March Long Range Discussion

[paulythegun]

6 out of 30 have decent snow. All centered around day 14-16. Therefore, there is a 20% chance of a massive snowstorm in 15 days. Thank you

[Weather Will]

Dont give up hope yet, not probable but possible...

Largest March DC snow: produced a foot of snow in the city March 27 to 28, 1891.

The Palm Sunday snowstorm of 1942 brought the region’s second-largest March snowfall on record. On March 29 of that year, 11.5 inches was measured at Reagan National. The storm produced over 2 feet of snow in parts of Maryland and northwestern Virginia. That snowstorm also ranks as Baltimore’s seventh-largest storm on record; 22 inches was measured.    Source WTOP.

[psuhoffman]

57 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Dont give up hope yet, not probable but possible...

Largest March DC snow: produced a foot of snow in the city March 27 to 28, 1891.

The Palm Sunday snowstorm of 1942 brought the region’s second-largest March snowfall on record. On March 29 of that year, 11.5 inches was measured at Reagan National. The storm produced over 2 feet of snow in parts of Maryland and northwestern Virginia. That snowstorm also ranks as Baltimore’s seventh-largest storm on record; 22 inches was measured.    Source WTOP.

Palm Sunday 1942 was the largest storm on record in Westminster. 

[clskinsfan]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Palm Sunday 1942 was the largest storm on record in Westminster. 

It was 79 degrees a couple of days before that storm according to records as well. March 29th is my birthday. Westminster reported 22 inches in 24 hours even after those high temps going in.  I am all for another round. 

[WVclimo]

4 hours ago, toolsheds said:

:-)  We were talking about it on a work call this morning and a guy I work with told me that it was -231 or something like that.  Not sure how you measure that especially since a lot of really old equipment might not be able to stand up to those conditions. I'll ask him where he got that nugget from.  He kind of is a CLiff Claven, but i agree that this is a little fishy. 

Mt. Washington recorded a 231 mph gust, the highest wind speed recorded in the US and the world to that point, on April 12, 1934.  Still holds the US record, but an island site off of western Australia recorded 253 in a tropical cyclone.

Don’t know what their lowest wind chill is though.

[nj2va]

The kind of map I want to see this time of year...

[snowfan]

On January 16, 2004 mt Washington was -41.8 w winds in the 80s. The recorded wind chill was -102.6.  McGrath, Alaska also previously recorded a -100 wind chill.

[Ji]

The kind of map I want to see this time of year...

Why cheer for warm during a winter month

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

The kind of map I want to see this time of year...

To each their own - but keep the warmth at bay for now. I'd like to keep my A/C on the sidelines for as long as possible. Before you know it it'll be 95 degrees with a 70+ dewpoint. Now if it stays 65-70 and not humid - I'm all for it. Only time heat is acceptable to me is if it comes with interesting weather. 

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

To each their own - but keep the warmth at bay for now. I'd like to keep my A/C on the sidelines for as long as possible. Before you know it it'll be 95 degrees with a 70+ dewpoint. Now if it stays 65-70 and not humid - I'm all for it. Only time heat is acceptable to me is if it comes with interesting weather. 

Those are 7-8 degree anomalies. So its probably 60-65 degrees. You wont be needing your AC for that. 

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

The kind of map I want to see this time of year...
 

Why cheer for warm during a winter month

To me, March is spring especially in the city/close in burbs.  I realize NW/mountains is a different story.

44 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

To each their own - but keep the warmth at bay for now. I'd like to keep my A/C on the sidelines for as long as possible. Before you know it it'll be 95 degrees with a 70+ dewpoint. Now if it stays 65-70 and not humid - I'm all for it. Only time heat is acceptable to me is if it comes with interesting weather. 

While I don’t want 100 degrees right now, I do want normal/slightly above and sunny.  I’ll pass on cloudy/drizzle and low 40s like a March “winter storm” would bring to DC.  This anomaly map would be 60/low 60s...sounds glorious.

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, snowfan said:

On January 16, 2004 mt Washington was -41.8 w winds in the 80s. The recorded wind chill was -102.6.  McGrath, Alaska also previously recorded a -100 wind chill.

Not wind chill, but just bone-numbing cold.

https://news.agu.org/press-release/coldest-place-on-earth-is-colder-than-scientists-thought/

[psuhoffman]

17 hours ago, CAPE said:

I will await Psu's obligatory dissertation style reply explaining how ENSO state really doesn't have much influence on our weather outcomes anymore. 

Pac yes, enso imo not as much anymore because I’m not convinced the pac pattern is driven by enso. It’s been identical for 5 years through 2 ninos, 2 Nina’s, and a neutral year. Hard to argue that is enso driven!  Is the pac a problem though regardless of what’s causing it, most definitely yes. 
 

