Christmas Storm V

[Carvers Gap]

At 36 hr, the simulated radar is juicier than the 42 hr @ 12z.

[eyewall]

Eyewall, any thoughts on the ull in Iowa? Looks weaker at 30. Plus the NS looks slower at 30. imo

Looks about the same to me but hard to tell. s/w is definitely more northerly on this run though. The phase may still be a miss.

[strongwxnc]

If it is going S. the next frame should tell you

@42 I would say it looks like the Euro but still doesn't look like it will phase in time. the low is def. stronger.

[dsaur]

Yeah, but we don't need a phase to get snow-a weak gulf low that goes OTS after crossing Florida can work out nicely for some light snow here.

Yep...looking at the loop I'll be pleased as punch to have that sucker sliding by south of me. It looks stronger than the models are depicting, and it supersoaked ArnoldLand. Give me that low, make it winter, and I'll take my chances with cold chasing it. I rarely get more than that king of chance anyway. If I was guessing I'd say that it comes in stronger and temps will be a worry down here. Still I might get some sleet, and thats all I wanted anyway...heavy sleet with some snow for cement, lol. T

[strongwxnc]

And at 42 that L is in the middle of LA..

Closed 300mb low in TX at 30hrs, this was not on the 12 or 0z runs... 6z had it, but to the west of the 18z's position at the same time.

[burgertime]

@45 looks like Robert was right it's getting pushed to the south. Still north of the 12z and stronger but not exactly good for us either.

[WeatherNC]

42 is very close, much closer than previous runs. I do not see how this sw ends up in the central gulf, considering it is in central LA at 42...

Also, look at the gap on the sim in northern MS, matches up nicely with the difference between the streams.

[FoothillsNC]

The northern stream just isn't far enough west or diggy enough to generate a good gulf low, so we're left with the system coming out of Texas as it goes along the gulf coast. There will a little moisture on its north side, but not much becuase winds can't back from the gulf very far , so if youre too far from the Gulf low, don't expect much QPF. By the way, all the qpf in Tenn and the northern stream that is probably going to be a decaying band, scattered and very spotty extremely light snow in my opinion. There could be some places in the Tenn Valley that get an inch or 2 though. And once it crosses the Apps, *poof* But we stil can get snow to develop in GA and the Carolinas from the Gulf system if it makes the northeast turn early enough.

[burgertime]

@48 our low is on the south eastern tip of LA.

[strongwxnc]

Yes but a good bit further NE than the 12. It is into southern LA

@45 looks like Robert was right it's getting pushed to the south. Still north of the 12z and stronger but not exactly good for us either.

[Mencken_Fan]

At 36hr the Northern energy is 50 mi. south of previous run; and southern energy is 50 mi. north of previous run. That's a total of 100 miles closure on phasing.

[burgertime]

Looks better @51 compared to 12z that's for damn sure it looks like it's either moving due east or about to make a turn.

[strongwxnc]

Ton better at 52. Much more NE form the 12 run.

Looks better @51 compared to 12z that's for damn sure it looks like it's either moving due east or about to make a turn.

[Carvers Gap]

I wonder if the moisture(as Foothills says, the band will decay as it goes east) in the TN Valley on the simulated radar is evidence that the northern stream and southern stream are interacting some. Also, has anyone else looked at the actual water vapor and satellite? Those would seem to support the fact the northern stream energy is out out front.

[burgertime]

Looks better @51 compared to 12z that's for damn sure it looks like it's either moving due east or about to make a turn.

Never mind it's getting all sheered out at 54...interesting tongue of QPF right over CLT but as Robert said that's probably misleading.

[lilj4425]

Check out the differences at 300MB between each run. Looks better but still not quite there.

[WXinCanton]

[BullCityWx]

Precip maxima right over top of Gaffney Peach at 54 hours.

[NEGa]

i saw that too, may not be a lot, but the composite radar shows a slug of moisture moving across n ga into the upstate. this may be another 'nowcast' events where the models will waffle on qpf and until looking at radar sat. morning we may not know whether we will see any flakes or not

[BullCityWx]

At least it'll be snow this go around:

