cyclone77 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Still have a few inches of snow in the backyard, with remaining drifts of 10" or so, but the front and side yard is mostly bare now. The great glacier of 2021 has held quite admirably considering the past few weeks of warmth, and no measurable snow since way back on Feb 18th. If not for the raging sleet storm in late Dec, and several freezing rain events this stuff would have been gone a week ago. The snow has held our temps back compared to nearby areas just south, like MLI for example. We hit 52 today which was the warmest so far of the season. Looks like 60 tomorrow and mid 60s Mon-Wed. MLI will prob tag 70 somewhere in the Mon-Wed stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Today is the first day we finally make a big jump out of the 40s. We're expecting 60º. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 MLI should have their first 60 of the season today as well. Prob mid 50s here as we melt the remaining snow. HRRR and RGEM both show 70 tomorrow for MLI. That'll get the ol' birds cheepin' lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Impressive map for the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: MLI should have their first 60 of the season today as well. Prob mid 50s here as we melt the remaining snow. HRRR and RGEM both show 70 tomorrow for MLI. That'll get the ol' birds cheepin' lol HRRR even has mid-upper 60s here tomorrow... warmer than other guidance but I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it entirely. Have seen many times when early season warmth overperforms, whether it is due to the lack of vegetation or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Impressive map for the country GFS keeps wanting to add a bit to those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: HRRR even has mid-upper 60s here tomorrow... warmer than other guidance but I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it entirely. Have seen many times when early season warmth overperforms, whether it is due to the lack of vegetation or whatever. Yeah tomorrow looks pretty good. West-southwest surface winds always do well here for overperforming temps. Very dry surface conditions just sw where snow has been gone for awhile now. Red flag warnings not too far away in northeast MO today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 HRRR even has mid-upper 60s here tomorrow... warmer than other guidance but I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it entirely. Have seen many times when early season warmth overperforms, whether it is due to the lack of vegetation or whatever.The HRRR has done very well since we flipped to the milder pattern. Has hit on just about every warmer day thus far around here. So I’d say ride it... . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The HRRR has done very well since we flipped to the milder pattern. Has hit on just about every warmer day this far around here. So I’d say ride it... . Good to know. Haven't really been paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 The snow cover and southeast wind over northeast/east-central Iowa continue to play a major factor in temps. My yard is closing in on 60º. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Surface winds have been a bit slower to veer compared to what short-term guidance forecast earlier in the day, and has resulted in temps a few degrees cooler than progged. Still, MLI at 63, and 57 here. Tomorrow we make that run at 70 with the westerly winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 8, 2021 Author Share Posted March 8, 2021 We want to see Tuesday too, right? Yeah we do. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 The DVN radar is being shut off March 11th for "life extension" and could be down for a week. Pretty stupid to schedule something like that in spring/summer/fall when severe is possible. Best time would be in met winter even though it's service would be missed during a winter storm. Still better than being out of commission during severe weather season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 20 hours ago, Hoosier said: HRRR even has mid-upper 60s here tomorrow... warmer than other guidance but I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it entirely. Have seen many times when early season warmth overperforms, whether it is due to the lack of vegetation or whatever. This is entirely accurate, for whatever reason. This may be anecdotal or empirical, but having lived nearly my entire life (aside from a few years out west) in either the Ohio Valley or Upper Midwest - yes, I consider Pittsburgh the Ohio Valley because it technically is - it seems like when we’re talking about the first time in a calendar year to hit a temperature milestone (50, 60, 70, 80), especially in a pattern flip from cold to warm, a large number of those have occurred on days when temperatures outperformed most to all forecasts and model guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Hopefully it's just another case of the canadian being the canadian but it shows us going into the single digits latter half of next week. After this week that's going to feel even worse than it sounds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 just got our first 60 of the season here. Snow coverage down below 50% in my neighborhood. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 torching away at 68. I will gladly kiss all snow/cold goodbye in return for this until summer. All positive vibes from the neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 8, 2021 Author Share Posted March 8, 2021 Come on ORD, what's the matter with you? You don't want to get to the mid 60s? Wonder if there is some effect with the winds advecting in off of the lingering snowpack to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 64 imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 8, 2021 Author Share Posted March 8, 2021 From the LOT afd.... pretty unbelievable Our stretch of above-normal temperatures has also come with no precipitation, with the last instance of such on February 28. In fact, never in our records has the first 8 days of March featured no precipitation in Chicago! The same is not true in Rockford as several years featured measurable precipitation on the 1st of March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Could be some severe weather this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Could be some severe weather this week ACUS48 KWNS 080959 SPC AC 080959 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Mon Mar 08 2021 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... The medium-range models begin the Day 4 to 8 period in good agreement. Model solutions show southwest mid-level flow from the south-central U.S. to the Northeast. An upper-level low is forecast over southern California. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along parts of the front during the afternoon and evening. Although instability is forecast to be weak ahead of the front Thursday afternoon, strong deep-layer shear should be adequate for at least isolated severe storms. The severe threat should extend from northwest Texas northeastward across the Ozarks and into the lower Ohio Valley. Hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. On Friday, the models continue to be in good agreement. The solutions move the upper-level low into the Desert Southwest and have an upper-level ridge in the south-central states. The cold front is forecast to move slowly southward and may stall from the southern Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley during the day on Friday. Model forecasts suggest that thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms would be from Oklahoma eastward into Arkansas, where low-level moisture, deep layer shear and instability are forecast to be maximized. Although there is some spread among the GEFS members, on Saturday the deterministic solutions remain in relatively good agreement. The upper-level low is forecast to move into the Four Corners region as a mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of the approaching system, strong moisture advection is forecast in the southern Plains where a corridor of 60+ surface dewpoints appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks throughout the day. An increase in thunderstorm coverage may take place in the late afternoon and evening as instability maximizes across the region. Model forecasts show a potential for moderate instability, widespread large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks. All severe threat hazards will be possible, but the magnitude and spatial extent of the severe threat will depend upon moisture return and the eastward timing of the system. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, the upper-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward from the Great Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Severe thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both on Sunday and on Monday. At this time, models suggest that the greatest severe threat will be located in eastern parts of the southern Plains and in the Ozarks on Sunday. The severe threat should shift eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. However, uncertainty concerning the timing of the system is substantial at this extended range in the forecast period. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 63 here so far, 67 at MLI. Quite a few mid-upper level clouds co ck blocked our 70 potential, but still an exceedingly nice day. Went out and picked up all the twigs and branches that fell off during the cold season. Yard is pretty squishy from all the additional moisture from the melt. Still have a remnant drift of about 6" deep across much of the backyard, but most areas are bare now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 63 here so far, 67 at MLI. Quite a few mid-upper level clouds co ck blocked our 70 potential, but still an exceedingly nice day. Went out and picked up all the twigs and branches that fell off during the cold season. Yard is pretty squishy from all the additional moisture from the melt. Still have a remnant drift of about 6" deep across much of the backyard, but most areas are bare now. Glacier still holding strong or has the warmth took a toll on it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Glacier still holding strong or has the warmth took a toll on it?that was literally answered in his post.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: ..Broyles.. 03/08/2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Been a while since I posted. Been real quiet on the weather front with rather mild temps at times, like today. Couple of cold snaps were mixed in there as well. Sloppy weather coming up in a couple days, though. Might see some acc snow. Feb temp data out, so here is how we stand for our region in the scheme of things. Definitely one of the colder Feb's in the record. Edit: Replaced chart with the one that should be here for our entire region, not just upper midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2021 Author Share Posted March 9, 2021 My snowpile in the shade is still hanging on even with a high of 67. Some leftover snow also remains in shaded areas adjacent to people's houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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