BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 IT is more the speed for us in the SE Man.. I assume the qpf to the west of you and QC goes down fast.. The interesting thing about FQD is it shows you having snsh until 18z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 you do realize snow sticks at temps above freezing right? Really? At high rates maybe I'd assume. I was under the impression 32.0F was the temp at which things freeze and stay frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 CAE is at .25 for the whole period maybe.. falling as snow but definitely not accumulating. ATL is at .29, probably all snow maybe a brief mix but then then the surface is above freezing. GSP is at .13 as snow, but surface warm. CLT .20 snow, and still barely above freezing on the surface. CHS .44 rain/mix/changing to snow .. above freezing surface... Why would CAE be definitely not accumulating? What is the surface temp? 45? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Really? At high rates maybe I'd assume. I was under the impression 32.0F was the temp at which things freeze and stay frozen. We had accumulating snow here last week at 35-36 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Why would CAE be definitely not accumulating? What is the surface temp? 45? Let me see.. it puts out 2.6 C at the bulk of precip on the surface.. then 1.9 the next frame after .07 more.. then it goes to -1.2 after .01 lol we lack moisture for heavy rates I'd guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Really? At high rates maybe I'd assume. I was under the impression 32.0F was the temp at which things freeze and stay frozen. Most of my wet snow events occur with temps above freezing in the mid and sometimes upper 30s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, let's not get that discouraged yet- just looked at the GFS ensembles and quite a few members are better than the latest op Euro and GFS. We can probably give up on the fantasy the Euro painted before, but if you wipe your mind clean of that and start fresh, I am sure a lot here would gladly take an inch or two this early in the season, and some folks may get more. So take a breath, we still have a system to watch, it is just not a historic one. Imagine if you lived in Washington or Philly, a lot of us down here may do better than they will.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, let's not get that discouraged yet- just looked at the GFS ensembles and quite a few members are better than the latest op Euro and GFS. We can probably give up on the fantasy the Euro painted before, but if you wipe your mind clean of that and start fresh, I am sure a lot here would gladly take an inch or two this early in the season, and some folks may get more. So take a breath, we still have a system to watch, it is just not a historic one. Imagine if you lived in Washington or Philly, a lot of us down here may do better than they will.. Snow is snow, no doubt. But if things don't change, to my knowledge, this is as big of a bust as the euro has ever had. The setup was always tricky, anytime the phase is last minute, it's prob' best to bet on things not working out as timing has to be perfect. It's one reason i never made a real forecast for this one. Just too many variables IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, let's not get that discouraged yet- just looked at the GFS ensembles and quite a few members are better than the latest op Euro and GFS. We can probably give up on the fantasy the Euro painted before, but if you wipe your mind clean of that and start fresh, I am sure a lot here would gladly take an inch or two this early in the season, and some folks may get more. So take a breath, we still have a system to watch, it is just not a historic one. Imagine if you lived in Washington or Philly, a lot of us down here may do better than they will.. Does the Euro show a light snow event for N GA (1" or so) or does it completely shaft us? I know we don't depend on the storm riding up the coast like some in the Carolinas do. I think anyone in the SE should be happy with any accumulating snow at all on Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, let's not get that discouraged yet- just looked at the GFS ensembles and quite a few members are better than the latest op Euro and GFS. We can probably give up on the fantasy the Euro painted before, but if you wipe your mind clean of that and start fresh, I am sure a lot here would gladly take an inch or two this early in the season, and some folks may get more. So take a breath, we still have a system to watch, it is just not a historic one. Imagine if you lived in Washington or Philly, a lot of us down here may do better than they will.. I would be EXTREMELY happy with an inch of snow on Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghost Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Really? At high rates maybe I'd assume. I was under the impression 32.0F was the temp at which things freeze and stay frozen. Last year in the February storm it started sticking from the start when the snow was not that heavy. That was here in Lexington, SC. Temps were around 35 - 36. Never really got down to freezing until the ground was white a few hours later. Is this to be a night time event? Maybe it will be colder. It is enough for me just to see it fall. Got places to go and people to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Also, I forgot to add that we hit almost 70 yesterday in CAE, and looking at the soil temp maps it's currently around 50-55 degrees. And we just lack the moisture I think.. maybe I'm wrong though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 whats the QPF amount its forecasting for the RDU area? 0.17 but please refrain from IMBY posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, let's not get that discouraged yet- just looked at the GFS ensembles and quite a few members are better than the latest op Euro and GFS. We can probably give up on the fantasy the Euro painted before, but if you wipe your mind clean of that and start fresh, I am sure a lot here would gladly take an inch or two this early in the season, and some folks may get more. So take a breath, we still have a system to watch, it is just not a historic one. Imagine if you lived in Washington or Philly, a lot of us down here may do better than they will.. great post! and what I was thinking to myself. I'm going to look at this as a new system. If someone told me we had a chance of an inch or two on Christmas I would have been very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I see where CHS may get some snow, so I would assume Myrtle Beach would see some flurries too? Reading what you guys are saying, so I'm not giving up hope yet. Besides for me on the coast I will take flurries over rain anyday. Thanks again for all the great info. I really hope things turn around. It sure was fun on here yesterday. If nothing else, I sure hope everyone here has a Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Last year in the February storm it started sticking from the start when the snow was not that heavy. That was here in Lexington, SC. Temps were around 35 - 36. Never