March 2021 Weather Discussion

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I think we can all get behind a Mar 98, 10, or 12.

Go big or go gardenGo big or go garden

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

18 to 20. How much this year?

Well if the stupide BOX "Past Storm Database" wasn't such a POS I could find out how much actually fell.  I recall multiple 6"+ events plus one bigger one over a foot.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Shallow snow depth, the green is 24”+

This is the regular one

Had 40 in the shade mostly 36 to 40

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well if the stupide BOX "Past Storm Database" wasn't such a POS I could find out how much actually fell.  I recall multiple 6"+ events plus one bigger one over a foot.

Try NOW data

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Try NOW data

TAN doesn't report snowfall data

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

TAN doesn't report snowfall data

Everyone around you had 16 to 20

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Everyone around you had 16 to 20

Than my memory sucks.  Sue me.

[Ginx snewx]

How about this for 45 days

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Than my memory sucks.  Sue me.

We all have memory issues. Thank God for the internet 

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Had 40 in the shade mostly 36 to 40

unreal awesomeness

[CoastalWx]

Oh we don't forget that winter for sure. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

unreal awesomeness

Speaking of that God it is gorgeous today.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Last two pages is talk of six years ago...sums up the state of March 2021. lol

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Speaking of that God it is gorgeous today.  

I love when they meditate like that.  They're just soaking it in.  When I take my girl out at night sometimes when there's a bright moon reflecting off the snow she just sits and stares at the moon.

[ORH_wxman]

There's actuality a pretty huge difference between the EPS and GEFS for around D10-13.....EPS has western ridging and some decent cold around while GEFS are trying to give us the first taste of true spring (maybe 60s or near 70 if things broke right). GEPS is sort of in-between though prob leans more toward EPS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There's actuality a pretty huge difference between the EPS and GEFS for around D10-13.....EPS has western ridging and some decent cold around while GEFS are trying to give us the first taste of true spring (maybe 60s or near 70 if things broke right). GEPS is sort of in-between though prob leans more toward EPS.

I think we will probably end up with one more plowable event.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob gonna have a chance or two in the first week of March if EPS is right. 

I'm wondering what the EPS'     PNA   curve looks like ?

The GEFs ( as anyone can see if they bother to look/ keep track ..) has been taking the PNA to -2 SD between now at Mar 1 ...then, for 5 days ... it does send the curve through camel hump, concertedly among the members.   After that the extended settles back blah blah. 

That hump doesn't quite get back to neutral ... but, it is a mode suggestion in there that sends "some"thing across middle latitudes of the continent ... even it ends up a non storm .. some kind of trough - it's just that the extent of it is probably not very anomalous, nor long lasting ... given the GEFs.

But I'm wondering if the EPS might have a similar interim of PNA rise..only more robust?   The Euro operational counterpart really seems to be honing that period of time with insistent +PNAP ( which is the actual over-continental expression with some lag off a +PNA ) but that layout is more so than the GEFs... I'm willing to hunch the EPS and the whole Euro cluster might be in a different bubble of ideas comparing to the GFS.

For one, that absurdly deep cold shock event has backed off the overnight GFS runs, as others have assessed - not that we didn't suspect that would happen with its    -99    SD trough that is physically impossible on Pluto let alone Earth -

Speaking of the GEFS - the totality of the telecon spread between the majors ( AO, NAO, PNA ) are all still yet again insisting upon switching the hemispheric mode.  It seems there is a recurring theme ...really going on for the past week's worth of everything godly and glorious in the technological realm of atmospheric modeling: Do not allow operational runs to ever look as warmly impressive as that teleconnector converged signal would fit. 

I'm so put off by the operational GFS's abysmal and embarrassingly coherent cold height bias ... I don't know what to think or wonder what goes into those individual members let alone the blend. 

For spring enthusiasts ...you still have La Nina climo which is a pretty strongly warm look.  Thing is, it might be hard to parse that out with CC piggy backing..  Climate change is like an automatic decimals if not whole degree above monthly norm expectancy anyway.  But these ENSO numbers look by both numerology and behavior spanning the last 6 months, similar to years in the past that had obscene warm spells nested in a three month mean that was well above normal .. The climate inference alone has legs. 

For now, 46 F at 9:15 on Feb 24, with sun equivalent to October 15 ( for perspective ..), and only light wind, and full gem-sky blue sun unabated to Kevin's shining dome ... while angels kiss his nape ... does have an appeal doesn't it ..   heh.  Anyway, today oughta bust MOS... We've officially entered the MOS bust time of year for these sort of nape days-

[Ginx snewx]

39 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well if the stupide BOX "Past Storm Database" wasn't such a POS I could find out how much actually fell.  I recall multiple 6"+ events plus one bigger one over a foot.

Bob

 

[PhineasC]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Last two pages is talk of six years ago...sums up the state of March 2021. lol

LOL yep. You know this upcoming March looks like shit if instead of talking about it they talk about past March periods that didn't suck.

Old GFS is a dumpster fire, but v16 and Euro look better through the first week of March.

[Fozz]

49 minutes ago, White Rain said:

March 4th, 2015

 

 

Poor Burlington.

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Last two pages is talk of six years ago...sums up the state of March 2021. lol

Well the Euro is at least interesting 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah Mar 2015 sucked here....cold but not much snow. Give me 2018 or 2013....I'll take 2017 too or even 2019 which had a great start to the month.

