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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

570dm on a day 9 ens mean for March.

image.png

I saw that -

I'd like to add that we're putting that up on a D9 ...                          D              9    !                     oh, right you mentioned that - heh right

That might be antithetically similar to 995 mb low on a D9 EPS  in turns of relative or absolute value.  Just guessin' but yeah... that may also not be a signal that's done trending.  If one cares to reset that product to D7 (168 ) and click previous 3 or 4 times, it's been gaining hypsometric depth on every cycle ... 2 and 3 dm intervals.

True for the GEFs as well - even though the operational run is clearly created to insidiously hide global warming ...  :arrowhead:

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In fact.. if that 'weakness' off the lower M/A continues to minor out, that ridge may gain vertical depth in the DCA latitudes, which would service us with taller BL thickness/deeper layer conveyor, too.. We go from 69 ish to 79'ish. 

Can't be ruled out because as the ridge node's been gathering weight across successive run cycles, so to has that thing been filling -

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I'm pretty sure (??) La Nina springs tend to be dryer than normal - 

I'm not a big fan of ENSO's anymore in the heart of the winters ..as I'm suspecting increasingly so that intense mid winter hemispheric/ambient gradient saturation is tending to mute that ENSO as primary in pattern forcing. 

We've been noting over recent winters the lack of real-time/ correlated appeals to patterns on either warm(cool) side of the ENSOs... - although it is interesting that Australia did pick up a decent wet summer this year.  By and large, however, the hemisphere's have not been registering the same climate impacts along known geographical/routes .. .. anyway, I'm not sure if that is "as" true as a hypothesis application in autumns and springs.  Anyway, ...

I also don't believe in "droughts" in New England as much as I do dry eras... that 'mimic' droughts.   This isn't west Texas...  Autumns here seldom look like their preceding summers, which altogether are utterly noisy in the statistics compared to ensuing winters...etc...  If dry eras last through all three, it's just good night at the crappes table.

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37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s March. Nothing is growing. I want it bone dry right now if we’re not getting a foot of snow. 

Actually stuff would start growing after tomorrow with the warm sun. It happens every year once the sun gets high. The problem is.. you lose green up season with a month of no rain and dews in the teens and 20’s. . That’s a problem for the vast majority of folks who like to get lawns going etc 

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Actually stuff would start growing after tomorrow with the warm sun. It happens every year once the sun gets high. The problem is.. you lose green up season with a month of no rain and dews in the teens and 20’s. . That’s a problem for the vast majority of folks who like to get lawns going etc 

Red flag warnings for everyone 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea and he’s on the nw end of the city closer to Boulder so he’ll push 30 easily. He definitely took on a TBlizz life form yesterday and it paid off.  

Gfs looked pretty bad in this. At least from what I saw. Was giving like 50” and try en tried to rain them.

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