Cyclone-68 Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 I love severe weather and hurricanes and no doubt in my mind some deity is going to make me pay handsomely for that one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Goofus with a couple of RASN systems late next week while the euro warm sectors us for 3 days. Saw that - thing is, the Euro with it's curvature defaulting for whatever it is in the process of handling on D4's, then relaying that into 6's in general, has me thinking that it bottoms the barrel out there in the southern Rockies earlier on too much. Meanwhile the EPS has the same 120 hour and 168 hour suggestion as the GEFs... and both are sending enough signal under LI that it's probably wise to suspect that operational look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We all cheer on the weather we like. Period. Doesn’t make one a bad person at all. But be careful of the old saying....Be careful what you wish for. Sometimes it comes back and bites ya. whineminster asked why people including DIT liked gypsy damage, I explain why OTHERS do, and I'm labeled the bad guy. Silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He cheers on torches that kill vulnerable people in the summer. Beat me to it - heat waves take more lives than do snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Gfs and para is very interesting. Euro is most likely too amped like it has been all winter. There seems to be layers of competing error in that regard. Both in the model itself, and among all guidance for that matter. The first layer is as you say... but, I would also extend that the Euro has a consummate "multi-generational" ( meaning it's been going on for years across successive upgrades) bias when going form the outer short range into mid range, and then again going from the deeper mids to the extended range. It seems to default whatever it is handling in the atmosphere nearing those temporal seams, to a category of increased amplitude when crossing the time range. I've noticed this at 4.5 days ...then again 7 + The first one does it the most. If there is a small clipper 'dent' in the 500 mb stream lines at D4 ... by D6, it's a full latitude torque menace over the OV far far too often... And usually we get threads and posts going about the D7 Euro like equal clockwork. Ha ha, I bet if did a correlation statistical analysis on thread and post frequency as a comparison to the Euro, we would see a very high correlation coefficients between those amp intervals and the scale and degree of gaeity and good spirits that passes through this social media'sphere like a panacea cure for all that travails and ails the beleaguered warriors suffering dearths of lives outside this obsession -... Might be an interesting analysis for the techno-sociological experiment of Humanity in modernity dissertation Ray should be working on to garner his PHD... But I digress - lol Anyway, seriously ... the second aspect/layer is that all models - as separate issue to the Euro's ongoing native bias ... - have been very consistently seeing disturbances in the D7+ range quite ominous compared to what they end up being whence the arrive to say ...D4 ... Insidiously correcting toward less and less in inches and parametrics as it gets near, such that you just sort of end up with bag of peanuts when you thought you were toting a roast turkey. Ha, like that dream? You know? Where you have the impression of holding the hand of your dream girl, and then when you look down -in the dream - she's not there. Then the dream spends the next few minutes of tossing and turning and REM as you try and find her and it seems like the dream deliberately evades her presents. Probably the same phenomenon as trying to reach the end of a hall and as you run faster, it stretches to infinity and you can never find it. I digress again... man, I have a real problem with that, I know - Problem is, how to parse out which error is representing for next week is ... good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: I have given up on getting another big synoptic snow event here in March. Punting to April and hoping for a miracle. April snow is good. Have you at least enjoyed your new location though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 I just don’t see a warm pattern like washing trucks in Tolland does. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 1 minute ago, A Moonlit Sky said: April snow is good. Have you at least enjoyed your new location though? It’s been awesome, A+ grade from me. This stretch of soon to be two months without a snowfall over 2” has been kinda annoying considering how epic Feb was elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 I’d probably side more with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just don’t see a warm pattern like washing trucks in Tolland does. 40’s and 50’s is mild. Where’s the cold ?Where’s the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 40’s and 50’s is mild. Where’s the cold ?Where’s the snow? So now it’s 40s and mild? