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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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10 hours ago, George001 said:

On the Canadian it appears after near record warmth this week, we have 3 miller b nor’easters from March 17th to March 20th. According to the upper level pattern the first 2 threats are unlikely to be big if anything. However it is the third low that catches my interest. Leading up to the storm there is a huge ridge out west which should allow for storms to amplify, slow down, and come up the coast. Since the flow is slow and buckled on the Canadian, the room for error when it comes to phasing of the northern and southern streams increases. Any storm that does develop will undergo rapid cyclogenesis and come up the coast as a massive slow moving ocean low. I strongly believe there will be a massive slow moving east coast storm but the big question is going to be precip type. At this point it will be late March so cold air won’t be as easy to come by. However, on the Canadian the polar vortex is not anywhere near the North Pole, it is displaced to the south and east. With the polar vortex sitting over east-central Canada as well as a highly amplified flow, the pattern favors northern stream energy diving into the Midwest, which would not only phase with the southern branch but it would also bring cold air in. It’s still far out and it is late March so there are factors working against us, but with the pattern in place there is the potential for a massive early spring blizzard in New England. If the threat does end up panning out, due to the gradient of warm March waters amplified by near record warmth clashing with cold air being funneled into the northeast via the polar vortex, that’s a recipe for a historically strong ocean low. 940s or 950s is not out of the question. However, the warm waters is a double edged sword, as it will be harder to overcome the warm ocean air, which will lead to rain in the coastal areas. In my opinion there will be ptype issues possibly as far west as Worcester with this type of setup. However, if the storm does reach this strength with a favorable track, it will likely be a start as rain and then as the low bombs out and the winds turn more north than north east, the rain snow line would crash right and all of eastern mass would flip over to heavy snow with blizzard conditions developing for 12+ hours due to the slow moving nature of the storm. The run didn’t go out that far, but in my opinion if you extrapolate the Canadian it would be a few hours of rain followed by a long duration blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 3 feet in all of eastern Mass. I’m not forecasting that just yet, but this does fit the pattern so there is a higher than usual chance something like that will happen. 

You need to flip the calendar in the basement from Feb 2015 to Mar 2019....

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19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is just stupid GFS gone wild

download (12).png

Is heavy late season snow part of the climo in the front range or is it a more recent thing?  I feel like the last few years the front range ski areas have been crushed mid march deep into april. 

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Just now, GCWarrior said:

Is heavy late season snow part of the climo in the front range or is it a more recent thing?  I feel like the last few years the front range ski areas have been crushed mid march deep into april. 

That is their climo for big snow. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyways, that period from the 17th or 18th on is one to watch. I don't think that has changed in over a week. Enjoy the next few days because winter tries for its last gasp.

Yeah prob about a week to perhaps 10 day window there. 

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Get ready they’re saying 

Friday night and Saturday...

This will be the most impactful period of the extended forecast. The
truly arctic front moves through Friday night into Saturday morning
bringing a period of strong to damaging winds to all of southern New
England. This setup looks quite similar to the strong wind event we
experienced last week...strong cold air advection (850 mb temps
plunging over a short period of time), uniform NW winds through the
column, and a strong low level jet. While we have a 45 to 55 kt jet
at 850 mb, guidance indicates mixing to near 800 mb. This will lead
to some strong, potentially damaging winds ramping up late Friday
night, peaking very early Saturday morning
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