Date: 45 hour Eta valid 15Z SAT 25 DEC 10
Station: 35.31,-81.23
Latitude:   35.31
Longitude: -81.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   156                                                                 
SFC  990   239   1.0  -3.8  70  4.9  -0.8  25   4 275.0 275.5 272.9 283.0  2.90
 2  950   568  -0.3  -5.0  70  4.7  -2.0 124   2 276.9 277.3 273.8 284.6  2.76
 3  900  1000  -1.2  -4.3  79  3.2  -2.4 224  12 280.3 280.8 276.1 289.0  3.08
 4  850  1453  -3.1  -6.7  76  3.6  -4.4 237  18 282.9 283.3 277.0 290.6  2.72
 5  800  1933  -3.5  -5.6  86  2.1  -4.3 250  30 287.4 287.9 279.8 296.5  3.14
 6  750  2443  -3.5  -4.1  96  0.6  -3.8 252  39 292.8 293.4 282.9 303.8  3.76
 7  700  2988  -5.0  -5.5  96  0.5  -5.2 252  44 297.0 297.6 284.5 307.8  3.62
 8  650  3568  -7.6  -8.3  94  0.8  -7.8 251  45 300.4 301.0 285.3 310.0  3.14
 9  600  4187 -10.9 -11.8  93  0.9 -11.2 250  47 303.5 304.0 285.9 311.6  2.59
10  550  4851 -14.6 -15.9  90  1.3 -15.0 248  53 306.8 307.1 286.5 313.2  2.02
11  500  5566 -19.4 -21.1  86  1.7 -19.8 249  61 309.4 309.7 286.8 314.1  1.42
12  450  6340 -24.7 -26.9  82  2.1 -25.2 248  64 312.1 312.3 287.2 315.3  0.94
13  400  7186 -31.0 -33.6  78  2.6 -31.3 248  65 314.8 314.9 287.6 316.7  0.56
14  350  8118 -38.5 -41.8  71  3.2 -38.8 247  67 316.8 316.8 288.0 317.8  0.28
15  300  9158 -46.8 -50.4  67  3.6 -47.0 247  81 319.3 319.4 288.7 319.8  0.13
16  250 10342 -54.5                      249  94 325.0                        
17  200 11764 -55.6                      251  90 344.7                        
18  150 13579 -59.1                      256  83 368.3                        
19  100 16088 -64.5                      263  65 403.1                        
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0                           

[strongwxnc]

Wish I could post the Hi-res nam. Looks a lot better at 54. Stronger and over the panhandle. It get sheared like burger stated but, much better.

"is that better"?

[dsaur]

i have no idea and would doubt getting a lot of qpf. gsp has updated my forecast from heavy snow to light snow accumulations. but hey i would take it (i am talking an inch or so, which at this point isnt necessarily probably imby either). the NAM and its increased amounts the other day only to have almost none stands out in my mind so i am not even sure i will be comfortable with any models until its christmas morning and i see the echo on the radar and there are reports of it reaching the ground

i really hope the system brings enough moisture into n ga and the western carolinas so we can see at least some widespread light snow.

Don't worry, channel 2 said you were getting all the snow up there and the rest of us left with crumbs. Hell, climo has always said no, so I have been expecting a now cast all along...it was Robert and the Cheez that had me forgetting to take my meds, lol. I'm glad expectations have been tempered...so when two feet falls it will be much more entertaining to watch the ensuing chaos.

That is a strong looking low so I'd expect qpf to be higher even without a phase. T

[burgertime]

Wish I could post the Hi-res nam. Looks a lot better at 54. Stronger and over the panhandle. It get sheared like burger stated but, much better.

"is that better"?

Yea if anything this run just says we might still be in the game for something. Freaking NAM.

[eyewall]

This run is essentially a continuation of the crap from this morning. I would get some light snow if it verified (which would be awesome on Christmas) but still strung out and weak. Basically we stepped up from the smell of a Cattle feed lot to that of a horse pasture in the sun.

[Carvers Gap]

54 hrs at 12z and 48 hr at 18z are pretty different in their placement of the souther stream sw.

[HWY316wx]

Don't let Lookout see this, there is a dark green spot over his house!

Honestly this would not be a bad swath of snow for ATL given verbatim.

[Itunis]

.1"-.25" QPF total at 54 from Bham-ATL and then going up 85. More in far N GA/E TN/far W NC. Temps look to be conducive to mostly snow down to I-20...

[burgertime]

NAM snowfall map I have access to puts most of WNC in 2-4...probably realistically 2 inches.

[strongwxnc]

No joke. the Hi-res look much better at 18. @57 it is over N FL just about into ga, but getting sheared out to the NNE.

Much better ft least imo... But I know jack folks

Yea if anything this run just says we might still be in the game for something. Freaking NAM.

Yep. Off WW it show the same with 3-6 on the ridge lines.

NE TN and M TN looks like 2-4 per this run...

[FoothillsNC]

We need the whole setup to back up a hundred or 2 hundred miles. the northern stream is coming in tandem with teh southern stream and not phasing, so it literally arrives at exactly the wrong time for anybody. The northern stream qpf is probably way over done, esp in NC and SC, but on the west side of the Apps there could be a decaying band that puts down an inch or 2. None of the models have a good look at 5H right now, they all have the northern stream too far east, but its possible still that eastern NC or SC (or both) could get some decent accumulating snow. I'd say they stand the best chances. If for some reason the northern stream isn't stronger than shown, I'd say just north of the Upper low track along the gulf coast also has a shot at accumulating snow, but temps might be a problem, so its a fine dance somewhere in south central Alabama and Georgia to lower SC. The least likely place for snow given this setup is western SC and NC and ne GA region because of being so far removed from the influence of the upper low, and also because of downsloping.