StormchaserChuck! Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 It's going to be historic -PNA March. April of 5 matching analogs. fwiw the Winter after is -NAO (these are La Nina -PNA March's the year before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 28 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: It's going to be historic -PNA March. April of 5 matching analogs. fwiw the Winter after is -NAO (these are La Nina -PNA March's the year before) What do you mean by historic -pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: What do you mean by historic -pna This is 384hr right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: This is 384hr right now Gotcha thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 8 hours ago, CAPE said: https://www.inquirer.com/news/john-bolaris-storm-forecast-bust-snow-march-2001-20210304.html The storm of all storms here in Philly. From 2-3' forecasts 24 hrs out to 1" total. And people whine about 8" becoming 4" being a bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 You guys have been posting those snowmaps since 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The storm of all storms here in Philly. From 2-3' forecasts 24 hrs out to 1" total. And people whine about 8" becoming 4" being a bust? It is interesting to look back on the large magnitude busts that were possible not that long ago. The modeling wasn't quite good enough back then in setups with subtle/complex interactions and timing of phases. As I recall there was a strong NS vortex rotating down and phasing with a southern stream wave, and the guidance had it occurring earlier- pretty much perfectly timed for the MA. In the end the southern wave wasn't captured until later, so it all came together further NE. We had the surprise big snowstorm in Jan the winter before that where guidance all had it staying south until within 24 hours. Huge forecast busts like those are much less likely to happen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Still looking pretty interesting on the means beginning around the 15th, with ridging in the EPO/WPO domains, displaced TPV lobes, and with a neutral/negative PNA it looks like some southern waves ejecting eastward. Late, but maybe.. Probably the NW crew should be turned on at the thought of padding their already impressive snow totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 WB 0Z EPS has some big hits for everyone, things may get interesting after next weekend.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Nothing like 360 hour snow maps. Everyone take a gander and get your expectations calibrated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Lol Lol what lol. This is a winter default map for 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Lol Lol what lol. This is a winter default map for 2 weeks Yes WINTER default and every other post here has been repeating “spring” and “it’s over” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EPS has some big hits for everyone, things may get interesting after next weekend.... You are serious, aren’t you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You are serious, aren’t you? I can't wait for the next posting of the Control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Still looking pretty interesting on the means beginning around the 15th, with ridging in the EPO/WPO domains, displaced TPV lobes, and with a neutral/negative PNA it looks like some southern waves ejecting eastward. Late, but maybe.. Probably the NW crew should be turned on at the thought of padding their already impressive snow totals. We know how this will end for the cities/low lands. Miserable 42 degree drizzle when our average high is over 60 by the end of the month. Meanwhile PSU will tell us how his mountain got 10” but “just down the street” only managed an inch of slush. I hope that look breaks down. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: We know how this will end for the cities/low lands. Miserable 42 degree drizzle when our average high is over 60 by the end of the month. Meanwhile PSU will tell us how his mountain got 10” but “just down the street” only managed an inch of slush. I hope that look breaks down. Hey, watch it now. I'm that guy "just down the street". . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: You are serious, aren’t you? I am watching the EPS....it was never bullish about this last week of cold. It is getting late, but weird things can happen. Also one of the pro Mets called it over in the DMV, so now I really think we have a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Hey, watch it now. I'm that guy "just down the street". . You valley folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 31 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Hey, watch it now. I'm that guy "just down the street". . He’s exaggerating. You’ll get at least 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like tracking ramping up by mid week for possible frozen chances starting early next week Edit. Gfs with some mixed stuff Sunday night That 1036 high is in a great location 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 If there is a deterministic run that supports EPS in the long range that will look nice but they have stunk outside a few days so I give them little credence anymore. They just end up bringing false hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like tracking ramping up by mid week for possible frozen chances starting early next week Edit. Gfs with some mixed stuff Sunday night Nice little winter event verbatim. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Winters not over, we need to get fringed one more time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Yes WINTER default and every other post here has been repeating “spring” and “it’s over” What is Mt PSU at now? I am rooting for it to hit 60". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 WB 12Z GEFS thru Day 14. (All 7-14 day period.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 In some alternate reality P09 will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 20 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: In some alternate reality P09 will happen In actual reality p11 is a lock. But fear not. These 384 hour maps are like throwing darts. In the golden days, posting that shit would get you roundly mocked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 WB 12Z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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