March 2021 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies relative to 30-year average still in use (1981-2010 until notified otherwise) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +2.0

NYC +1.7

BOS: +2.1

ORD: +2.2

ATL:  +2.4

IAH:  +2.3

DEN: +1.6

PHX: +1.7

SEA:  -1.0

[Rjay]

DCA: +2.5

NYC +2.5

BOS: +2.5

ORD: +2.5

ATL:  +1.5

IAH:  +2.0

DEN: +2.5

PHX: +2.5

SEA:  -2.0

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0      0.5        0.5     1.0      2.0           1.0      1.5     0.0 

[wxallannj]

DCA: +1.4

NYC +1.5

BOS: +1.3

ORD: +2.9

ATL:  +1.2

IAH:  +1.3

DEN: +2.2

PHX: +1.2

SEA:  -1.8

[bkviking]

DCA: +1.9

NYC +1.4

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +2.5

ATL:  +1.1

IAH:  +2.0

DEN: +1.1

PHX: +1.1

SEA:  -2.0

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5      1.4      1.2        3.0     2.5      3.1           2.2      0.3     -2.1

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.1      -0.2     -0.1       0.8     0.0      0.2           0.9      0.6     -0.5

[Roger Smith]

--1.2 _ --1.4 _ --1.8 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 _ --0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ --1.2

[wxdude64]

Oops! Lost track of days...

DCA:  +3.1

NYC:  +2.3

BOS:  +1.9

ORD:  -1.3

ATL:  +1.1

IAH:  +1.2

DEN:  -2.2

PHX:  +1.1

SEA:  -1.1

[so_whats_happening]

wooof competely missed that deadline lol

DCA: +3.1

NYC +2.3

BOS: +1.8

ORD: +2.6

ATL:  +3.2

IAH:  +3.4

DEN: +1.8

PHX: +2.2

SEA:  -0.5

[Tom]

DCA: +2.2

NYC +2.0

BOS: +2.2

ORD: +1.6

ATL:  +1.8

IAH:  +1.9

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +0.5

SEA:  +0.2

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for March 2021

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ Bias vs con

wxdude64 __________ (-1%) _____+3.1 _ +2.3 _ +1.9 ___ --1.3 _ +1.1 _ +1.2 ___ --2.2 _ +1.1 _ --1.1 ____ --0.59

so_whats_happening (-2%) _____+3.1 _ +2.3 _ +1.8 ___ +2.6 _ +3.2 _ +3.4 ___ +1.8 _ +2.2 _ --0.5 ____ +0.94

RJay __________________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ --2.0 ____ +0.57

Tom _______________ (-5%) ______+2.2 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +1.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.9 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 ____ +0.42

hudsonvalley21 ________________+2.0 _ +1.7 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.3 ___ +1.6 _ +1.7 _ --1.0 ____ +0.40

BKViking ______________________ +1.9 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.1 _ +2.0 ___ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ --2.0 ____ --0.14

 

___ Consensus ________________ +1.9 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 ___ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ --1.0

 

DonSutherland 1 ______________ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +3.1 ___ +2.2 _ +0.3 _ --2.1 ____ +0.19

wxallannj ______________________+1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___ +2.9 _ +1.2 _ +1.3 ___ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ --1.8 ____ --0.02

Scotty Lightning _______________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ____ --0.32

___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ --1.27

RodneyS ______________________--0.1 _ --0.2 _ --0.1 ___ +0.8 __ 0.0 _ +0.2 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _ --0.5 ____ --1.09

Roger Smith __________________ --1.2 _ --1.4 _ --1.8 ___ --1.5 _ --0.5 _ --0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ --1.2 ____ --1.92

===========================================================

Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is coldest for PHX. 

Bias shows your forecast tendencies averaged out relative to group consensus. 

Most are expecting slightly warmer than average (which is probably where the 1991-2020 normals will come in). 

 

[so_whats_happening]

Are we switching to 1991-2020 averages and then retroactively changing past months when it comes out (whenever it fully is done being implemented) or finishing the year with our 1981-2010 baseline?

[Roger Smith]

I hadn't mentally addressed that question, have been assuming we would all know in advance when they were going to switch the reference point and make our forecasts based on that expectation? I will ask each regular entrant what they think of the situation by private message and get back to the group on that. I was told by Don S that the 1991-2020 normals won't be "ratified" before May of this year so it seems unlikely to me that they would put them into use before that. 

