Christmas Storm V

[rosie]

lol - i wish i could not worry. but getting snow in ga is a worry any time. once again i am afraid that the qpf will be just a bit too light up here. if i am making everyone in my family mad and blowing off christmas for a chance at snow, i at least better see some "

Dog house for you! Who knows, we may all receive a nice Christmas present sometime Sat.

[BIG FROSTY]

Ripley's believe it or not, NWS still gives me a pretty good chance for snow.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING...

BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

.CHRISTMAS DAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION

POSSIBLE. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE

WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.

LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW

60 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE

MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.

[superjames1992]

NAM snowfall map I have access to puts most of WNC in 2-4...probably realistically 2 inches.

I'd take it.

Hopefully, the 18z NAM is the beginning of a trend which is good for all of us. Hopefully...

[eyewall]

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A LESS SIGNIFICANT

WINTER STORM FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY THROUGH

SUNDAY....

TWO DIFFERENT MECHANISMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME WINTRY

PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE

FIRST AND WEAKER SYSTEM IS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A

SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT MOVES INTO THE OHIO

VALLEY/SOUTH APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. THE OTHER AND POTENTIALLY

MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE GULF

OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND THEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY

NIGHT/SUNDAY.

FORCING FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM INCLUDING THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE

AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER WILL PRODUCE A NARROW

NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST SHIELD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES

SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MIDDAY INTO THE

EARLY EVENING HOURS SATURDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE

LIGHT AND RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE

WARMER THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ON SAT. NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE 2M

TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40 TO 45 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN

PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. PARTIAL THICKNESS FORECAST

INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW BUT IT APPEARS

THAT THICKNESS VALUES ARE NOT CAPTURING THE SHALLOW BUT WARM MIXED

LAYER PER RECENT NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE

DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY TO BE MAINLY SNOW IN THE

NORTHWEST PIEDMONT/TRIAD AND MIXED SNOW AND RAIN IN THE

TRIANGLE/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE FAR

SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH

EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ARE LIGHT...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH

OF AN INCH. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS....REDUCED

POTENTIAL FOR DIABATIC COOLING (DEW POINTS IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE)

AND WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER - EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE REDUCED

AND GENERALLY INSIGNIFICANT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NAM/GFS MOS

GUIDANCE IS PROVIDING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S IN THE

NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN

WHICH APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM. HAVE ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON

SATURDAY UP 2 TO 6 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST INTO THE 38 TO 44

DEGREE RANGE.

THE SECOND AND POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A

COASTAL STORM WILL BE DRIVEN BY SEVERAL KEY FEATURES AMONG THEM A

VIGOROUS MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE GRAND CANYON AND OTHER SHORT WAVE

ENERGY CENTERED NEAR ALBERTA CANADA. LATEST RUNS OF THE 23/12 UTC

NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN QPF OVER

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. THIS

APPEARS TO BE RESULTING FROM A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE

GRAND CANYON SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH REDUCES THE

POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS AND

RESULTS IN WEAKER CYCLOGENESIS.

THIS IS A NOTABLE ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT SHOULD BE

INTERPRETED CAREFULLY BUT THIS A TREND FIRST NOTED IN THE 00/06 UTC

RUNS AND THE TREND IS OFTEN YOUR FRIEND. QPF VALUES FROM THE COASTAL

SYSTEM BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE

FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO A

TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE TO SOUTH AND EAST OF US 1. LOW TEMPERATURES

ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL

NC...GENERALLY IN THE 26 TO 31 RANGE. THESE QPF AMOUNTS ALONG WITH

THE ARRIVAL OF NIGHTFALL AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES

WOULD SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE EASTERN

PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THE STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL

OBVIOUSLY PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND THIS MAY

BE HARD TO LOCK DOWN UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY REACH LATITUDE 35 NORTH OR JUST EAST

OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WHICH GIVEN THE WEAKER

INTENSITY AND REDUCED BANDING POTENTIAL (TO THIS POINT AT LEAST)

SHOULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO END.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SNOW AND COULD

RESULT IN ADDITIONAL...MOSTLY LIKELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SOME

CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE

IN THE DAY. THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY

WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHEAST PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY

AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN

THE 34 TO 38 DEGREE RANGE.