Besides we can’t simply blame the Nina for ruining the -NAO. Nina history says that’s not accurate.  Nina -NAO months in Jan Feb and March have actually been snowier then all other enso state -NAO months.  Problem is a -NAO is rare in a Nina. This year was more the exception then the rule both in having a -NAO Nina and completely wasting it. 
 

BTW side note: the one exception is obviously moderate to strong Nina’s with a -NAO. That’s the gold standard.  Those are when we get crushed with snow. Yes a -NAO still correlated to more snow in other states but if you take weak Nina’s, enso neutral, and Nina’s while a -NAO does favor more snow then normal the numbers aren’t crazy big.  And Nina’s actually has better -NAO avg snowfall then neutrals and weak ninos. Small sample size though since there aren’t that many -NAO Nina months. 

[Cobalt]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Pac yes, enso imo not as much anymore because I’m not convinced the pac pattern is driven by enso. It’s been identical for 5 years through 2 ninos, 2 Nina’s, and a neutral year. Hard to argue that is enso driven!  Is the pac a problem though regardless of what’s causing it, most definitely yes. 
 

 

I remember Chuck posted a series of maps for winters following the 97-98 (and 72-73 I think?) Nino(s). We sort of pushed it aside because Chuck, but perhaps it could be argued that the wake of a Super Nino causes long term effects for our PAC wrt hostility? I need to find where he posted it, but they looked pretty similar to what we've been dealing with.  

[Deck Pic]

6 hours ago, Scraff said:

Touting 1956 and 1984 analogs. Mid March to April—how did DC do those years? I’m guessing.... 

As far as March, both months were meh in immediate DC metro but solid in the areas you'd expect in late winter.  1956 had that massive noreaster and 40N generally got dumped on. 1984 had two good heavy snow events on the 8th and 29th.  I think both had thundersnow. 3/8 definitely did.  I remember as a kid.

[Deck Pic]

This was fun...I think IAD got 5" in 3-4 hours...

IAD,1984-03-08 22:16,KIAD 082216Z 34015G23KT 1/4SM +TSSNPL OVC002 A2987 RMK R01RVR06V18 TB12 OVHD-S MOVG E LTGICCG SLPNO

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Pac yes, enso imo not as much anymore because I’m not convinced the pac pattern is driven by enso. It’s been identical for 5 years through 2 ninos, 2 Nina’s, and a neutral year. Hard to argue that is enso driven!  Is the pac a problem though regardless of what’s causing it, most definitely yes. 
 

Besides we can’t simply blame the Nina for ruining the -NAO. Nina history says that’s not accurate.  Nina -NAO months in Jan Feb and March have actually been snowier then all other enso state -NAO months.  Problem is a -NAO is rare in a Nina. This year was more the exception then the rule both in having a -NAO Nina and completely wasting it. 
 

BTW side note: the one exception is obviously moderate to strong Nina’s with a -NAO. That’s the gold standard.  Those are when we get crushed with snow. Yes a -NAO still correlated to more snow in other states but if you take weak Nina’s, enso neutral, and Nina’s while a -NAO does favor more snow then normal the numbers aren’t crazy big.  And Nina’s actually has better -NAO avg snowfall then neutrals and weak ninos. Small sample size though since there aren’t that many -NAO Nina months. 

I think you meant to say Nino here. I don't think we have enough of a sample size to say changes in Ocean temps/Pac jet has completely overwhelmed the characteristic impacts ENSO state has on our weather patterns. That is arguable at this juncture. 2015-2016 isn't that long ago and the outcome of that winter was very much on par with a strong Nino- warm overall but one 2-week colder period with some blocking produced a KU. The results of winter of 2017-18 was in alignment with the character of a Nina for the MA. The last few years the 'expected' ENSO-atmospheric coupling has been muted/overwhelmed by other factors like the MJO. One of those years, 2018-19 I think, the Nino got going late and ended up being diffuse/undefined, and the atmospheric response was minimal. This sort of result may or may not be an indication of things to come. We cant know yet.

[CAPE]

No sign of precip for at least another week. Mostly sunny every day. Glorious.

Next chance of rain looks to be late next week with a low tracking well NW and a front moving through.

[Kmlwx]

7 hours ago, nj2va said:

To me, March is spring especially in the city/close in burbs.  I realize NW/mountains is a different story.

While I don’t want 100 degrees right now, I do want normal/slightly above and sunny.  I’ll pass on cloudy/drizzle and low 40s like a March “winter storm” would bring to DC.  This anomaly map would be 60/low 60s...sounds glorious.