Also I assume people made their forecasts so far with reference to 1981-2010 averages. I will ask if anyone has made any forecasts on any other assumption. The 1991-2020 normals are probably going to be only 0.2 to 0.5 higher, I already worked out NYC on a file I am developing and the results are in that range generally.

If others read this and want to comment, go ahead but look for a message in your in-box.

The policy I would most likely go with is to use whatever normal they use whether people know in advance or not, if the differentials are fairly small I can't see where it would greatly influence the outcome. If we go retroactive then the main beneficiary would be anyone who went a bit warmer than consensus on all locations, their errors might then shrink down by 6-10 points a station as the new normals would be closer to their forecasts than the current ones (in most cases).

Unless I hear a different consensus from the group, we would use the anomaly reported on the 1st of the next month on the relevant CF6 monthly summaries, and if they change those anomalies later, so be it, the first reported value would be "contest official." There is no absolute guarantee that the CF6 has the final actuals either, I seem to remember one occasion when they sent a memo around saying that Boston actuals had been changed several weeks after the month had ended for some reason, and we didn't go back in and change the scores for that month although it probably changed the outcome. Maybe we should have done so? I might not have been scoring then, this was perhaps back around 2009.

If you want to suggest any possible approaches to this, be my guest. I started scoring this contest around 2011 and I don't remember if we had a similar situation at the end of 1971-2000 normals or not. The material is lost over on defunct Eastern Weather Forum now, including the trainwreck of the March 2012 contest where NYC ran +12 or something like that. Even the 2190-2220 normals would have failed to save anyone there. 

[Roger Smith]

Just for general interest,, this is what I calculate to be the differential between 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 NYC averages. The numbers are to be read as (1991-2020) minus (1981-2010) for each month. This is not official and is based on their official website monthly values with my excel program doing the average in each case. 

JAN __ FEB __ MAR __ APR __ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT __ NOV __ DEC ____ YEAR

0.5 ___ 0.0 ___--0.2 ___ 0.1 ___ 0.3 ___ 0.1 ___ 0.5 ___ 0.3 ___ 0.7 ___ 0.5 ___ --0.2 ___ 1.0 _____ 0.3

March and November will drop slightly, the other ten months will go up by various amounts, December showing the largest increase, followed by September. These would be the new normals according to my way of calculating which is to take an average of all daily highs and lows, the normals may come from averages of monthly means and be very slightly different from these. I show these to two decimals partly to indicate where the official numbers are perhaps more likely to come out differently. 

33.55 _ 35.73 _ 42.71 _ 53.52 _ 63.05 _ 71.92 _ 77.37 _ 75.98 _ 69.08 _ 57.81 _ 47.87 _ 38.91 ___ 55.62

The Jan number rounds down to 33.5 and the May number rounds upward to 63.1 (based on third decimals not shown here).

 

 

[RodneyS]

I have based my 2021 forecasts on the 1981-2010 normals because otherwise I would just be engaging in informed speculation about the forthcoming 1991-2020 normals.  It doesn't matter to me what the base is, as long as I know what it is.  For example, you could set the base as historical average temperatures back to the 19th Century, in which case I would rarely submit a negative value. So, if I were running the contest, I would continue to use the 1981-2010 normals as the base until the 1991-2020 normals are officially established.

[wxdude64]

I am with Rodney above. I'd just be taking a stab in the dark until they make it official.

[Roger Smith]

Thanks to all who responded, I've heard back from most by private message plus the two responses above.

So the plan will be to continue on with whatever normal value is announced for use, I do anticipate a change to 1991-2020 at some point later this year, until the NWS informs us that they are making the change, the 1981-2010 normals will be used (a) to set their end of month anomalies in reporting products such as CF6, and (b) by me when scoring the contest. 

The only problem may come in the month when a change occurs, if they make the change during the month and I've already taken in your forecasts on the assumption they would be relative to 1981-2010. If that happens, I will deal with it in consultation with you, some may feel that if they had known the end of month would be against 1991-2020 but they predicted vs 1981-2010, it would require an adjustment. That partly depends on what month and what the differentials are. And it may take some digging to find the old and the new normal values so we know what we are working with. 

So thanks for the input, I was already thinking we might need to address this some month around May or June, whenever they do bring these new normals into operation. 

