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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The storm of all storms here in Philly. From 2-3' forecasts 24 hrs out to 1" total. And people whine about 8" becoming 4" being a bust? 

It is interesting to look back on the large magnitude busts that were possible not that long ago. The modeling wasn't quite good enough back then in setups with subtle/complex interactions and timing of phases. As I recall there was a strong NS vortex rotating down and phasing with a southern stream wave, and the guidance had it occurring earlier- pretty much perfectly timed for the MA. In the end the southern wave wasn't captured until later, so it all came together further NE. We had the surprise big snowstorm in Jan the winter before that where guidance all had it staying south until within 24 hours. Huge forecast busts like those are much less likely to happen today.

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Still looking pretty interesting on the means beginning around the 15th, with ridging in the EPO/WPO domains, displaced TPV lobes, and with a neutral/negative PNA it looks like some southern waves ejecting eastward. Late, but maybe..

Probably the NW crew should be turned on at the thought of padding their already impressive snow totals.

 

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Still looking pretty interesting on the means beginning around the 15th, with ridging in the EPO/WPO domains, displaced TPV lobes, and with a neutral/negative PNA it looks like some southern waves ejecting eastward. Late, but maybe..

Probably the NW crew should be turned on at the thought of padding their already impressive snow totals.

 

We know how this will end for the cities/low lands.  Miserable 42 degree drizzle when our average high is over 60 by the end of the month.  Meanwhile PSU will tell us how his mountain got 10” but “just down the street” only managed an inch of slush.  

I hope that look breaks down.

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9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

We know how this will end for the cities/low lands.  Miserable 42 degree drizzle when our average high is over 60 by the end of the month.  Meanwhile PSU will tell us how his mountain got 10” but “just down the street” only managed an inch of slush.  

I hope that look breaks down.

Hey, watch it now. I'm that guy "just down the street". :lol:

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

You are serious, aren’t you?

I am watching the EPS....it was never bullish about this last week of cold.  It is getting late, but weird things can happen.  Also one of the pro Mets called it over in the DMV,  so now I really think we have a chance...

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