George001 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 13 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I do believe in that correlation. The last several super ninos (1973/1983/1998/2016) were all followed by multiple year hostile pacific patterns. But at the same time let’s not pretend the larger trend isn’t there either. The 99-02 period was worse then the comparable post nino 80s and 70s periods and the 17-21 period now was worst of all. And the frequency of sub 10” winters is increasing even independent of those post nino periods. So like I’ve said our recent problems are a combo of both. Both a shorter term hostile period coinciding with the continued degradation of our larger scale snow climo. There will still be peaks and wins but imo the valleys are going to be lower and more frequent. The degradation of snow climo is very much a real phenomenon, I have noticed it even in New England. I am as big of a weenie as anyone and love the snow but I can’t ignore the reality that it is more difficult to get snow and cold than it used to be. It seems like marginal patterns that would have worked even 10 years ago don’t work anymore. Global warming is very much a factor, and it is becoming even more of a factor in recent years as the warming of our planet accelerates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 A little late in the game but the next advertised 'good' look on the EPS is the period from around St Patty's day heading towards the Equinox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 3 hours ago, yoda said: Please tell the 00z EURO to take the h5 map at Day 10 and return to sender ? It actually looks pretty good to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 10 hours ago, losetoa6 said: March 18-21 ,1958 had a weak ass 1022 -1026 HP and managed 1-3 ' feet totals. March will always be my favorite winter month for shear potential. And my favorite all time storm occurred this month 1993 and my birthday is in March I always use March '93 as the benchmark for my end of winter. After that, I'm in full spring mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 WB 6Z EPS is quiet through the end of next work week, it will be interesting to see if there is one last bout of wintry weather to track as we go into the last two weeks of March, but I will be cleaning out my garden beds this week as things finally dry out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS is quiet through the end of next work week, it will be interesting to see if there is one last bout of wintry weather to track as we go into the last two weeks of March, but I will be cleaning out my garden beds this week as things finally dry out. The potential interesting time frame would be after this. Starting next weekend and beyond. Wouldn't shock me to have 1 more event to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 I'm ready for the 60s/70s being advertised next week. screw snow, bring warmth and spring. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm ready for the 60s/70s being advertised next week. screw snow, bring warmth and spring. Yep...I mean we're obviously still gonna have our chill shots into April but next week is gonna be nice...CMC actually has us getting near 80 Friday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 33 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The potential interesting time frame would be after this. Starting next weekend and beyond. Wouldn't shock me to have 1 more event to track. Yea there’s no threat until after this front day 7 or so, if that front is strong enough (near lakes) it could set up the follow up wave near texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 I was flipping through pictures and was amazed at how crazy March 2014 was. We had March 3 with 5-6 inches with temps in the TEENS the next day. Then about 10" on March 17 and I think it might have snowed one more time at the end of the month. I agree with Mappy though and this 6-10 day outlook pleases me 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 21 hours ago, Avdave said: I would be happy with DCA compared to here in Raleigh. Im at 1.6" STD lol. Not to get personal but what kind of STD do you have?. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Its been a nice ride but I am about ready to cash my chips in here and go place some long range bets at the 2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 WB 12Z Para digital snow only 13 days away.... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 4 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: I was flipping through pictures and was amazed at how crazy March 2014 was. We had March 3 with 5-6 inches with temps in the TEENS the next day. Then about 10" on March 17 and I think it might have snowed one more time at the end of the month. I agree with Mappy though and this 6-10 day outlook pleases me Should easily get our first 70 (and maybe 75 if things break right) of the year in DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Euro has a little clipper like system saturday night the 13th into 14th...nothing exciting verbatim but would be a little snow/mix maybe for the northern tier, otherwise nothing much of note thru the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: Should easily get our first 70 (and maybe 75 if things break right) of the year in DC! Perfect progression of temps! As much as we didn't like the outcome, the core of cold + blocking actually happening in winter with a gradual warmup entering Spring is a welcome sight. Hopefully no pesky neg NAO making its mark into April with a sudden jump to Summer as we've had in more than one recent winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z Para digital snow only 13 days away.... Pretty sure if the Para couldn't deliver us the digital snow in Jan and Feb in a extremely blocked pattern, then for sure it will be wrong for about the 40th time this winter with that depiction you posted. All I can say is I love winter storms, but for now, Good bye winter ! Hello Spring ! Looking forward to rain free weather and temps near 70 degrees next week. My emotional state has already improved. Planning my landscaping now, and enjoying the sun and outdoors. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 4 hours ago, ravensrule said: Not to get personal but what kind of STD do you have?. Herpes Simplex 10 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: End of the Euro run looks like a storm train to me with a reinforcing cold shot poised to drop se out of central Canada extraping . A bit of a ridge bridge showing up in the northern latitudes at 240 as well . No sign of a ridge bridge on the mean in that timeframe but roll this forward a day or 2 and there is a decent look with ridging out west, cold pressing, and the SE ridge flattened. As I posted this morning the best potential for something wintry appears to be from around the 15th and esp beyond.. St Patty's day storm! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Going out with a bang Tucks and stalls for 24 hours. 3 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Going out with a bang Tucks and stalls for 24 hours. 3 1 6 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 too bad JB didnt use the March 58 analog. He has used it the past 23 winters 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 FULL TUCK 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 That makes 118 inches of digital snow since 1 Dec. Still virtually shoveling. Don’t need anymore...oh what the hell 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Congrats, Binghamton. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 28 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That makes 118 inches of digital snow since 1 Dec. Still virtually shoveling. Don’t need anymore...oh what the hell One more time brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: One more time brother. Ok. You made a compelling plea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Tasty! Even Short Pump getting the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 00z GFS laughs at the 18z GFS and says 18z must have had too much to drink. 00z GFS has 60s Wed/Thur and 70 on Friday... but then cool air returns next weekend with highs in the 40s Sat and around 50 on Sun Week of the 15th had warm Monday... but then Tues-Fri must have a backdoor front around cause highs are mainly in the 40s and 50s.... and stays there in the super extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 57 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GFS laughs at the 18z GFS and says 18z must have had too much to drink. 00z GFS has 60s Wed/Thur and 70 on Friday... but then cool air returns next weekend with highs in the 40s Sat and around 50 on Sun Week of the 15th had warm Monday... but then Tues-Fri must have a backdoor front around cause highs are mainly in the 40s and 50s.... and stays there in the super extended You’re doing play by play on the 300 hour gfs??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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