[Roger Smith]

Okay, then, here are the anomalies we have run up so far as the weather turns quite warm in many areas the past few days after a cold start to the month ...

_________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

11th ____ (10d anom) ___ +0.8 _ --1.5 _ --1.8 __ +8.2 _ +1.4 _ --0.5 ___ +7.8 _ +3.4 __ 0.0

21st ____ (20d anom) ___ +2.5 _ --0.1 _ +0.6 __ +5.9 _ +3.7 _ +1.9 ___ +0.3 _ --0.8 _--0.5 

29th ____ (28d anom) ___ +4.4 _ +3.2 _ +3.3 __ +6.4 _ +5.5 _ +1.8 ___ --0.7 _ --1.6 _--0.7

 

11th ____ (p20d anom) __--1.5 _ --2.5 _ --3.5 __ +2.0 _ --0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0

11th ____ (p27d anom) __--1.0 _ --2.0 _ --3.0 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

21st ____ (p31d anom) __ +2.0 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ --0.5

29th ____ (p31d anom) __ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 __ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +2.0 ___ --1.0 _ --1.5 _ --0.5

1st Apr __ (final anoms) _ +4.4 _ +3.3 _ +3.7 __ +6.3 _ +4.8 _ +1.7 ___ --1.0 _ --1.1 _ --0.9

 

11th _ Much colder again within a day or two, especially over New England but a fairly extensive spread of colder air through mid-month; the pattern from day 11 to 16 looks relatively close to average. The projections to end of the month are based on a generally near normal regime starting out with small positive anomalies and moving to somewhat larger negative anomalies before the month ends. I will wait a few days and adjust the provisionals around the 24th then post some estimated scoring for later corrections. 

Snowfall contest update will be posted in this thread around mid-month, not much has changed since Feb 28 update in the last thread. 

21st _ After a few very warm days, colder weather did arrive but the overall change to anomalies was in some cases more upward than downward since the previous report. 

29th _ It has stayed quite warm in the east; revised projections will make a reliable basis for provisional scoring (to follow). Snowfall contest updated, only DEN has seen snow since last update. 

31st _ 1st Apr __ Final anomalies are now all posted and scoring will soon be complete. 

[donsutherland1]

On 3/6/2021 at 6:15 PM, Roger Smith said:

 

Unless I hear a different consensus from the group, we would use the anomaly reported on the 1st of the next month on the relevant CF6 monthly summaries, and if they change those anomalies later, so be it, the first reported value would be "contest official." There is no absolute guarantee that the CF6 has the final actuals either, I seem to remember one occasion when they sent a memo around saying that Boston actuals had been changed several weeks after the month had ended for some reason, and we didn't go back in and change the scores for that month although it probably changed the outcome.

I believe this makes sense.

[Roger Smith]

Winter Snowfall contest 2020-2021  -- Table of entries

_ updated after some heavy snowfall at DEN and a few other small additions in March _ 

the table is now set by ranked total departures to date. The second value in brackets 

represents errors that can only increase (locations with more snow than forecast). 

The red highlighted numbers are best forecasts at this stage, and those underlined

are settled as such because all forecasts have already been passed. BOS is tied for

best forecasts on either side (37.0, actual 38.5, 40.0). 

(Mar 31 update _ Only DEN added any snow since last report, as shown. )

 

FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ current total dep

snowfall to Mar 31___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 ___48.8 _ 41.3 _ 72.1 __ 67.6 _ 12.9 _ 59.5

RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0 _____ 54.7 (43.7)

__ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3 ______ 82.1 (35.0)

wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0 _____ 82.1 (43.3)

hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2 _____ 93.2 (29.9)

wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1 _____ 95.7 (21.8)

Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9 _____ 99.1 (67.5)

Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3 _____ 99.7 (31.0) 

RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6 _____103.9 (90.0)

Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5 ____ 108.1 (37.6)

Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 _ 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0 ____ 127.9 (24.8)

snowfall to Mar 28 ___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 ___48.8 _ 41.3 _ 72.1 __ 67.6 _ 12.9 _ 59.5

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Mar 17 _ RJay and wxallannj can only separate with snow at DCA (more than 8.0" or 2.6" more than now), BUF (up to 2.9" more can be an advantage to RJay, after that no differential), DET (up to 5.7" more can be an advantage for wxallannj) and DEN (up to 4.2" more can help RJay). Another 5.5" at BTV will be needed before wxallannj can gain an advantage there. Other locations are already out of play. Others have a mathematical route to a win in the contest too. 