March has been a bona fide winter storm month in recent years. And not even like the bold section - like actual accumulation events. If we can luck our way into that - I'd take a few inches of snow (even if it melts quickly) over a 70 degree day. 

[Ji]

This was fun...I think IAD got 5" in 3-4 hours...

IAD,1984-03-08 22:16,KIAD 082216Z 34015G23KT 1/4SM +TSSNPL OVC002 A2987 RMK R01RVR06V18 TB12 OVHD-S MOVG E LTGICCG SLPNO

I remember that

[m045400]

10 hours ago, snowfan said:

On January 16, 2004 mt Washington was -41.8 w winds in the 80s. The recorded wind chill was -102.6.  McGrath, Alaska also previously recorded a -100 wind chill.

The coldest i have ever been was in Rangely, ME during SERE School (survival, evasion, resistance and escape).  It was -20 air temp and a -70 wind chill.  Nothing like evading capture with 6' of snow and snowshoes just to get captured, tortured and freeze all in the name of training.  smh.  

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

March has been a bona fide winter storm month in recent years. And not even like the bold section - like actual accumulation events. If we can luck our way into that - I'd take a few inches of snow (even if it melts quickly) over a 70 degree day. 

To each their own and all, but come on...

[Kmlwx]

Just now, mattie g said:

To each their own and all, but come on...

In March. Not in April or other months of course. Bring on the 70s and sun in April without question. 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

I think you meant to say Nino here. I don't think we have enough of a sample size to say changes in Ocean temps/Pac jet has completely overwhelmed the characteristic impacts ENSO state has on our weather patterns. That is arguable at this juncture. 2015-2016 isn't that long ago and the outcome of that winter was very much on par with a strong Nino- warm overall but one 2-week colder period with some blocking produced a KU. The results of winter of 2017-18 was in alignment with the character of a Nina for the MA. The last few years the 'expected' ENSO-atmospheric coupling has been muted/overwhelmed by other factors like the MJO. One of those years, 2018-19 I think, the Nino got going late and ended up being diffuse/undefined, and the atmospheric response was minimal. This sort of result may or may not be an indication of things to come. We cant know yet.

I did mean nino. I’m not saying enso effects are permanently muted. I’m just saying when the current pac pattern has persisted for 5 years through varying enso states it’s obviously not simply enso causing it. 

[nj2va]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

March has been a bona fide winter storm month in recent years. And not even like the bold section - like actual accumulation events. If we can luck our way into that - I'd take a few inches of snow (even if it melts quickly) over a 70 degree day. 

Yeah, I realize we've had legit March snows over the last 10 years in DC, but hard to argue with seasonal trends this winter.  I'd wager if the area sees a winter storm in March, it'd be 37 degree rain in DC.  I'll pass on that for spring weather.

[Kmlwx]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, I realize we've had legit March snows over the last 10 years in DC, but hard to argue with seasonal trends this winter.  I'd wager if the area sees a winter storm in March, it'd be 37 degree rain in DC.  I'll pass on that for spring weather.

Yeah 37 and rain sounds miserable. Well so does 33 and rain  - if we can somehow luck our way into a few inches before we sprint into spring, I'm all for it. Didn't mean to come across as argumentative before (if I did). I'm mostly on the same train as you - but I just love pushing back any sustained heat as long as we can. Summer is long enough here! 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS control says the week of the 15th is worth keeping an eye on....until then enjoy the dry weather.

[paulythegun]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Pac yes, enso imo not as much anymore because I’m not convinced the pac pattern is driven by enso. It’s been identical for 5 years through 2 ninos, 2 Nina’s, and a neutral year. Hard to argue that is enso driven!  Is the pac a problem though regardless of what’s causing it, most definitely yes. 
 

Besides we can’t simply blame the Nina for ruining the -NAO. Nina history says that’s not accurate.  Nina -NAO months in Jan Feb and March have actually been snowier then all other enso state -NAO months.  Problem is a -NAO is rare in a Nina. This year was more the exception then the rule both in having a -NAO Nina and completely wasting it. 
 

BTW side note: the one exception is obviously moderate to strong Nina’s with a -NAO. That’s the gold standard.  Those are when we get crushed with snow. Yes a -NAO still correlated to more snow in other states but if you take weak Nina’s, enso neutral, and Nina’s while a -NAO does favor more snow then normal the numbers aren’t crazy big.  And Nina’s actually has better -NAO avg snowfall then neutrals and weak ninos. Small sample size though since there aren’t that many -NAO Nina months. 

This made me chuckle:

 

[clskinsfan]

Nobody mentioned the 6Z GFS. But it is onboard for a mid month frozen event. 

[Heisy]

Cmc was interesting at the end of the run. Strong cold front out east with decent energy out west, but idk. I feel like there’s a chance mid month on but we’ll see