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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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Not much to speak of on the Euro other than the back door front friday pushes a bit faster than some other models so therefore friday and saturday arent great days. Otherwise heights push north ahead of the next storm and it drives way up into the upper plains anyway so all we get is a frontal passage anyhow. 

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22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

First chance of spring thunderstorms on the long range GFS this run. 

I put some grass seed down yesterday. Now that the cold is exiting, I will start watering that area. With the increasing sun angle and soil warming up, It might germinate in the next 10 days. Can't have a tropical deluge washing it away lol.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Objectively there was never a path to victory.

Dunno...I never thought it was likely and still don’t but I also still wouldn’t be shocked if the area saw another snow either. Honestly I feel people are letting their disappointment and desire to be done with winter to cloud their judgement. We know it can snow in late March. And yes even on the coastal plain.  It’s pretty rare. Like a 5-10% probability (of something more then just mood flakes) in any year type thing. But that’s not “no way” like people keep saying. And the fact the winter was a disappointment until now also doesn’t have that much correlation. Some years with late snow were pretty dismal before that also. I kinda feel like this is more people’s desire to have warm weather and not suffer one more disappointment. 

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56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dunno...I never thought it was likely and still don’t but I also still wouldn’t be shocked if the area saw another snow either. Honestly I feel people are letting their disappointment and desire to be done with winter to cloud their judgement. We know it can snow in late March. And yes even on the coastal plain.  It’s pretty rare. Like a 5-10% probability (of something more then just mood flakes) in any year type thing. But that’s not “no way” like people keep saying. And the fact the winter was a disappointment until now also doesn’t have that much correlation. Some years with late snow were pretty dismal before that also. I kinda feel like this is more people’s desire to have warm weather and not suffer one more disappointment. 

I am referring to the Monday timeframe. See my post this morning based on the EPS/GEFS from 0z. Either way it would be tough to pull off, and an "in between" scenario has never seemed very likely. 

Yes in general it can snow in March anywhere in our region and even down into NC. We have seen it a lot in recent years. It still might, but I don't like the odds for the Sun-Tuesday timeframe at this juncture. I really don't like the h5 look much going forward either, so I am pretty pessimistic about seeing a widespread 4"+ event anywhere other than the elevated western areas of our region.

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

I am referring to the Monday timeframe. See my post this morning based on the EPS/GEFS from 0z. Either way it would be tough to pull off, and an "in between" scenario has never seemed very likely. 

Yes in general it can snow in March anywhere in our region and even down into NC. We have seen it a lot in recent years. It still might, but I don't like the odds for the Sun-Tuesday timeframe at this juncture. I really don't like the h5 look much going forward either, so I am pretty pessimistic about seeing a widespread 4"+ event anywhere other than the elevated western areas of our region.

I get ya. I think Ji was being more universal in his post though. 

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@CAPE also I’ve moved on. I had a health issue and got a family function coming up and besides that I’m totally swamped at work now.  So I’d love another snow but if we don’t get another flake I won’t blink. But I find the “it’s over” posts amusing. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. I don’t ever assume anything that has happened multiple times won’t happen again. 

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I get ya. I think Ji was being more universal in his post though. 

He was specifically bemoaning the 'degradation' - as he sees it- of the early week storm potential.

His disaster/venting posts always have an element of universality.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukie at 144 looks promising 

 

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000 (4).gif

UKMET and GFS have similar snow amounts in CO despite the UKMET being 18 hrs slower.

I don't remember any  major Front Range snowstorms that were also big east coast snowstorms.   

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