OKTWISTER Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 We may have been the Oklahoma Arctic the last two weeks but give it a week and it will be severe season. I was reading this attached spring outlook and realized that if we do have an active season it could kick off very soon. CPC looks warmer and somewhat moist in the next couple of weeks so we could see a early March event start to show up. If we rock like the end of the La Nina in 2011 we could be very busy. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range/spring-2021-first-weather-forecast-la-nina-usa-europe-fa/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 An early season event that comes to mind with March is the infamous March 12th, 2006 tornado outbreak. That was a La Nina Spring as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 It does seem like this year maybe pretty active. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted February 28, 2021 Author Share Posted February 28, 2021 So I came across some analogs for the first couple of weeks of March. I still think we will have a event in the middle part of March this year. Past events show that we could see a strong event and we are seeing some good moisture return to the SE from the Gulf of Mexico and if we can get the return with a dynamic system we could see some early spring magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 Prospects for severe weather seem to ramp up rather significantly by mid-march. Guidance has been keying in on western troughing for several runs now. **BUT it is March, so moisture will almost certainly be an issue to deal with, especially with the FROPA occurring right now in the GOM, as well as the FROPA/low that is forecast to occur this weekend -- these combined FROPAs really deal a blow to LLVL moisture in the GOM prior to any of our potential systems 3/9 to 3/16. Nevertheless, it is difficult to imagine a scenario with zero impactful severe storms occurring next week across the Central and Southern Plains with the mid/upper-level pattern depicted on the 00Z GFS -- regardless of nebulous details related to moisture return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted March 8, 2021 Author Share Posted March 8, 2021 Looks like the SPC is slowly upping the chances for severe storms this week. May be the start of the spring season with some decent moisture return possible. We will have to watch this system as there could be some decent but limited storms. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Mar 07 2021 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... The medium-range models start out the day 4 to 8 period in decent agreement. For Wednesday, the various solutions have an upper-level low near the coast of California and show southwest mid-level flow from the Desert Southwest northeastward across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to be located in the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms will be possible along the front from late Wednesday afternoon into the overnight period. The most likely corridor for convective development would along and ahead of the front, from northern sections of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. With surface dewpoints forecast to be in the 50s F ahead of the front, instability should remain weak. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to strong, making a severe threat possible in spite of the weak instability. The potential for severe storms could be maximized in Oklahoma and eastern Kansas Wednesday night, where low-level flow and moisture are forecast to be the greatest. Southwest-mid-level flow is forecast to be maintained on Thursday from the south-central U.S. into to the northeastern states. At the surface by late Thursday afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from northern sections of the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. The ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and Canadian models are reasonably close with the front position at 00Z/Friday. The models suggest that convection will develop along the front from late Thursday afternoon and persist through the evening and into the overnight period. The strongest instability is forecast in the southern Plains while the strongest deep-layer shear is forecast much further northeast into the mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. In addition, many of the GEFS members have a shortwave ridge located in the south-central U.S. Thursday night. Although a severe threat could develop Thursday evening along and ahead of much of the front, the factors previously mentioned make the forecast magnitude of any severe threat highly uncertain. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, the medium-range models diverge sharply. Model solutions vary on the position and strength of the upper-level low across the western U.S. This will impact the forecast further to the east across the Great Plains and lower to mid Mississippi Valley. The models do show a moist airmass in place across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. A cold front is forecast from Oklahoma eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley but some solutions have the front further to the south than others, such as the ECMWF. Severe thunderstorm development could occur near the front Friday afternoon and evening. The strongest instability would be in the southern Plains suggesting the severe threat would be maximized from north Texas into Oklahoma. A threat area may need to be added in later outlooks, once the models show run-to-run consistency and certainty increases. On Saturday and Sunday, the models sharply diverge on the upper-level pattern. Some solutions move the upper-level eastward into the central states while others weaken the upper-level low. There is a large spread in GEFS members as well. If the upper-level low does move eastward into the Great Plains, a substantial severe threat would be possible ahead of the system Saturday afternoon and evening. The severe threat could redevelop further to the east along and ahead of a cold front on Sunday in the Mississippi Valley. This scenario will be dependent upon the upper-level low moving eastward into the central U.S. If the upper-level gradually weakens, as the ECMWF solution suggests, the severe threat in the south-central and southeastern U.S. would be much more localized. For the reasons previously stated, predictability is low for Saturday and Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 SPC with the days 5, 6, & 7 15% contours. Looking promising so far, some heavy rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 GFS tries too rap some snow through the KC region on Thursday but at this point seems as if its alone. Ton of much needed rain here the last couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 It looks warmer than average and uneventful for the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, lookingnorth said: It looks warmer than average and uneventful for the near future. Kinda thinking we might get something towards the end of April into May (logically and climatology speaking) but overall this may be a Dixie Alley year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 9 hours ago, stormdragonwx said: Kinda thinking we might get something towards the end of April into May (logically and climatology speaking) but overall this may be a Dixie Alley year. Haven't the past several years been a "Dixie Alley" year? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted April 3, 2021 Author Share Posted April 3, 2021 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 03 2021 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance is converging towards a scenario of a western U.S. trough evolving into a closed mid-level low over the central U.S. during the early half of the extended period. Severe potential will likely focus on Tuesday across KS and possibly OK near a dryline with storms developing eastward overnight. Uncertainty remains regarding moisture quality and capping concerns but hail/wind are the main threats with this activity. Higher confidence exists for organized severe storms on Wednesday from the Ozarks eastward to the MS Valley as high momentum flow overspreads a potential moderately unstable boundary layer centered on Arkansas. All hazards are possible. A separate bi-modal area of concern could develop farther north but there is low confidence in this scenario. Uncertainty increases by Thursday owing in part to model spread and potential consequential effects of appreciable convective overturning for areas farther east/southeast on Thursday (day 6). Model variability increases during the latter part of the extended period. Not much but something in a very dry period..... Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 446 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041030- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 446 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. SIGNIFICANT WINDS. RISK...Limited. AREA...Northeast Oklahoma. ONSET...Ongoing...diminishing around sunset. FIRE WEATHER DANGER. RISK...Elevated. AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing...improving around sunset. DISCUSSION... Winds gusting 15 to 25 mph will remain common through the early evening hours. These winds along with warm temperatures and low humidity values will continue to support high grassland fire spread rates across much of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Winds will decrease around sunset and fire weather conditions will improve. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Spotter Activation Not Expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. SUNDAY...High Fire Weather Potential. MONDAY...High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential. TUESDAY...Thunderstorm, High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential. WEDNESDAY...Strong to Severe Thunderstorm, High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential. THURSDAY...High Fire Weather Potential. FRIDAY...No Hazards. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Warm and windy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns this weekend and into much of next week. A storm system will move into the Plains Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms may develop across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 Might get a hit of snow in KC area Tuesday. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 Snow is more likely now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Picked up about an inch of snow on cars grass ect. Crazy for 4/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Looks like the long awaited return of a severe-favorable pattern is coming soon. Next Tuesday is looking potentially big-time from a severe weather prospective across the Plains. Big-league negative tilt trough with a strong LLJ. Main question at this point seems to be moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Friday has somewhat decent potential (finally) for a widespread / non-conditional severe weather threat in DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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