18z NAM Bufkit dropped 3.5" at KHKY the last run and 1.5" at KCLT. Too bad the nam sucks dude. 3.5 on christmas would be pretty cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yep....it is a tease. It is not going to get the job done this run, but it sure was closer than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 OMG we are close to a winner on this run boys!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 QC you are spot on with these numbers. Looking at 54 just south of miss/al coast and the wind flow looks NNE out of it.... Just an FYI guys, 18z NAM Bufkit dropped 3.5" at KHKY the last run and 1.5" at KCLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @69 it's trying to bomb off of CHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I LOVE the trends. 00z runs should be very good tonight if the gfs keeps trending in this direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Shouldn't these runs get more and more accurate as the evening goes on with all the data being put into them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @57 it's trying to phase...so freaking close. FORGET THE PHASE! its not happening.. Strong digging of the northern jet is the only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Had to delete the earlier post as I have seen more of the GFS- the key here is the northern stream, we need a vort max to dig as far west as possible, and this run is trending in that direction. Forget the TX disturbance, we have to rely on strong NW flow short wave. How are you feeling with the GFS's depiction of temps? Verbatim it looks like a rain to snow event for much of the metro with maybe the far northern/NWern burbs staying mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @69 it's trying to bomb off of CHS WHAT?!?! What's the MB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Man this thing phased just a hair late...this gives us hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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