WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Even Short Pump gets in on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs still interested Agreed, through Day 12... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Can we get a control run up in here? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 You don’t want to see 6Z. I will post 12Z when it is out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Can we get a control run up in here? You won't have to wait long. Weather Will will be posting the worst and most useless member of the Euro ensembles in about 3 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 I wish some of you clowns had received some snow so these end of year chances aren't so painful to read about 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Yes Yoda, that was his point. But anyway...you know it's sad when GFS shows snow next week and nobody seems excited. Models have been too cold plus incorrect assessment of upper air warm layers all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I wish some of you clowns had received some snow so these end of year chances aren't so painful to read about 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You won't have to wait long. Weather Will will be posting the worst and most useless member of the Euro ensembles in about 3 hours. I know. And even though it was obvious I was trolling and never want to see it posted here again, it will surely appear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Euro shreds the crap out of the ULL. Nice looking surface high though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro shreds the crap out of the ULL. Nice looking surface high though. Yes, but it did move towards the GFS in getting precip into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 I feel bad for the Boulder weenies. 12z GFS took away 20” of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 8 hours ago, anotherman said: How are people with a job able to chase during the week? I don't get it...... I am pretty much free to do whatever I want as long as I get my work done.. but this is actually a weekend deal in Denver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I feel bad for the Boulder weenies. 12z GFS took away 20” of snow. Oh it isn't done yet. And wait until the poor VA weenies see their GFS snow for next week dwindle to next to nothing over the next few runs. I am sure they know better. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 GFS at 120 looks interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 33 minutes ago, attml said: GFS at 120 looks interesting! It’s worse than 12z. And imagine the 18z eps must not have been too spiffy either since I haven’t seen it posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: I think we need to watch this follow up energy in Utal for day 9 ish period. A western ridge develops behind it with possible lower heights not too far north. A good track with cold enough air nearby could surprise. I'm curious to see where guidance goes on this period once inside 5 or 6 days. Eps 144 That's the one I am hoping has a shot. Couple things to like with the setup as progged so far out. And I'll be at Deep Creek Lake at that time, where March snow isn't uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 GEFS Trending... Means are generally warmer with more ridging out in front of the closed low in the central US, and the press from the NA vortex is weaker as it is further east, more notably on the EPS. Hard to win with this setup esp in mid March, as relaxation in the confluence might allow any wave propagating eastward to not be completely shredded, but it will be warmer and the precip will probably still be on the light side. EPS has an inch or less of snow fwiw. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 GFS caved 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: GFS caved Start a thread LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Saying caved with several days left is silly . And it actually still shows some snow . Still Euro op, several ensembles of Eps and some Gefs with light to moderate accumulations. It's only Thursday morning and timing is averaging around Tuesday morning for any frozen potential. Crap rates, today’s fireball and March sun angle....what could possibly go wrong. If only we were Denver! Happy to have experienced what is about to happen to them. My favorite was a late March Blizzard in 92, 80 at noon, cold front came through around 5 with tornado warnings, cranking snow and Thunder snow by 11. By 11 the next morning sun was out with about 25 inches on the ground. That was an epic 24 hour period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 22 hours ago, stormtracker said: But anyway...you know it's sad when GFS shows snow next week and nobody seems excited. Even sadder that it only took 4 months to figure out why there is no need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 21 hours ago, Amped said: Euro shreds the crap out of the ULL. Nice looking surface high though. Update both GFS's have a 4/6/82 like setup for NY/NE day 8. Hopefully the CF can get further south, but we rarely have any luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 3 hours ago, GATECH said: Crap rates, today’s fireball and March sun angle....what could possibly go wrong. If only we were Denver! Happy to have experienced what is about to happen to them. My favorite was a late March Blizzard in 92, 80 at noon, cold front came through around 5 with tornado warnings, cranking snow and Thunder snow by 11. By 11 the next morning sun was out with about 25 inches on the ground. That was an epic 24 hour period. Snippet from the Denver AFD this morning.. sounds fun: The storm total snowfall forecasts were a mix of the global ensembles with lower weight placed on the GEFS. Amounts in the Denver metro are in the 15-25 inch range with Boulder and Fort Collins in the 20-30 inch range. The foothills will see the highest amounts with 2 to 4 feet likely. Given a more southerly track of this system, it would not surprise me to see a location or two in the northern foothills reach 5 feet. The area of highest uncertainty with regards to impacts will be the eastern plains. Amounts could be below Winter Storm Warning criteria there if the warmer solutions pan out. Or those areas could see close to a foot of snow with high impacts. There is high confidence in the impacts for the urban corridor and foothills with nearly impossible travel conditions Saturday night and Sunday. The Winter Storm Watch was kept due to the uncertainty with snowfall amounts with this storm especially farther east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Amped said: Update both GFS's have a 4/6/82 like setup for NY/NE day 8. Hopefully the CF can get further south, but we rarely have any luck with that. That ULL in the NW US interacting with the big Denver system seems to enhance the amount of cold air on tap behind that storm, given that the two pieces of energy are interacting/phasing now (or at least trending to doing that sooner). Coupled with the east based NAO that is showing up on some guidance during that time, it should def be watched for the interior areas. Checking old snowfall records I had no clue that areas near mt PSU got ~6-8" on March 30, 2014. Nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 Not much to speak of on euro other than chance of a mix for the far far nw zones early tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 Love Mt Holly. Their updated AFD is perfect, but I had to laugh that they made no mention of the shift in the forecast from possible early week snow(albeit totally insignificant and they never were impressed with the potential). Monday and Tuesday will feature cooler than normal temperatures with mostly dry conditions Monday and a chance for rain on Tuesday. An approaching low/front will contribute to the added clouds and rains for Tuesday. There are some timing differences amongst the models, so keeping the chc pops seems to make sense for now. Wednesday/Thursday will have the unsettled conditions continuing since an upper low/trough will be approaching from the Midwest. Many of the models are making a stronger system compared to the early week system. It`s not out of the question that some heavier rains may occur with it. Temperatures for the middle of the week will return to more normal readings with highs mostly in the upper 40s/low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 18z gfs 18z gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 If nothing else it looks like the dry period may end by late next week. Yet another pretty interesting h5 look at range, and EPS implies a nice storm, but looks mostly wet for now. GEFS and GEPS are a bit colder, and also hinting at some precip, but more disorganized than the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now