really got down to freezing until the ground was white a few hours later. Is this to be a night time event? Maybe it will be colder. It is enough for me just to see it fall. Got places to go and people to see Really? What part of Lexington were you in? I do remember when it started it was coming down pretty hard but my temps were around 30/31 when it started and I'm by Lake Murray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On the Euro the 850 temps in the ATL area are about -3 at 18Z and the model breaks out some measurable after that. Then we will have a good chance of -snsh most of the night into the next AM. So an inch in some part of the ATL metro is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghost Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Really? What part of Lexington were you in? I do remember when it started it was coming down pretty hard but my temps were around 30/31 when it started and I'm by Lake Murray. I am in the West Columbia area. I remember looking at the temp to see how warm to dress the kids. Of course they were still out at almost midnight when it was really snowing hard. I figured it was a Friday night and a once in a life time snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Give me an inch on christmas and I'll take it to the bank and cash out. Heck, to see snow FALLING on christmas would be a once in a lifetime treat. People just got too spoiled with the euro showing a historic storm and now a few inches dont sound all that great. Well, I'm happy to see it fall for sure. I'm just I guess.. pessimistic about accumulation around my area because of the low qpf amounts, soil temp, and surface. Really wish the thing would just bomb like it showed before and give EVERYONE something very nice that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The interesting thing is we do better in the southwest and southern piedmont and the coastal plain of NC than anywhere else on the east coast except SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, let's not get that discouraged yet- just looked at the GFS ensembles and quite a few members are better than the latest op Euro and GFS. We can probably give up on the fantasy the Euro painted before, but if you wipe your mind clean of that and start fresh, I am sure a lot here would gladly take an inch or two this early in the season, and some folks may get more. So take a breath, we still have a system to watch, it is just not a historic one. Imagine if you lived in Washington or Philly, a lot of us down here may do better than they will.. Thanks for letting us know there is still something to look forward to. I guess expectations were set so high it seemed like we were out of the game for any accumulation. I would be happy just to see snow falling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 my thoughts on this, in laymen's terms. Pretty much done spelled it out here though http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Got to be seeing lee side development or something.. Last Jan, that development keep it snowing through the night as the ull was pulling away. Tracking this system so hard and having some many ups and downs is killing me. Carry on The interesting thing about FQD is it shows you having snsh until 18z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 my thoughts on this, in laymen's terms. Pretty much done spelled it out here though http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com Hard to stomach but not an unlikely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Okay I'm going to make a call based on the 500mb 48hr EURO. I think the storm will be North of Houston @ 48 instead of LA Coast. If you look @ the contour lines and trough axis it seem to be more North and West than where the Euro puts the Lows, or where it captures the low. So for this reason I'm not giving in just yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 FOX 21 (geer) Andy Wood's thoughts on the Euro. analysis on the Euro: "It looks as if the ridge axis over the Rockies is just a little too far east to allow this thing enough room to phase early enough for a “hug the coast” type pf storm. As we are closing in on the event it seems the models are starting to fall into a consensus of the system tracking further out to sea with the heavier precip remaining near the coast. Eastern NC getting nailed as it looks. The question is… could it trend a little back to the west? Yep, and importantly… sometimes these southern stream systems are more resilient than the models give them credit for. We are talking about a southern stream system that just made a POND out of Las Vegas so it isn’t over yet." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Anyone have the link to Allen (Raleighwx's) page? I used to have it but looked for it in my book marks and it's not there anymore. Thanks! Btw, the high-res models are important to be looking at right now. I suspect tomorrow at 12z when the northern stream fully comes into the US and gets better sampled that we will see some shifts as well, just like what happened last night when the southern stream came ashore. Could be good or bad, hard to know but I would expect another round of model chaos late tonight into tomorrow as the northern stream enters the US and gets sampled fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Anyone have the link to Allen (Raleighwx's) page? I used to have it but looked for it in my book marks and it's not there anymore. Thanks! Btw, the high-res models are important to be looking at right now. I suspect tomorrow at 12z when the northern stream fully comes into the US and gets better sampled that we will see some shifts as well, just like what happened last night when the southern stream came ashore. Could be good or bad, hard to know but I would expect another round of model chaos late tonight into tomorrow as the northern stream enters the US and gets sampled fully. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Seems like the thing that is keeping ALL of us from a good snow is the strength of the southern stream. If it is stronger than the models show then we will have a much different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 FOX 21 (geer) Andy Wood's thoughts on the Euro. analysis on the Euro: "It looks as if the ridge axis over the Rockies is just a little too far east to allow this thing enough room to phase early enough for a “hug the coast” type pf storm. As we are closing in on the event it seems the models are starting to fall into a consensus of the system tracking further out to sea with the heavier precip remaining near the coast. Eastern NC getting nailed as it looks. The question is… could it trend a little back to the west? Yep, and importantly… sometimes these southern stream systems are more resilient than the models give them credit for. We are talking about a southern stream system that just made a POND out of Las Vegas so it isn’t over yet." Now see, that is something that gets my attention right there. If this trend were to change(and I doubt it will), you need to file that quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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