It is quite likely that 4.2" more would fall at DEN so that would leave RJay 8.4" further ahead than now (19.0" advantage at present, would be 27.4"). Also, the 2.9" available to RJay at BUF seems likely, so that gives another 5.8" boost to the differential (33.2"). Wxallannj would need to find 16.6" of advantages at his prospects (DCA > 8.0, DTW 5.7 available, and any amounts greater than 5.5" at BTV. This probably means overall it's quite close at the top. 

Mar 29 _ As to the above, more than 4.2" has been added at DEN which does leave RJay further ahead. No other changes yet. Only wxdude64 and Scotty L have any further gains to make at DEN and twice the difference on those gains would not bring them within striking distance of the lead so they would need some other help to move up further. April snowfalls at BTV look to be their best hope. 

Mar 31 _ Another 1.5" added at DEN on 30th. 

NOTE: UPDATED FOR APRIL SNOWFALLS in APRIL CONTEST THREAD (Apr 23)

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for March 2021

 

Final anomalies __________ +4.4 _ +3.3 _ +3.7 __ +6.3 _ +4.8 _ +1.7 ___ --1.0 _ --1.1 _ --0.9

... small late penalties of 1 or 2 points incorporated where * or ** appear. For slightly larger late penalties on Tom,

raw scores in orange, adjusted below in regular type.

ORD was scored by "max 60" rule but ATL ended up with a raw score of 72 so by the rules it was scored by raw scores

for all forecasts. The scores marked with ^ symbol are adjusted up from raw scores to progression

(60, 54, 48 etc). Late penalties reduced some by 1 pts.

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTAL

 

wxdude64 __________ (-1%) _____73*_ 79*_ 63*__215 __ 06^_ 26 _ 89*__119 __ 334 __ 75*_ 55*_ 95*___ 225 ____ 561

so_whats_happening (-2%) _____73*_ 78** 61*__212 __ 47^_ 71*_ 65*__183 __ 395 __ 43*_ 33*_ 90**__ 166 ____ 561

hudsonvalley21 ________________52 _ 68 _ 68 __ 188 __ 30^_ 52 _ 88 ___ 170 __ 358 __ 48 _ 44 _ 98 ____ 190 ____ 548

Tom ___________________________56 _ 74 _ 70 __ 200 __ 24^_ 40 _ 96 __ 160 __ 360 __  60 _ 68 _ 78 ____ 206 _ 566

____________________ (-5%) ______53 _ 70 _ 67 __ 190 __ 23 _ 38 _ 91 ___ 152 __ 342 __ 57 _ 65 _ 74 ____ 196 ____ 538

RJay __________________________ 62 _ 84 _ 76 __ 222 __ 42^_ 34 _ 94 ___170 __ 392 __ 30 _ 28 _ 78 ____ 136 ____ 528

 

___ Consensus ________________ 50 _ 64 _ 52 __ 166 __ 30^_ 28 _ 94 ___ 152 __ 318 __ 58 _ 54 _ 98 ____ 210 ____ 528

 

DonSutherland 1 ______________ 42 _ 62 _ 50 __ 154 __ 60^_ 54 _ 72 __ 186 __ 340 __ 36 _ 72 _ 76 ____ 184 ____ 524

BKViking ______________________ 50 _ 62 _ 46 __ 158 __ 42^_ 26 _ 94 __ 162 __ 320 __ 58 _ 56 _ 78 ____ 192 ____ 512

wxallannj ______________________40 _ 64 _ 52 __ 156 __ 54^_ 28 _ 92 __ 174 __ 330 __ 36 _ 54 _ 82 ____ 172 ____ 502

Scotty Lightning _______________32 _ 54 _ 36 __ 122 __ 12^_ 24 _ 94 __ 130 __ 252 __ 60 _ 48 _ 82 ____ 190 ____ 442

___ Normal ____________________12 _ 34 _ 26 __ 072 __ 10^_ 04 _ 66 ___ 080 __ 152 __ 80 _ 78 _ 82 ____ 240 ____ 392

RodneyS ______________________ 10 _ 30 _ 24 __ 064 __ 18^_ 04 _ 70 __ 092 __ 156 __ 62 _ 66 _ 92 ____ 220 ____ 376

Roger Smith ___________________00 _ 06 _ 00 __ 006 __ 00 _ 00 _ 56 ___ 056 __ 058 __ 60 _ 54 _ 94 ____ 208 ____ 266

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT 

Five locations saw a high score going to warmest forecast(s) and two for the coldest. 

