Solak Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks! You can find the surface analysis maps here . Just use the dropdowns for the parameters you're searching for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @21 the low looks to be a little stronger then 12z and it's west of DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it obviously now looking like there wont be a lot of moisture probably, but still likes a white christmas is possible in parts of n ga and still have a chance of some snow. while i would love a biggie, of course, even a couple of inches would be really nice even if its not warning criteria Yeah I suppose I'm happy the models never really showed a huge event for me (even the Euro didn't show much more than 5" or so). We should at least see some flakes flying Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM@24 look more north and stronger but who knows where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 FFC notes the decreasing moisture in their aftn disco but isn't giving up quite yet. I'd love to be optimistic, but we've seen these non-phased systems come through before and usually the results aren't good. It seems to me that the difference here is that the EURO which everyone wanted to believe in really baited us all in. Unless we get some type of gulf moisture in here, we'll maybe see a passing flurry with some breaks in the clouds. I've seen this rerun too many times. I hope I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm betting NW of Houston @ 48! Lets see NAM@24 look more north and stronger but who knows where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM is still north at 27 of it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM@24 look more north and stronger but who knows where it goes from here. Burgertime. Have you looked at the actual satellite and water vapor loops of the system in the southwest? Just to my untrained eye, the system appears to be lagging behind the northern stream just a bit. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 21 it also looks stronger and N. NAM@24 look more north and stronger but who knows where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'd love to be optimistic, but we've seen these non-phased systems come through before and usually the results aren't good. It seems to me that the difference here is that the EURO which everyone wanted to believe in really baited us all in. Unless we get some type of gulf moisture in here, we'll maybe see a passing flurry with some breaks in the clouds. I've seen this rerun too many times. I hope I'm wrong though. Yeah, but we don't need a phase to get snow-a weak gulf low that goes OTS after crossing Florida can work out nicely for some light snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Burgertime. Have you looked at the actual satellite and water vapor loops of the system in the southwest? Just to my untrained eye, the system appears to be lagging behind the northern stream just a bit. What do you think? Haven't really checked it out, and to be honest I'm not by any means the best to give my opinions on that. I'm sure with my PBP I've been driving a few folks with real knowledge crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @30 it looks like our low is near the Tx/Arkansas border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah I suppose I'm happy the models never really showed a huge event for me (even the Euro didn't show much more than 5" or so). We should at least see some flakes flying Christmas day. maybe thats why i am sort of surprised with how down everyone seems. i knew there was a chance for it to happen, but also that it would have been a rare event so i wasnt really expecting a historic storm. a 1-2" snowfall (or more) in n ga is a pretty decent snow to me and i would still be very very happy! although i will admit that i secretly want the qpf to go way up and not drop anymore i am still looking forward to the next few runs to see how things will evolve now that the wave is readily on shore and moving across the country. could still be a lot of us seeing some snowflakes flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Eyewall, any thoughts on the ull in Iowa? Looks weaker at 30. Plus the NS looks slower at 30. imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @30 it looks like our low is near the Tx/Arkansas border I'm liking the PBP. At least if its a little stronger and north, some of us would see a better chance of snow. I think there's still a couple of curves ahead before all is settled. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well @33 it took the dive south and is right near Houston looks stronger though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Through 24hrs, looks like more interaction between the streams. Precip is increased sig in SE OK, and also a slight tick up in MO. Looking good, but will probably go to crap given previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @36 our low is still in Tx maybe just past Houston and is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Still N however....From the 12 position. Well @33 it took the dive south and is right near Houston looks stronger though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is about the same time the EURO had it near New Orleans. Well @33 it took the dive south and is right near Houston looks stronger though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 maybe thats why i am sort of surprised with how down everyone seems. i knew there was a chance for it to happen, but also that it would have been a rare event so i wasnt really expecting a historic storm. a 1-2" snowfall (or more) in n ga is a pretty decent snow to me and i would still be very very happy! although i will admit that i secretly want the qpf to go way up and not drop anymore I'm with ya on the 1 to 2 inch event, but the way the models are trending, do you really think the QPF will verify that high? I'm just going on history, but it seems that if we want ANY type of accumulation, it better be a somewhat healthier system. Don't flame me , but without any accumulation, I've about had it with the cold already.......75 degrees and sunny would sure feel nice!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Still N however....From the 12 position. Yep I would say this is shaping up to look better but who knows, it might get plowed into Key West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So far through 33 its about like the Euro I think. The southern system is still closed over Dallas but the northern stream looks too far east just barely. I'd prefer the ridge out west to be backed up a 100 miles or so. By 36 hours the southern stream is a healthy closed low in eastern Texas but probably dropping too far south east because the northern stream is pressing down it, and its out ahead of it. I wouln't be suprised to see this Texas system be shunted pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yep I would say this is shaping up to look better but who knows, it might get plowed into Key West. Anyone that can pull the euro up and PBP it would be great. To compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So far through 33 its about like the Euro I think. The southern system is still closed over Dallas but the northern stream looks too far east just barely. I'd prefer the ridge out west to be backed up a 100 miles or so. By 36 hours the southern stream is a healthy closed low in eastern Texas but probably dropping too far south east because the northern stream is pressing down it, and its out ahead of it. I wouln't be suprised to see this Texas system be shunted pretty far south. @39 it took just a slight jog south...still looks pretty close to the 12z but just a hair north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm with ya on the 1 to 2 inch event, but the way the models are trending, do you really think the QPF will verify that high? I'm just going on history, but it seems that if we want ANY type of accumulation, it better be a somewhat healthier system. Don't flame me , but without any accumulation, I've about had it with the cold already.......75 degrees and sunny would sure feel nice!!! i have no idea and would doubt getting a lot of qpf. gsp has updated my forecast from heavy snow to light snow accumulations. but hey i would take it (i am talking an inch or so, which at this point isnt necessarily probably imby either). the NAM and its increased amounts the other day only to have almost none stands out in my mind so i am not even sure i will be comfortable with any models until its christmas morning and i see the echo on the radar and there are reports of it reaching the ground i really hope the system brings enough moisture into n ga and the western carolinas so we can see at least some widespread light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Closed 300mb low in TX at 30hrs, this was not on the 12 or 0z runs... 6z had it, but to the west of the 18z's position at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @42 I would say it looks like the Euro but still doesn't look like it will phase in time. the low is def. stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NE of the 12 position @39 it took just a slight jog south...still looks pretty close to the 12z but just a hair north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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