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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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EPS has also been easing off the amplitude of that total trough integration though, too - red flag?  Might be.

- folks holding out for an exit hurrah, keep in mind that the hemisphere at mid latitudes is normalizing at an increasingly factoring aspect.  Normalizing in this context means "losing large scale storminess" .

The tendency to demolish ambient baroclinicity through increasing insolation, as it is sweeping very quickly S to N, is the culprit. It is an emergent 'correction' to keep in mind that is only making it harder than the day before to mainatin - the models 'might' not morph along with that acceleration - in fact, I argue over the years of experience that if they do, they do a lousy job. GFS probably the worst ...owing to NCEP creating a model that only has N/stream and no other reality on the planet ..ugh. 

Anyway, storms...even big ones modeled now through April, may end up verifying much more paltry... shredded cirrus and altro-strata whirls with even sun gaps that tend to fill in with pancake CU underneath, when they were originally modeled to be more more cohesive impactors.   For bigger late spring blue bombs and blizzard freaks, what needs to happen is a proportionately bigger anomaly cold input to offset the seasonal factor. Which has of course happened.  But, that thing at the end of the week.. doesn't appear situated to benefit so my guess upon thinking about this is that may not work out. We'll see... 

The flow is still a bit fast overall, though it is slowing right after that out toward the Equinox and beyond... Maybe that's a wild card in itself.. But, there's also that tendency for 'system magnification' in the models.  I mused months ago that storms showing up on D10-12 in the extended, they are like the moon coming over the dusk horizon ...looming with terrifying celestial prominence ... but then lose the magnification and ends tiny. 

By the way, that late month signal is starting to look rather warm - bigger signal than this last shot across the bow... Has a green up trigger vibe to it.   The NAO is rising while the PNA remains neutral - in a numerical averaging...  + and neutral / 2 = positive... etc..

I still believe that this spring as whole will not suffer the protracted and/or cold recidivism of those recent years ...that brought green up belated April's and even snow flurry CAA cu in May...  My mind's eye visualizes the last 10 days of the month La Nina spring incarnate with a multi-guidance eastern height anomaly already being modeled...  while the telecon layout supports ...  That's prooobably all going to parlay and closed the books on the 2020-2021 winter story - climate anyway...  But, I think there is some chance for the very rare balmy April. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

EPS has also been easing off the amplitude of that total trough integration though, too - red flag?  Might be.

- folks holding out for an exit hurrah, keep in mind that the hemisphere at mid latitudes is normalizing at an increasingly factoring aspect.  Normalizing in this context means "losing large scale storminess" .

The tendency to demolish ambient baroclinicity through increasing insolation, as it is sweeping very quickly S to N, is the culprit. It is an emergent 'correction' to keep in mind that is only making it harder than the day before to mainatin - the models 'might' not morph along with that acceleration - in fact, I argue over the years of experience that if they do, they do a lousy job. GFS probably the worst ...owing to NCEP creating a model that only has N/stream and no other reality on the planet ..ugh. 

Anyway, storms...even big ones modeled now through April, may end up verifying much more paltry... shredded cirrus and altro-strata whirls with even sun gaps that tend to fill in with pancake CU underneath, when they were originally modeled to be more more cohesive impactors.   For bigger late spring blue bombs and blizzard freaks, what needs to happen is a proportionately bigger anomaly cold input to offset the seasonal factor. Which has of course happened.  But, that thing at the end of the week.. doesn't appear situated to benefit so my guess upon thinking about this is that may not work out. We'll see... 

The flow is still a bit fast overall, though it is slowing right after that out toward the Equinox and beyond... By the way, that late month signal is starting to look rather warm - bigger signal than this last shot across the bow... Has a green up trigger vibe to it.   The NAO is rising while the PNA remains neutral - in a numerical averaging...  + and neutral / 2 = positive... etc..

I still believe that this spring as whole will not suffer the protracted and/or cold recidivism of those recent years ...that brought green up belate April's and even snow flurry CAA cu in May...  My mind's eye visualizes the last 10 days of the month La Nina spring incarnate with a multi-guidance eastern height anomaly already being modeled...  while the telecon layout support said eastern warm up ...  That's prooobably going to put the final sentences together and end the 2020-2021 winter story - climate anyway...  But, I think there is some chance that for the very rare balmy April. 

 

Spring is here and early summer not far behind. The book is closed, final words penned. 

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I’m building a lot of anger looking at the extended progs and seeing run after run of late breaking shortwaves knifing their way into New England with arctic NW flow so that our region is the one special consistent area of suck in the CONUS. 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m building a lot of anger looking at the extended progs and seeing run after run of late breaking shortwaves knifing their way into New England with arctic NW flow so that our region is the one special consistent area of suck in the CONUS. 

Nah, shorts, t shirts, country music ..sitting on back of pickup with a beer and brisket. Torchy times ahead.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m building a lot of anger looking at the extended progs and seeing run after run of late breaking shortwaves knifing their way into New England with arctic NW flow so that our region is the one special consistent area of suck in the CONUS. 

You’re just begging for a 3 paragraph response from Tip with that comment.

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48 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I think he's doing the reverse psychology thing, works sometimes

I’m with Tip on a mild month overall with 40’s and 50’s. It’s not a cold or snowy pattern at all. I’m honestly not sure where Scooters getting that from. Could it snow if timed right? Sure.. but it’s not a high likelihood in this fast flow pac jet pattern. I’ll hope it happens and plan on it not 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m with Tip on a mild month overall with 40’s and 50’s. It’s not a cold or snowy pattern at all. I’m honestly not sure where Scooters getting that from. Could it snow if timed right? Sure.. but it’s not a high likelihood in this fast flow pac jet pattern. I’ll hope it happens and plan on it not 

How is 40s and 50s in March mild?

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m with Tip on a mild month overall with 40’s and 50’s. It’s not a cold or snowy pattern at all. I’m honestly not sure where Scooters getting that from. Could it snow if timed right? Sure.. but it’s not a high likelihood in this fast flow pac jet pattern. I’ll hope it happens and plan on it not 

Scooter never said cold and snowy...he said watch next week for some potential. That’s all he said. And that it doesn’t look too mild going forward after yesterday and Thursday.  That’s all he said. 

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