DCA had a tie between so_whats_happening and wxdude64 who both predicted +3.1 (final +4.4).

NYC and BOS both go to RJay with +2.5 forecasts (NYC prov +3.5, BOS final +3.7).

ORD heads to DonSutherland1 (+3.0) (actual +6.3) and ATL to so_whats_happening with +3.2 (actual +4.8).

DEN will be a win for wxdude64 (-2.2) as well as Normal (actual -1.0).  

PHX will be a win for DonSutherland1 with +0.3 as well as Normal, with outcome -1.1.

IAH (+1.7) and SEA (-0.9) are out of the running with consensus closer than the extreme forecasts. 

So in total that's two wins each for Normal, RJay, DonSutherland1, wxdude64 and and so_whats_happening.

______________________________________________

Annual update has been posted and is now also confirmed. Looks very competitive after March.  

We had a tie for scoring lead in March, congrats to wxdude64 and so_whats_happening who overcame slight late penalties;

Tom actually had a higher score before his somewhat larger late penalty reduced the outcome to fourth place. 

 

[Roger Smith]

<<<<<< ================ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Mar) - - - - ==================== >>>>>>>> 

 

High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. 

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

 

DonSutherland1 _______________184 _190 _164 __538 __165 _206 _168 __539 __1077 __150 _238 _222 __610 ____ 1687

wxdude64 _____________________215 _213 _219 __647 __ 67 _128 _155 __350 ___ 997 __161 _249 _229 __ 639 ____ 1636

 

___ Consensus ________________ 208 _218 _206 __632 __ 72 _152 _160 __384 __ 1016 __136 _236 _228 __600 ____ 1616

 

BKViking ______________________ 182 _212 _210 __604 __ 62 _178 _166 __406 __1010 __126 _234 _236 __596 ____ 1606

RodneyS ______________________ 170 _200 _194 __564 __ 87 _152 _122 __361 ___ 925 __174 _250 _256 __680 ____ 1605

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 198 _194 _210 __602 __ 81 _182 _170 __433 __1035 __108 _214 _238 __560 ____ 1595

Tom ___________________________ 213 _238 _241 __692 __ 48 _128 _155 __331 __1023 __119 _257 _172 __548 ____ 1571

wxallannj ______________________ 180 _218 _194 __592 __ 92 _148 _140 __380 ___ 972 __102 _224 _210 __536 ____ 1508

so_whats_happening ___________217 _190 _161 __568 __103 _229 _107 __439 __1007 __ 97 _223 _162 __482 ____ 1489

Scotty Lightning _______________ 166 _188 _168 __522 __ 18 _176 _182 __376 ___ 898 __148 _220 _196 __ 564 ____ 1462

RJay __________________________ 196 _196 _158 __550 __ 98 _146 _158 __402 ___ 952 __114 _170 _156 __440 _____ 1392

___ Normal _____________________136 _168 _168 __472 __ 10 _116 _130 __256 ___ 728 __158 _250 _204 __612 ____ 1340

Roger Smith ___________________ 122 _114 _ 84 __320 __111 _ 98 _214 __423 ___ 743 __134 _ 158 _196 __490 ____ 1233

____________________________________________________________________________

 

Best scores for the locations and regions 

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan 

wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t)

___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

RodneyS _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb 

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) 

Scotty Lightning ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

___ Normal ___________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __  

Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS

High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify.

So far this year, 16 locations out of 27 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb and 7 in March. Of those, ten were awarded to warmest forecasts, six to coldest.

A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month.

Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There has been one shared win accounting for the 17 total wins (excl Normal). 

 

FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _____ TOTAL to date

 

DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 _____ 5-0

Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ ---- _____ 4-1

wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 _____ 3-0

so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 _____ 3-0

RJay ___________________ ---- __ ---- __ 2-0 _____ 2-0

Normal _________________---- __ ---- __ 2-0 _____ 2-0

__________________________________________