thunderbolt Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I want it to get warm. It's kind of warm today. I can't really feel -NAO anymore though.. May I ask what do you mean by feeling negative NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 22 minutes ago, snowfan said: What does a -NAO feel like? It's kind of windy, and deep-gray clouds lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2021 Author Share Posted March 4, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I speak German Hercules? More like..... Anyway, your area is in the zone until at least early April. DC will be able to cook eggs on the sidewalk by then. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would be happy with DCA compared to here in Raleigh. Im at 1.6" STD lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 It all starts with a strong nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Eh, 10 year averages are a pretty sketchy way to determine climate normals. So are 30 year averages but I guess it’s what ever definition you want to use. I know where I grew up the 80’s and up until the winter of 92-93 the winters were very mild and snowless. Yeah there was a year or two that was decent but I remember us talking then about why winters had changed so much. Since that time the winters there have been much snowier and more consistent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It all starts with a strong nino I do believe in that correlation. The last several super ninos (1973/1983/1998/2016) were all followed by multiple year hostile pacific patterns. But at the same time let’s not pretend the larger trend isn’t there either. The 99-02 period was worse then the comparable post nino 80s and 70s periods and the 17-21 period now was worst of all. And the frequency of sub 10” winters is increasing even independent of those post nino periods. So like I’ve said our recent problems are a combo of both. Both a shorter term hostile period coinciding with the continued degradation of our larger scale snow climo. There will still be peaks and wins but imo the valleys are going to be lower and more frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Eh, 10 year averages are a pretty sketchy way to determine climate normals. So are 30 year averages but I guess it’s what ever definition you want to use. I know where I grew up the 80’s and up until the winter of 92-93 the winters were very mild and snowless. Yeah there was a year or two that was decent but I remember us talking then about why winters had changed so much. Since that time the winters there have been much snowier and more consistent. I’ll have to confirm but I think the 13.8 is the new 30 year. If it’s 10 I agree that’s sketchy. I think 30 is necessary since we know the climate is changing. Anything longer will skew cold/snowy compared to the current situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 ^ another fun stat for the past 5 years is that Richmond has surpassed DCA for snowfall 4 out of 5 times. I believe they might've done the same in 10-11, 11-12, and even 12-13 too (I can't find the page to back that up but that's what I remember seeing). So that's seven out of the past eleven years where Richmond has outmatched DCA in snowfall. Some of that has to be attributed to bad luck, but the rest? I'm not too sure. So in short, we're a glorified Richmond climate with the caveat that we luck our way into a 20" snowfall every decade or so. Nice lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 winter is back. Jb wins 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’ll have to confirm but I think the 13.8 is the new 30 year. If it’s 10 I agree that’s sketchy. I think 30 is necessary since we know the climate is changing. Anything longer will skew cold/snowy compared to the current situation. I'd have to think that's a 30 year mean, the same type they always update at the end of each decade (e.g., 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020, ...). But would be nice to confirm that. The other thing is they mention the average from a century ago, which I don't necessarily think is a very fair comparison; the measuring location I believe had been somewhere in northwest DC (near Georgetown??) for some time before the current DCA location. Though wouldn't be surprised if the average in northwest DC has dropped too. And holy cow, it just hit me that the early 1990s are now three decades ago!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ji said: winter is back. Jb wins The "Daylight Savings Day" storm??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 59 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: The "Daylight Savings Day" storm??? Except there’s no storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: ^ another fun stat for the past 5 years is that Richmond has surpassed DCA for snowfall 4 out of 5 times. I believe they might've done the same in 10-11, 11-12, and even 12-13 too (I can't find the page to back that up but that's what I remember seeing). So that's seven out of the past eleven years where Richmond has outmatched DCA in snowfall. Some of that has to be attributed to bad luck, but the rest? I'm not too sure. So in short, we're a glorified Richmond climate with the caveat that we luck our way into a 20" snowfall every decade or so. Nice lol. Part of this is due to bad luck; the other part is that DCA doesn’t know how to measure snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Goes to show how variable an average is with a relatively small data set. This tells me that the last several years are closer to what the average actually is over climatological times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 5 hours ago, Avdave said: I would be happy with DCA compared to here in Raleigh. Im at 1.6" STD lol. Dude. You are in Raleigh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snoworbust Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Anyone know BWI's 1991-2020 snowfall average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs HH with a day 9/10 threat then another one day 12 Yea man! Let's do this! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Except there’s no storm Hahaha, true! The extra hour of daylight took it away from us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Dude. You are in Raleigh. No shit I know that. This isnt Georgia though, We average 6-7" here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, Avdave said: No shit I know that. This isnt Georgia though, We average 6-7" here Yeah but I think our median is much lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Yeah but I think our median is much lower. Probably but I dont know it off the top of my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Avdave said: Probably but I dont know it off the top of my head Its actually hard to find median data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Except there’s no storm The cold air will make its own storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 It's cold out. Too bad that storm to our south was a bit surpressed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Avdave said: Probably but I dont know it off the top of my head Here's what I found for Raleigh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 And Baltimore for comparison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Please tell the 00z EURO to take the h5 map at Day 10 and return to sender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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