Baltimorewx Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 6 hours ago, CAPE said: Sure it can snow in early April. Even had a couple inches here years ago. This doesn't look like the synoptic setup to do it though. Basically it would be an anafrontal deal. That will be cold chasing rain most of the time, and esp in Spring. Looks pretty good for interior NE, with a coastal low forming up that way. Yes. We see the models try to do this all the time in the long range when in reality 90% of the time things dry out before it gets cold enough. This will be no different. Looks like the modeling is trending and correcting to this today so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 How does week of 4/5 look for obx/no. Debating if should book place for spring break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 33 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Canadian is ridiculous for Friday . Has highs low 30s going into the teens overnight Hopefully that kills off some bugs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Not really LR anymore, but the mid to late week storm looks like it may be an impressive rain producer for our region. Latest AFD from Mount Holly- As the low approaches the CWA Wednesday afternoon and evening, considerable large-scale lift will be in place via right- entrance region upper divergence from a favorably positioned 250-mb jet streak, strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the advancing, more neutrally-tilted trough, and substantial warm/moist advection on the northern periphery of a poleward-advancing warm sector. Models indicate widespread precipitation developing in this regime, convectively enhanced near the approaching front and in vicinity of the intensifying surface low. Model soundings do indicate some instability in the pre-frontal warm sector, especially if the surface low tracks farther west. Have added thunder to the forecast for much of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall is quite possible with this setup, especially since upper-level flow will become oriented mostly parallel to the approaching front (thanks in large part to the high- amplitude ridging downstream). QPF of 1-2+ inches is depicted with the CMC/ECMWF (50+ percent less in the GFS/ICON). Given the potential convective enhancement of the precipitation and a couple of antecedent soaking rain events, this seems like a setup that favors some flooding potential. Will monitor this closely as the event approaches. In addition, very strong cold advection will occur on the upstream side of the cold front, with temperatures dropping 10-20 degrees in a matter of a few hours after frontal passage. The cold conveyor belt of the intensifying surface low, along with favorable frontogenetical forcing/deformation, may produce a band of precipitation on the west/northwest side of the low that lingers for several hours. Thermal profiles would favor a switchover to snow for the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, perhaps resulting in some accumulations Thursday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 On 3/26/2021 at 5:21 PM, clskinsfan said: Nice map. You can see why the Eastern shore has month head start on us out here to their growing season. Nearly a 30 degree temperature range in soil temperature across Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 This -NAO is pretty exciting into early/mid April. I bet I'll get snow in that time. It's one of the rarities that's been happening a lot. One year it snowed on May 2nd here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 We really tore that PNA this year Analogs warm May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 WB 18Z NAM....snow tv on Th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 60s and 70s this weekend 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 4 hours ago, H2O said: 60s and 70s this weekend maybe 50s Saturday and near 70 Sunday? 850 temps still look pretty low on Saturday...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, high risk said: maybe 50s Saturday and near 70 Sunday? 850 temps still look pretty low on Saturday...... Yeah, last couple runs have trended a little cooler for sunday as well...Wont complain as long as its 60 and sunny, but 70 might be a stretch except for southern zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 30 minutes ago, high risk said: maybe 50s Saturday and near 70 Sunday? 850 temps still look pretty low on Saturday...... maybe. not exactly warm but not cold enough to keep any snow around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 On 3/30/2021 at 6:10 AM, H2O said: 60s and 70s this weekend Bass beware...my wife is coming for you this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 31, 2021 Author Share Posted March 31, 2021 On 3/26/2021 at 2:47 PM, losetoa6 said: 2M afternoon temps Lookin good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Lookin good Only 15 - 20 degrees off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 All of the models this year displayed a cold bias at range. Days 4-10 or so. Now I don’t know dick about computer programming, but you’d think a consistent bias could be programmed out even if it was as simple as add 10 degrees day 8-10, 7 days 5-7 and so on. And on a side note, as far as practical weather, I thought the ICON did a pretty fair job this year. It’s forecasts are very stable from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: All of the models this year displayed a cold bias at range. Days 4-10 or so. Now I don’t know dick about computer programming, but you’d think a consistent bias could be programmed out even if it was as simple as add 10 degrees day 8-10, 7 days 5-7 and so on. And on a side note, as far as practical weather, I thought the ICON did a pretty fair job this year. It’s forecasts are very stable from run to run. It scored a fair bit too, such as latching onto the Feb 7th storm not going OTS. It mainly sucks that it has very limited visuals, like no 850s and no mixing indications (No soundings too I think), but yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 1, 2021 Author Share Posted April 1, 2021 5 hours ago, losetoa6 said: That time stamp was 150 hours out lol. Probably about 10-12 degrees off at 6 1/2 days out. Reasonable . It's all good dude. You ,H20,Mappy,Trix on the troll spree lately Huh? I've always been a troll 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 8 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: All of the models this year displayed a cold bias at range. Days 4-10 or so. Now I don’t know dick about computer programming, but you’d think a consistent bias could be programmed out even if it was as simple as add 10 degrees day 8-10, 7 days 5-7 and so on. And on a side note, as far as practical weather, I thought the ICON did a pretty fair job this year. It’s forecasts are very stable from run to run. I thought the same about the ICON. It is almost boring with its lack of being prone to advertising extremes- a good thing at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Next Winter should be Weak to Moderate El Nino so... QBO should be favorable. I did the neg correlation this Winter (AO) for the +anomaly 2 Winter's before, and I think the mathematic is 3/4 next Winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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