It's true ... for storm enthusiasts, that February orgasm blue balled their March.  I remember growing weary of it by mid month.  We had been 10 days with blinding cold. I remember like nearly a week's worth of days, back-to-back, where mid day temp on the car's dashboard was always "19 F Outdoors"   I'm like, March 16?  19 F at 1pm ... that's 4 days before the Equinox.  Imagine it being September 26th and its 19 F.   I wonder if the ground would be too warm to snow, lol.   It was unrelenting and I was feeling like the show was over but the atmosphere wouldn't leave the auditorium ... ' fine, July is sill coming whether it wants to admit it or not'  ...it still didn't really end there.. I think there was snow in some baseball stadiums into the first week of April - was that that year?  I remember trying to watch a Red Sox game even after the season opening road trip toward April 7 ..and there was packing pellets and pitchers "warming up" in 33 F ... it was nuts.  But through all that, it was wasted cold. Despite the remarkable and historic February, that year's silent record is really the 45 days of wasted cold LOL ...We could have had 500" of snow that year if storm rates maintained same with that bank-able cold  ( edit, yeah okay so .. south of the pike there was still some activity but it doesn't diminish the point - you didn't get 120" south of Pike in March)

Bit of hyperbole ( heh ) but I always thought that being that year's "leaving some on the table"  - all the greats do.   1995-1996, I always wondered what could have been that year if Minnesotans didn't steal three weeks and four cutters worth out from under us rich greedy bastards back east. Jerks

So ...to me, March 2015 was the real nadir of that "pattern storm" .  Because from a broader Meteorological/ synoptic philosophy it is not the coldest break, it is when the instability is normalized and the set up enters a stasis of inactivity.  That's the ultimate nadir because the 'storms' in getting there is still the d(pattern) phase... At the bottom, it rests... -

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

LOL yep. You know this upcoming March looks like shit if instead of talking about it they talk about past March periods that didn't suck.

Old GFS is a dumpster fire, but v16 and Euro look better through the first week of March.

I mean, it doesn't look great, but I don't expect March 2012, either.

[Ginx snewx]

32 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I love when they meditate like that.  They're just soaking it in.  When I take my girl out at night sometimes when there's a bright moon reflecting off the snow she just sits and stares at the moon.

He will sit for a half hour in the snow. Will lay in the snow chewing bones while it is dumping. Half Husky half St Bernard so snow is in his blood.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Well the Euro is at least interesting 

I agree.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL yep. You know this upcoming March looks like shit if instead of talking about it they talk about past March periods that didn't suck.

Old GFS is a dumpster fire, but v16 and Euro look better through the first week of March.

So sad you missed it

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's true ... for storm enthusiasts, that February orgasm blue balled their March.  I remember growing weary of it by mid month.  We had been 10 days with blinding cold. I remember like nearly a week's worth of days, back-to-back, where mid day temp on the car's dashboard was always "19 F Outdoors"   I'm like, March 16?  19 F at 1pm ... that's 4 days before the Equinox.  Imagine September 26th and it 19 F.   I wonder if the ground would be too warm to snow, lol -

I always thought that was that year's "leaving some on the table"  - all the greats do.   1995-1996, I always wondered what could have been that year if Minnesotans didn't steal three weeks and four cutters worth out from under us rich greedy bastards back east. Jerks

So ...to me, March 2015 was the real nadir of that "pattern storm" .  Because from a broader Meteorological/ synoptic philosophy it is not the coldest break, it is when the instability is normalized and the set up enters a stasis of inactivity.  That's the ultimate nadir because the 'storms' in getting there is still the d(pattern) phase... At the bottom, it rests... -

Unless you lived south of the Pike that is. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's true ... for storm enthusiasts, that February orgasm blue balled their March.  I remember growing weary of it by mid month.  We had been 10 days with blinding cold. I remember like nearly a week's worth of days, back-to-back, where mid day temp on the car's dashboard was always "19 F Outdoors"   I'm like, March 16?  19 F at 1pm ... that's 4 days before the Equinox.  Imagine September 26th and it 19 F.   I wonder if the ground would be too warm to snow, lol -

I always thought that was that year's "leaving some on the table"  - all the greats do.   1995-1996, I always wondered what could have been that year if Minnesotans didn't steal three weeks and four cutters worth out from under us rich greedy bastards back east. Jerks

So ...to me, March 2015 was the real nadir of that "pattern storm" .  Because from a broader Meteorological/ synoptic philosophy it is not the coldest break, it is when the instability is normalized and the set up enters a stasis of inactivity.  That's the ultimate nadir because the 'storms' in getting there is still the d(pattern) phase... At the bottom, it rests... -

March 2015 was serviceable south of the pike, but for us, it was just a slow rot out of an epic pack. I was convinced by mid Feb that I would overtake 1996 for my snowiest ever, but March cost me that record...fell about a foot shy. 

Boston got it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Unless you lived south of the Pike that is. 

Yea, I was just saying that.

[BrianW]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

He will sit for a half hour in the snow. Will lay in the snow chewing bones while it is dumping. Half Husky half St Bernard so snow is in his blood.n

You ever do one of those dog DNA test?  I ordered a wisdom panel dna kit and just got it yesterday. Will be cool to see what our rescue is. The vet thinks he is Dachshund and Chihuahua.