Possible Major Winter Storm/Coastal 3/6 - 3/8

[Northof78]

Strong NAO building in with cold air pressing, while a storm attempts to come up the coast produce potential for a significant winter storm for parts of the area

12Z GFS

[MJO812]

Last threat of the season

 

[sferic]

@jfklganyc  Another possibility, never give up hope

[Jeff Grann]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Last threat of the season

 

For Brooklyn maybe. To say there is no threat after the 1st week in March for the whole forum is very presumptive. 

[crossbowftw3]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Last legitimate forum-wide threat threat of the season

 

ftfy 

[rclab]

8 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

For Brooklyn maybe. To say there is no threat after the 1st week in March for the whole forum is very presumptive. 

Good afternoon Jeff, i believe the intention of the comment was meant entire forum wide. Of course the man made geographic, I 84, 80, an so on, forum divider areas will continue to experience frozen events after our UHI effect paradise has seen its last. In all probability when our northern forum folk call it a day.  Phineas and the good people in the NNE Will probably still be measuring snow and in some cases mud. As always ....

[NycStormChaser]

1 hour ago, Jeff Grann said:

For Brooklyn maybe. To say there is no threat after the 1st week in March for the whole forum is very presumptive. 

Yep. I was in a heavy snowstorm last May in the Catskills. 

[etudiant]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Last threat of the season

 

A bold assertion indeed. Not a projection that I can put much stock in.

Given how erratic this winter has been, we'll probably wind up with a blizzard in May.

[MJO812]

 

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, etudiant said:

A bold assertion indeed. Not a projection that I can put much stock in.

Given how erratic this winter has been, we'll probably wind up with a blizzard in May.

Yes bold

I would love snow all year round 

[IrishRob17]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes bold

I would love snow all year round 

But where would you park?

[rclab]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

But where would you park?

For that matter Irish, where would you drive....?........as always .....

[Jeff Grann]

5 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:

Yep. I was in a heavy snowstorm last May in the Catskills. 

You didn't need to go all the way to the Catskills. Up the Thruway to Harriman and you were in it

[MJO812]

PV over Maine on the GFS , Para and CMC.

Squashes and shreds storm

[NycStormChaser]

12 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

You didn't need to go all the way to the Catskills. Up the Thruway to Harriman and you were in it

Better for photography :-)

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Last threat of the season

 

The last threat of the season can be as late as the third week of April and is typically in the third week of March.

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I think it may be time to shut down this thread. Was opened to early and nothing but bad runs since. We were on a nice hot streak with Walt creating these threads. Why change now, ride the hot hand.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I think it may be time to shut down this thread. Was opened to early and nothing but bad runs since. We were on a nice hot streak with Walt creating these threads. Why change now, ride the hot hand.

Wait what happened, in the March 2021 thread I saw a map posted that had 1 to 2 ft of snow on it.  That was from like 12 hours ago?

 

 

[wdrag]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wait what happened, in the March 2021 thread I saw a map posted that had 1 to 2 ft of snow on it.  That was from like 12 hours ago?

 

 

One run of the V16 I think had quite an event...one member of interest out of the hundreds that that will pour out of the models. the upcoming next week.  Just showed it as potential, but havent tracked the image and i certainly didn't say this would happen.  Too many burns on stuff beyond 7 days.  

What hasn't happened,  to my recollection, is a sudden modeling change 72 hours in advance that goes from nothing to a snowstorm.  While I can't rule this out in the future,  I do think modeling has improved so much the past few years that the so-called SURPRISE snowstorm around NYC is seldom, if at all.  Credit the researchers-modeling capabilities-science. Think that's why we need to monitor ensembles immediately after our interest is piqued with a ballistic single member. We're better off. That way life's good hours don't disappear wasted, in the quest for the elusive snowstorm.

This change in NAO is our immediate shot for an event.  If not this coming week, then I suspect we have to wait another week or longer as it looks mild to me 8th-15th.

However, I am curious about why the jet is depressed (suspiciously low heights southern USA toward the 15th). I've no explanation (unless it's MJO related).  If those heights are that low in the south, then i get interested in what eventually follows since short waves will scoop the Gulf moisture.  Pretty substantial jet resumes by mid March around 35N and the CFS has for the most part been targeting that 35N axis with heavier than normal qpf th'e next 30 days, while we're sometimes in and sometimes north of that axis. 

 

[weatherpruf]

March storms usually find a way to not work out in my region. Even in 2018, only one of them delivered here. Seen it happen, but never really anything impressive. 3-6 of wet stuff ( more like 2-4 ) is the usual event. with a few exceptions over the last few decades. I get harped on here every March after a decent winter ( or just when it looks like a big one will hit ) and only one time, March 2018, the last storm, did I see a decent storm. But it is what it is, and even the 93 superstorm was a bit of a letdown here with all the mixing; if not for the icy coating, it would have just been a decent 10 inch storm. So a decent 3-6 event here is all bonus, and I don't expect much more in March. And the rare 3-6 in April is always a bonus, even if gone in a day....

