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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You won't have to wait long.   Weather Will will be posting the worst  and most useless member of the Euro ensembles in about 3 hours. 

I know. And even though it was obvious I was trolling and never want to see it posted here again, it will surely appear.

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28 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I feel bad for the Boulder weenies.  12z GFS took away 20” of snow.  
 

Oh it isn't done yet.

And wait until the poor VA weenies see their GFS snow for next week dwindle to next to nothing over the next few runs. I am sure they know better.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

I think we need to watch this follow up energy in Utal for day 9 ish period.  A western ridge develops behind it with possible lower heights not  too far north.  A good track with cold enough air nearby could surprise.  I'm curious to see where guidance goes on this period once inside 5 or 6 days.

Eps 144 

That's the one I am hoping has a shot.  Couple things to like with the setup as progged so far out.  And I'll be at Deep Creek Lake at that time, where March snow isn't uncommon.

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GEFS Trending...

1615950000-RRCSH5WO1dU.png

Means are generally warmer with more ridging out in front of the closed low in the central US, and the press from the NA vortex is weaker as it is further east, more notably on the EPS. Hard to win with this setup esp in mid March, as relaxation in the confluence might allow any wave propagating eastward to not be completely shredded, but it will be warmer and the precip will probably still be on the light side. EPS has an inch or less of snow fwiw.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Saying caved with several days left is silly . And it actually still shows some snow . Still Euro op,  several ensembles of Eps and some Gefs with light to moderate accumulations.  It's only Thursday morning and timing is averaging around Tuesday morning for any frozen potential.  

:popcorn:

Crap rates,  today’s fireball and March sun angle....what could possibly go wrong.  If only we were Denver!  Happy to have experienced what is about to happen to them.  My favorite was a late March Blizzard in 92, 80 at noon, cold front came through around 5 with tornado warnings, cranking snow and Thunder snow by 11.  By 11 the next morning sun was out with about 25 inches on the ground.  That was an epic 24 hour period.  

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21 hours ago, Amped said:

Euro shreds the crap out of the ULL.   Nice looking surface high though.

Update both GFS's have a 4/6/82 like setup for NY/NE  day 8. Hopefully the CF can get further south, but we rarely have any luck with that.

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3 hours ago, GATECH said:

Crap rates,  today’s fireball and March sun angle....what could possibly go wrong.  If only we were Denver!  Happy to have experienced what is about to happen to them.  My favorite was a late March Blizzard in 92, 80 at noon, cold front came through around 5 with tornado warnings, cranking snow and Thunder snow by 11.  By 11 the next morning sun was out with about 25 inches on the ground.  That was an epic 24 hour period.  

Snippet from the Denver AFD this morning.. sounds fun:

The storm total snowfall forecasts were a mix of the global ensembles with lower weight placed on the GEFS. Amounts in the Denver metro are in the 15-25 inch range with Boulder and Fort Collins in the 20-30 inch range. The foothills will see the highest amounts with 2 to 4 feet likely. Given a more southerly track of this system, it would not surprise me to see a location or two in the northern foothills reach 5 feet. The area of highest uncertainty with regards to impacts will be the eastern plains. Amounts could be below Winter Storm Warning criteria there if the warmer solutions pan out. Or those areas could see close to a foot of snow with high impacts. There is high confidence in the impacts for the urban corridor and foothills with nearly impossible travel conditions Saturday night and Sunday. The Winter Storm Watch was kept due to the uncertainty with snowfall amounts with this storm especially farther east.

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1 hour ago, Amped said:

Update both GFS's have a 4/6/82 like setup for NY/NE  day 8. Hopefully the CF can get further south, but we rarely have any luck with that.

That ULL in the NW US interacting with the big Denver system seems to enhance the amount of cold air on tap behind that storm, given that the two pieces of energy are interacting/phasing now (or at least trending to doing that sooner). Coupled with the east based NAO that is showing up on some guidance during that time, it should def be watched for the interior areas. Checking old snowfall records I had no clue that areas near mt PSU got ~6-8" on March 30, 2014. Nuts!

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Love Mt Holly. Their updated AFD is perfect, but I had to laugh that they made no mention of the shift in the forecast from possible early week snow(albeit totally insignificant and they never were impressed with the potential).

Monday and Tuesday will feature cooler than normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions Monday and a chance for rain on Tuesday. An approaching low/front will contribute to the added clouds and rains for Tuesday. There are some timing differences amongst the models, so keeping the chc pops seems to make sense for now. Wednesday/Thursday will have the unsettled conditions continuing since an upper low/trough will be approaching from the Midwest. Many of the models are making a stronger system compared to the early week system. It`s not out of the question that some heavier rains may occur with it. Temperatures for the middle of the week will return to more normal readings with highs mostly in the upper 40s/low 50s.

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If nothing else it looks like the dry period may end by late next week. Yet another pretty interesting h5 look at range, and EPS implies a nice storm, but looks mostly wet for now. GEFS and GEPS are a bit colder, and also hinting at some precip, but more disorganized than the EPS. 

1616133600-TbUFHsZ9UZU.png

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