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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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6 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

The Euro and some ensembles actually leave some energy behind after Friday to redevelop a coastal around day 7 or so . Something else to watch 

the only thing there is to watch is winter saying bye bye. Every threat is falling apart

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31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

You might want to peek at the Euro and para buddy:ph34r:

Aside from the elevation out near your way, I'm not too certain that 0.1-0.2" QPF falling at 35 degrees during midday March 19th would provide for anything other than mood flakes. I do find it somewhat interesting that the Euro takes most of the subforum into the mid/low 20s following that system for Friday night. A pretty chilly airmass for sure, but that warmup behind it should send us one step closer to tracking fantasy sunspots and SAI soon enough :sun:

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1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Aside from the elevation out near your way, I'm not too certain that 0.1-0.2" QPF falling at 35 degrees during midday March 19th would provide for anything other than mood flakes. I do find it somewhat interesting that the Euro takes most of the subforum into the mid/low 20s following that system for Friday night. A pretty chilly airmass for sure, but that warmup behind it should send us one step closer to tracking fantasy sunspots and SAI soon enough :sun:

Ultimately winter is going bye-bye, so Ji is right. And realistically the late week event, such that it is, may bring some decent(and needed) rain, and possibly some very modest frozen as it departs. Upside of maybe an inch?  Ok cool, but hell even here that doesn't do much for me. Sure I could say my winter snow total is 13" instead of 12, lol. I am all in for a late season warning level event, but there is no sign of that.

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4 hours ago, Ji said:

the only thing there is to watch is winter saying bye bye. Every threat is falling apart

Why would you have thought March would be better ? Nothing really showed that two weeks ago. Pac sucks. PNA , AO and NAO not playing nice. Shorter wave lenghts was the only hope, but in a winter such as this past one,  persistent failure would always be the most likely outcome.  Good bye stupid Para snowfall maps, hello sunshine. Was another frustrasting winter in these parts. I still hear from the plow guys, soon to be grass cutters,  that snowfall predictions were always 1/4 of what was forecasted.    

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The late week event isn't LR anymore, but since it is being discussed here still..

The real story is it's looking like a respectable period of rain for the warm part of the storm. Probably a decent soaking of an inch+ the way it looks now, and with no rain for going on 3 weeks, it is needed. The colder air that comes in as the precip is ending still may produce a little snow, but doesn't appear it would last long or be cold enough at the surface to amount to anything.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The late week event isn't LR anymore, but since it is being discussed here still..

The real story is it's looking like a respectable period of rain for the warm part of the storm. Probably a decent soaking of an inch+ the way it looks now, and with no rain for going on 3 weeks, it is needed. The colder air that comes in as the precip is ending still may produce a little snow, but doesn't appear it would last long or be cold enough at the surface to amount to anything.

yup. meanwhile, temps for next week through April are long term discussion and should be here :) 

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