[MJO812]

NAO blocking is squashing this storm on the models. Horrible. 

Hopefully its wrong

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

One run of the V16 I think had quite an event...one member of interest out of the hundreds that that will pour out of the models. the upcoming next week.  Just showed it as potential, but havent tracked the image and i certainly didn't say this would happen.  Too many burns on stuff beyond 7 days.  

What hasn't happened,  to my recollection, is a sudden modeling change 72 hours in advance that goes from nothing to a snowstorm.  While I can't rule this out in the future,  I do think modeling has improved so much the past few years that the so-called SURPRISE snowstorm around NYC is seldom, if at all.  Credit the researchers-modeling capabilities-science. Think that's why we need to monitor ensembles immediately after our interest is piqued with a ballistic single member. We're better off. That way life's good hours don't disappear wasted, in the quest for the elusive snowstorm.

This change in NAO is our immediate shot for an event.  If not this coming week, then I suspect we have to wait another week or longer as it looks mild to me 8th-15th.

However, I am curious about why the jet is depressed (suspiciously low heights southern USA toward the 15th). I've no explanation (unless it's MJO related).  If those heights are that low in the south, then i get interested in what eventually follows since short waves will scoop the Gulf moisture.  Pretty substantial jet resumes by mid March around 35N and the CFS has for the most part been targeting that 35N axis with heavier than normal qpf th'e next 30 days, while we're sometimes in and sometimes north of that axis. 

 

Nothing to a snowstorm the only one I can remember recently is the renowned Boxing Day Blizzard December 2010

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

NAO blocking is squashing this storm on the models. Horrible. 

Hopefully its wrong

root for the SE Ridge, it usually ends up stronger than modeled.

Maybe those warm SST will work out in our favor this time.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

March storms usually find a way to not work out in my region. Even in 2018, only one of them delivered here. Seen it happen, but never really anything impressive. 3-6 of wet stuff ( more like 2-4 ) is the usual event. with a few exceptions over the last few decades. I get harped on here every March after a decent winter ( or just when it looks like a big one will hit ) and only one time, March 2018, the last storm, did I see a decent storm. But it is what it is, and even the 93 superstorm was a bit of a letdown here with all the mixing; if not for the icy coating, it would have just been a decent 10 inch storm. So a decent 3-6 event here is all bonus, and I don't expect much more in March. And the rare 3-6 in April is always a bonus, even if gone in a day....

I've enjoyed April snow a lot more than March snow......4/82, 4/96, 4/03 and 4/18 were all great here.

 

[MJO812]

We have a chance next weekend with the NAO briefly going negative, AO briefly going negative and PNA going slightly positive for a brief time.

 

Not sure if this month will be warm. Gfs and gefs has caved to the Euro with the MJO going into 8 and 1.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I've enjoyed April snow a lot more than March snow......4/82, 4/96, 4/03 and 4/18 were all great here.

 

Didn't get the 4/96 one here, though areas just a few miles away from me did. April 82 remains the gold standard.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We have a chance next weekend with the NAO briefly going negative, AO briefly going negative and PNA going slightly positive for a brief time.

 

Not sure if this month will be warm. Gfs and gefs has caved to the Euro with the MJO going into 8 and 1.

I can't  remember the last time March wasn't a mess, even if temps were mild, it was wet and rainy.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I can't  remember the last time March wasn't a mess, even if temps were mild, it was wet and rainy.

I guess it's just a different world there. I'm only 45 miles by way of the crow north of NYC and at elevation of  620 feet, most of Orange County is 500 to 1000 feet above sea level except those towns right on the river, and I had 50 inches of snow March 2, 2018 through April 2, 2018. The first three weeks of March is just a continuation of winter here in most years. Very different climates in this sub forum.

[weatherpruf]

54 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I guess it's just a different world there. I'm only 45 miles by way of the crow north of NYC and at elevation of  620 feet, most of Orange County is 500 to 1000 feet above sea level except those towns right on the river, and I had 50 inches of snow March 2, 2018 through April 2, 2018. The first three weeks of March is just a continuation of winter here in most years. Very different climates in this sub forum.

Yep. I remember reading a memoir by a woman whose husband moved them all to Maine. She had to drive up with the kids in April from MD, and she rain into a snowstorm in ME; she writes that she didn't know it at the time, but April is still a winter month in upper ME. She left the guy. In NYC and points southeast, snows above 10 inches are not common in March. But then, they really weren't that common at any time in years past; someone posted here, an 8 inch storm in the mid-70's and the traffic report in the city, like 8 inches was a really big deal. Prior to 1978, it was!

[Snowzone]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I guess it's just a different world there. I'm only 45 miles by way of the crow north of NYC and at elevation of  620 feet, most of Orange County is 500 to 1000 feet above sea level except those towns right on the river, and I had 50 inches of snow March 2, 2018 through April 2, 2018. The first three weeks of March is just a continuation of winter here in most years. Very different climates in this sub forum.

I'm about 15 miles NW of NYC at an elevation of 255 feet above sea level and received a total of 31 inches of snow from March 2, 2018 - April 2, 2018