March Long Range Discussion

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Improving for day 7/8.

This isn't hour 360

12z Eps 

That's an interesting look. 

[stormtracker]

30 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Improving for day 7/8.

This isn't hour 360

12z Eps 

Now this is actually not a shit post.   Interesting. But not enough to get me off the couch.  @WinterWxLuvr tho.....

[poolz1]

Improved look from 0z for the D10-12 timeframe.  Nice ridge axis out west with a deeper trough into the miss valley. Both GEFS and EPS keying on a wave coming ashore on the west coast around D7 but handle the trough behind it differently.  EPS is slower with the PAC trough and this allows a nice PNA ridge to pop. 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS teleconnections are pretty good for the 7-14 day period. Actually, if it were not getting late, more would be interested.

 

[psuhoffman]

58 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Now this is actually not a shit post.   Interesting. But not enough to get me off the couch.  @WinterWxLuvr tho.....

Im 100% content if it’s over. Just rolling with whatever. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Im 100% content if it’s over. Just rolling with whatever. 

Well, you should be with 50+ inches of snow.

 

[Heisy]

Gotta get that follow up wave east as fast as possible. If it meanders in the southwest it’ll torch. If spacing is good and front strong enough it could snow, but need more than a few eps members and a close op gfs run 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Gotta get that follow up wave east as fast as possible. If it meanders in the southwest it’ll torch. If spacing is good and front strong enough it could snow, but need more than a few eps members and a close op gfs run 

March is typically too volatile to get a threat to lock in at super long leads. If something does come up it likely won’t show itself clearly until inside 5/6 days and even that might be pushing it. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Well, you should be with 50+ inches of snow.

 

52

[Bob Chill]

If it's really going to snow in Mar, the setup next weekend is a very believable way to do it. Also makes sense that some of the winter default teleconnections come back with a vengence one more time before spring legit takes over.

Personally, I'm 100% over winter wx and 100% ready for RV season but wx gon wx and wx don't give one F about my or anyone's feelings. If it holds together or comes into better focus later this week, I'll be back in just like everyone else including the straight up liars that say they won't 

[Chris78]

It's getting real now. There's been an @Bob Chill sighting.  It's gonna snow.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's getting real now. There's been an @Bob Chill sighting.  It's gonna snow.

Lol. We all know it's low probability and will prob vanish before any type of thread can be created... but... 12z ops/ens def grabbed my attention. I havent even been looking at models much at all since the last debacle. I only looked today because I'm doing all the heavy lifting spring yard work and wanted to see what next weekend brings wx wise. It was a bit shocking really. The way the gfs/euro show the chance is not far fetched or unthinkable. Looks exactly like how late winter can toss weenies a wiener

[Cobalt]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. We all know it's low probability and will prob vanish before any type of thread can be created... but... 12z ops/ens def grabbed my attention. I havent even been looking at models much at all since the last debacle. I only looked today because I'm doing all the heavy lifting spring yard work and wanted to see what next weekend brings wx wise. It was a bit shocking really. The way the gfs/euro show the chance is not far fetched or unthinkable. Looks exactly like how late winter can toss weenies a wiener

It was mentioned (don't remember by who) that this setup resembles how we scored late in the 2014/2015 seasons, but I'm not entirely sure I see that. Those had the waves riding on the heels of a PV lobe which acted as a suppressive mechanism (I think?), but with this setup as far as I can see it's just a stout HP that's departing as the storm makes its way over here, with a string of low pressures off of NE Canada slowing down the HP a bit (but not really acting as a bona fide 50/50 low). Still, an intriguing setup, and at the very least it's a novel tracking experience that shortens the offseason. For now we should enjoy the 70s this week I suppose 

[Amped]

18z has 2-5" for most of us.  NYC gets crushed this run with the coastal transfer.

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

It was mentioned (don't remember by who) that this setup resembles how we scored late in the 2014/2015 seasons, but I'm not entirely sure I see that. Those had the waves riding on the heels of a PV lobe which acted as a suppressive mechanism (I think?), but with this setup as far as I can see it's just a stout HP that's departing as the storm makes its way over here, with a string of low pressures off of NE Canada slowing down the HP a bit (but not really acting as a bona fide 50/50 low). Still, an intriguing setup, and at the very least it's a novel tracking experience that shortens the offseason. For now we should enjoy the 70s this week I suppose 

It's a touchy setup. Some serious downhill confluence on approach. That's a red flag because the same thing that forces the track far enough south is also a common feature that shreds storms. Weak storm + march = high prob no snow for you and me

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Now this is actually not a shit post.   Interesting. But not enough to get me off the couch.  @WinterWxLuvr tho.....