CLEARING SKIES AND COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A BRISK NIGHT

SUNDAY NIGHT. WONDER IF NWP GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD FOR LOWS SUNDAY

NIGHT THINKING THERE WOULD BE MORE SNOW COVER. WILL FORECAST LOW

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. -BLAES-- End Changed Discussion --

:axe:

Here we go with the p-type issues in my area as suspected.

[superjames1992]

QPF map. Love the .25-.5" right near GSO.

[buckeyefan1]

CAE... Not even a dusting...*sigh*

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE

CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES

EAST TOWARD THE COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE

GULF OF MEX SATURDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE NORTHWARD WITH THE

TRACK OF THE LOW BEFORE IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC AND QUICKLY MOVES

OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND MODELS SOUNDINGS

ARE WARMER...SUGGESTING MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION

SATURDAY MORNING...SO COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES OR RAIN/SNOW MIX

SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

AS COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...EXPECT

WHATEVER PRECIP IS LEFT TO CHANGE TO SNOW DURING SATURDAY

EVENING. BUT BY SATURDAY EVENING MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...INDICATING

DRIZZLE OR A FLURRY.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH MIDLANDS...

CHESTERFIELD AND LANCASTER COUNTIES. COULD PICK UP 1.00 TO 1.50

INCHES. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL

MIDLANDS TO THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO

NEAR 50 SOUTH. LOW SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO CONSENSUS IN THE UPPER

20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 30S.-- End Changed Discussion --

[strongwxnc]

GSP HWO

335 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT

NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...BEFORE PASSING OFF THE

GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE

ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SATURDAY...WITH

LIGHT SNOW LIKELY DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. THE

SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS

SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF

INTERSTATE 77. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS

SYSTEM...BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH APPEAR POSSIBLE

IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED ONE TO TWO

INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS HOLIDAY

WEEKEND. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS.

[Shawn]

CAE... Not even a dusting...*sigh*

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE

CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES

EAST TOWARD THE COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE

GULF OF MEX SATURDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE NORTHWARD WITH THE

TRACK OF THE LOW BEFORE IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC AND QUICKLY MOVES

OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND MODELS SOUNDINGS

ARE WARMER...SUGGESTING MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION

SATURDAY MORNING...SO COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES OR RAIN/SNOW MIX

SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

AS COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...EXPECT

WHATEVER PRECIP IS LEFT TO CHANGE TO SNOW DURING SATURDAY

EVENING. BUT BY SATURDAY EVENING MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...INDICATING

DRIZZLE OR A FLURRY.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH MIDLANDS...

CHESTERFIELD AND LANCASTER COUNTIES. COULD PICK UP 1.00 TO 1.50

INCHES. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL

MIDLANDS TO THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO

NEAR 50 SOUTH. LOW SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO CONSENSUS IN THE UPPER

20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 30S.-- End Changed Discussion --

I told everyone after that last Euro run, but nooo apparently 35.0F+ is freezing.

[Pilotwx]

Okay 36hrs. ago the NAM had absolutely nothing, now it has a storm. Now get the trend to move this thing NW and we are golden. Until tomorrow I still say we are in the game. Gradual steps

[Hugo]

ILM...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS ON THE COASTAL

STORM AND ITS WINTRY IMPACTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE

SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST FRIDAY

EVENING...CROSSING NORTHERN FLORIDA SATURDAY EVENING...THEN

CURVING UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE

SPURIOUS 12Z NAM RUN WHICH HAS BEEN REJECTED...THE 06Z AND 12Z

GFS ALONG WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF ARE FALLING INTO BETTER

AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 75 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON...AND 175 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS ON

CHRISTMAS DAY...SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH STATES

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INITIALLY PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN