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: So now it’s 40s and mild? Where was it posted about warmth? Quote it please We said mild overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs and para is very interesting. Euro is most likely too amped like it has been all winter. Guess what the gfs just did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where was it posted about warmth? Quote it please We said mild overall Doesn’t seem that mild to me. Mild suggests above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d probably side more with the euro. The euro isn’t looking good for my forecast right now but unfortunately at this point i agree with you. It might be time for me to give up on that storm and the winter. Not going to completely rule out the possibly for a late season storm, but based on the latest model guidance we are more than likely done. The storm track will likely be to the west of us, and the above normal temps appear to remain though the rest of March. I’m still going to be tracking until mid April though like I always do because I’m a weenie and if I think there is even a .00000001% chance of seeing a snowstorm I track. The models did look favorable for one or two late season blizzards a few days ago but things changed. The polar vortex is literally over the North Pole right now and that type of pattern has a tendency to lock in for a long time, so it’s likely the models rushed the pattern change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Doesn’t seem that mild to me. Mild suggests above normal. Mild suggests mild which is 40’s and 50’s. And they’ll be an occasional 60 day inland like we always see. It’s hard to admit for you I know, but winter gone. We done . She let us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So now it’s 40s and mild? 40's is climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 GFS looked chilly for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mild suggests mild which is 40’s and 50’s. And they’ll be an occasional 60 day inland like we always see. It’s hard to admit for you I know, but winter gone. We done . She let us out 40’s now isn’t mild. Upper 50’s with no wind and full sun is nice/mild. But 40’s this time of year, which is climo currently, isn’t mild at all imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: GFS looked chilly for next week. Ya, it’s gonna go to shit now! 40’s with wind and party cloudy for the next 6 weeks, we know the drill...yeah :-(. Sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 40's is climo. Right. Seems closer to climo when you avg it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, it’s gonna go to shit now! 40’s with wind and party cloudy for the next 6 weeks, we know the drill...yeah :-(. Sucks. Nah mild. Washing trucks, breweries...mild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 29 minutes ago, George001 said: The euro isn’t looking good for my forecast right now but unfortunately at this point i agree with you. It might be time for me to give up on that storm and the winter. Not going to completely rule out the possibly for a late season storm, but based on the latest model guidance we are more than likely done. The storm track will likely be to the west of us, and the above normal temps appear to remain though the rest of March. I’m still going to be tracking until mid April though like I always do because I’m a weenie and if I think there is even a .00000001% chance of seeing a snowstorm I track. The models did look favorable for one or two late season blizzards a few days ago but things changed. The polar vortex is literally over the North Pole right now and that type of pattern has a tendency to lock in for a long time, so it’s likely the models rushed the pattern change. Suggest less imaginative-casting, and more forecasting utilizing - at least in attempt ... - applied logic/analytics and techniques - thus, the former as formative from those deterministic sciences in the matter. It's fun and artful to dream up scenarios ... We've all done it, either deliberately or even in accident... but don't be reliant - that is not going to have a positive return method frankly. Plus, it's a little odd if one expects those visions to happen? But it also bad practice in general, if one does that... but then must wait on, or be reliant, that permutations and the vagaries of the fractal nature of distant weather patterns and the wind will happen to emerge scenarios consistent with their fantasies. Just a word to the wise ... You're - probably - young, and full of mental energy. I would not want to discourage anyone in that time of life... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nah mild. Washing trucks, breweries...mild. Break out the really short shorts for the 0415 jog? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nah mild. Washing trucks, breweries...mild. Still wondering where the cold , snowy pattern you’re forecasting is. When will it hit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 42 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, it’s gonna go to shit now! 40’s with wind and party cloudy for the next 6 weeks, we know the drill...yeah :-(. Sucks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 completely different day here today with a gentle breeze off the land up to 64.4 at UUU. yesterday felt cold with wind blowing 20+ off the water and temps in the low 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Love to be in the front range This weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 1 hour ago, George001 said: The euro isn’t looking good for my forecast right now but unfortunately at this point i agree with you. It might be time for me to give up on that storm and the winter. Not going to completely rule out the possibly for a late season storm, but based on the latest model guidance we are more than likely done. The storm track will likely be to the west of us, and the above normal temps appear to remain though the rest of March. I’m still going to be tracking until mid April though like I always do because I’m a weenie and if I think there is even a .00000001% chance of seeing a snowstorm I track. The models did look favorable for one or two late season blizzards a few days ago but things changed. The polar vortex is literally over the North Pole right now and that type of pattern has a tendency to lock in for a long time, so it’s likely the models rushed the pattern change. Take her advice because it is your only chance to see a blizzard........ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Love to be in the front range This weekend Black hills might be even better. Lead, SD FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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