@stormtracker hasn’t been this excited in a while. Maybe now he’ll put wheels back on the bus.

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a touchy setup. Some serious downhill confluence on approach. That's a red flag because the same thing that forces the track far enough south is also a common feature that shreds storms. Weak storm + march = high prob no snow for you and me

Also would make sense given the seasonal trend. Confluence wanting to linger has only helped us out one time this winter by my count with Feb 18, but in all the other cases it's just sent our long range dream storms into the suppression shredder. Unfun. 

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

It was mentioned (don't remember by who) that this setup resembles how we scored late in the 2014/2015 seasons, but I'm not entirely sure I see that. Those had the waves riding on the heels of a PV lobe which acted as a suppressive mechanism (I think?), but with this setup as far as I can see it's just a stout HP that's departing as the storm makes its way over here, with a string of low pressures off of NE Canada slowing down the HP a bit (but not really acting as a bona fide 50/50 low). Still, an intriguing setup, and at the very least it's a novel tracking experience that shortens the offseason. For now we should enjoy the 70s this week I suppose 

Micro v macro. Your zooming in on a specific synoptic setup which wasn’t even in range when I made that observation. On the longwave pattern level there are some similarities with an elongated TPV from Siberia down into SE Canada as the driving mechanism to get cold here and suppress the storm track. The 18z op gfs adds a wrinkle with a -NAO also but thats not across the majority of guidance...yet?  

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

18z has 2-5" for most of us.  NYC gets crushed this run with the coastal transfer.

Probably the most realistic take in all honestly. Like everyone else I am ready for the torch. But if weather wants to toss us a final chance I will track most aggressively like every other weenie here. 

[Amped]

19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Probably the most realistic take in all honestly. Like everyone else I am ready for the torch. But if weather wants to toss us a final chance I will track most aggressively like every other weenie here. 

I'd rather winter end than another 2-4".  Not interested in late season snows unless we get over 6".  I doubt anything similar verifies since it's 8 days out. Day5+ has been fantasy land this year.

[BristowWx]

46 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Probably the most realistic take in all honestly. Like everyone else I am ready for the torch. But if weather wants to toss us a final chance I will track most aggressively like every other weenie here. 

Not all of us are ready for the torch.  I am ready for 1816 year without a summer.  

[Cobalt]

13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Not all of us are ready for the torch.  I am ready for 1816 year without a summer.  

For us to get that, I'd imagine that we'd have to have a year with a winter first.. 

[Ji]

gfs looks souther/colder. stronger confluence

[Ji]

bowling ball is moving too slow though

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

gfs looks souther/colder. stronger confluence

 

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

bowling ball is moving too slow though

Trended towards the euro cutter

Para also have a cutter

[CAPE]

0z EPS implies flatter wave(s) damping with eastward movement early next week, a similar outcome to one of the common themes of the winter when there has been a strong vortex near the Canadian Maritimes- too much confluence in the wake. 

GEFS digs a trough along the west coast, with more ridging in the east as the NA vortex departs quicker. Result is a more consolidated system tracking to the NW.

Pick your path to defeat, lol.

[thunderbolt]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

0z EPS implies flatter wave(s) damping with eastward movement early next week, a similar outcome to one of the common themes of the winter when there has been a strong vortex near the Canadian Maritimes- too much confluence in the wake. 

GEFS digs a trough along the west coast, with more ridging in the east as the NA vortex departs quicker. Result is a more consolidated system tracking to the NW.

Pick your path to defeat, lol.

That’s weather if it happens it happens if it doesn’t it doesn’t we move on

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

That’s weather if it happens it happens if it doesn’t it doesn’t we move on

I would hope so, lol.

[Baltimorewx]

32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Still uncertainty within the Eps. Mean  H5 depicts as u said a flatter wave and quicker then the op and also with confluence hanging on a bit longer . Almost 7 days out but at least we r tracking.  Imo beats tracking 60 and sunny which is a dime a dozen lol. 

When is 60s to near 70 and sunny a dime a dozen? We get like 2 months out of the year where it’s even a solid possibility lol

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Still uncertainty within the Eps. Mean  H5 depicts as u said a flatter wave and quicker then the op and also with confluence hanging on a bit longer . Almost 7 days out but at least we r tracking.  Imo beats tracking 60 and sunny which is a dime a dozen lol. 

I would probably take my chances with the confluence and a well timed flatter wave, even though this scenario has resulted in shredding or suppression a lot this winter. It is the colder look, and we don't have the blocking we had earlier. Otoh, a more amped wave coming in a bit later might have more upside for the western highlands, and maybe even your hood, but for the lowlands in mid March..