GIVEN 2500-5000 FT OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR AS MEASURED FROM THE

SURFACE. AS NIGHT FALLS AND THE AIRMASS COOLS DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL

PROCESSES AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH

SNOW INLAND WITH COLD RAIN CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST. GFS

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR ZERO DEGREES

CELSIUS WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER AT THE

SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING

PRECIPITATION INTENSITY TO MODULATE PRECIPITATION TYPE MORE-SO

THAN SYNOPTIC THERMAL ADVECTION. IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS WE HAVE

OBSERVED "SNOW ISLANDS" WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES COOL

THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND...WHILE

PLAIN RAIN IS OBSERVED IN ADJACENT AREAS WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION

RATES.

IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE COLDER AIR BUILDING EASTWARD VERSUS

THE PRECIPITATION ENDING AS THE 500 & 700 MB DRY SLOT ADVANCES IN

FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO ALL

SNOW ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION PLUS LUMBERTON BEFORE ENDING BY

DAYBREAK SUNDAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST SNOW WILL PROBABLY MIX IN

BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BEFORE THE

CORE OF THE VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED

SNOW FLURRIES MAY FLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM WRAP-

AROUND LOW CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CLOUD FALL FASTER

THAN THE MOISTURE CAN THIN OUT.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GOING TO BE HAMPERED BY RELATIVELY WARM

GROUND TEMPERATURES AND BY THE RAIN THAT WILL FALL ALONG WITH THE

SNOW AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE

ACCUMULATIONS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS DILLON...ROBESON...BLADEN AND

THE INLAND PORTION OF PENDER COUNTY WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES COULD

OCCUR IN SPOTS. PRECIPITATION MAY END TOO SOON ACROSS DARLINGTON

AND FLORENCE FOR MORE THAN A GOOD DUSTING...AND WARM AIR MAY

LINGER TOO LONG ALONG THE COAST DESPITE LARGER STORM-TOTAL

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WATCHES AT THIS

TIME...HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE A MORE REFINED IDEA

OF WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL AND MAY BE ABLE TO POST

WINTER STORM WATCHES WHERE NECESSARY.-- End Changed Discussion --

[Itunis]

Hot off the press, FFC's new SWS. Pretty bold!

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA... GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROME TO CANTON TO GAINESVILLE LINE... WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. FROM THIS AREA SOUTHWARD TO A LA GRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE... WHICH INCLUDES THE ATLANTA METRO AREA... 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE... MAINLY FROM MID SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA... EXPECT MAINLY RAIN... POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FLURRIES LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

[dsaur]

CAE... Not even a dusting...*sigh*

Well, you and Jose can get hammered even if it isn't snow.

I on the other hand....

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

401 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-

089>098-102>113-241230-

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-

CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-

CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-

NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-

HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-

NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-

SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-

MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-

GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-

WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-

MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-

SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-

MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-

401 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH

SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...

WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE DEEP

SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A

CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL

GEORGIA OVER THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.

AT THIS TIME COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE MOST LIKELY

ROUTE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND EXTREME

SOUTH GEORGIA ON CHRISTMAS DAY... AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST ON

SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH

EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A ROME TO

CANTON TO GAINESVILLE LINE... THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS

RAIN... POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET OR SNOW... AND CONTINUE THROUGH

THE COURSE OF CHRISTMAS DAY. THE RAIN...SNOW MIX EVENTUALLY

SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE

MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SOMETIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH

GEORGIA... GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROME TO CANTON TO GAINESVILLE

LINE... WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. FROM THIS

AREA SOUTHWARD TO A LA GRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE...

WHICH INCLUDES THE ATLANTA METRO AREA... 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS

POSSIBLE... MAINLY FROM MID SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY

MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA... EXPECT MAINLY RAIN... POSSIBLY CHANGING

OVER TO SNOW FLURRIES LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS

POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PROJECTED

PATH WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD MEAN

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW...AS WELL AS TOTAL AMOUNTS.

ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OR THE SOUTHEAST

UNITED STATES OVER THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP ABREAST TO THE

LATEST FORECAST ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM.

[DopplerWx]

If the GFS comes in with a stronger s/w we could be sitting pretty. Still more than enough time for models to trend back toward a better solution.

[deltadog03]

Well, it has certainly went down hill quickly. The problem is the southern stream...Its moving too damn slowly.. *or could be just moving normal and n stream is super fast* Either way, the southern stream HAS TO get out in FRONT of the northern stream so they can phase. I will certainly change my map tonight.

[HKY_WX]

It looks to me like the main difference b/n now and 48 hours ago, is the northern stream wave is stronger. The southern wave hasn't really changed that much on the euro or ukmet. But the northern wave is much more defined. So it's in effect, shearing out the southern vort. That's why all you see now is a bunch of precip in TN and the southern ohio valley. If this trend continues, we're essentially getting a strong clipper coming through Christmas evening. This could actually become a decent clipper system if it keeps trending stronger. It's already showing a general 1-3 across the state on the NAM/EURO

[Shawn]

It looks to me like the main difference b/n now and 48 hours ago, is the northern stream wave is stronger. The southern wave hasn't really changed that much on the euro or ukmet. But the northern wave is much more defined. So it's in effect, shearing out the southern vort. That's why all you see now is a bunch of precip in TN and the southern ohio valley. If this trend continues, we're essentially getting a strong clipper coming through Christmas evening. This could actually become a decent clipper system if it keeps trending stronger. It's already showing a general 1-3 across the state on the NAM/EURO

TECHNICALLY the GFS would have nailed this before the Euro then right?!

[HKY_WX]

TECHNICALLY the GFS would have nailed this before the Euro then right?!

Yes, the euro has been a miserable failure so far this winter.

[HKY_WX]

I mean there's always the chance of a last minute phase/miracle, but there's also a chance santa might fall down my chimney.

[Shawn]

I mean there's always the chance of a last minute phase/miracle, but there's also a chance santa might fall down my chimney.

Oh man, I was gonna get dressed up as Santa and drop on down. I was gonna make it a surprise but now that I think about it... I think it'll be better to tell you beforehand in case you have a fire going!

[buckeyefan1]

Well, you and Jose can get hammered even if it isn't snow.

I on the other hand....

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

401 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

Now that sounds more like it..lol I think it will come down to a now cast situation for alot of us here in the south, just like most winter threats around here....btw...Jose is still on ice waiting patiently for our date next weekend

[HKY_WX]

Oh man, I was gonna get dressed up as Santa and drop on down. I was gonna make it a surprise but now that I think about it... I think it'll be better to tell you beforehand in case you have a fire going!

[Shawn]

Now that sounds more like it..lol I think it will come down to a now cast situation for alot of us here in the south, just like most winter threats around the south....btw...Jose is still on ice waiting patiently for our date next weekend

That's what I think! If that amazing phase happens by freak accident I'll just be hungry and cold. To Hell with cutting wood and going grocery shopping with the current look! Haha, but yeah I might have to come join you on your crazy drinking adventure. You got FB? LOL

[DopplerWx]

GFS just initialized.

[tgarren]

if you look at the past 3 runs of the NAM it has at least sped up the southern wave. if you look at 54hr map which is 0z Sunday the 500 low is just south of the FLA panhandle where as 6 an 0z had it off the south central LA coast. if it shifts it this much come 0z could that change things significantly? the change in the northern energy doesnt appear as move as much.

[DopplerWx]

Out to 12.

[burgertime]

@27 our low is slower and further SW.

[Snow haven]

Was not the euro just wrong this last time only once with this storm? How many times have the other models been wrong? It could have just been a bad run??

[Snow haven]

@27 our low is slower and further SW.

Is that good?

[HWY316wx]

looks wetter to me over Texas than the 12Z.

Looks to me like those two pieces of energy are almost touching at 18.

[DopplerWx]

Is that good?

Slower is good. Allows the northern stream to get ahead of the shortwave.