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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The upslope in CO might be nuts but even eastward into the plains. I’m tracking it...my brother in law lives in Denver. 

Yea my sister, brother in law from marriage 1 and lots of nieces nephews and cousins live from Boulder to Lakewood Longmont.  Could be epic 

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On the Canadian it appears after near record warmth this week, we have 3 miller b nor’easters from March 17th to March 20th. According to the upper level pattern the first 2 threats are unlikely to be big if anything. However it is the third low that catches my interest. Leading up to the storm there is a huge ridge out west which should allow for storms to amplify, slow down, and come up the coast. Since the flow is slow and buckled on the Canadian, the room for error when it comes to phasing of the northern and southern streams increases. Any storm that does develop will undergo rapid cyclogenesis and come up the coast as a massive slow moving ocean low. I strongly believe there will be a massive slow moving east coast storm but the big question is going to be precip type. At this point it will be late March so cold air won’t be as easy to come by. However, on the Canadian the polar vortex is not anywhere near the North Pole, it is displaced to the south and east. With the polar vortex sitting over east-central Canada as well as a highly amplified flow, the pattern favors northern stream energy diving into the Midwest, which would not only phase with the southern branch but it would also bring cold air in. It’s still far out and it is late March so there are factors working against us, but with the pattern in place there is the potential for a massive early spring blizzard in New England. If the threat does end up panning out, due to the gradient of warm March waters amplified by near record warmth clashing with cold air being funneled into the northeast via the polar vortex, that’s a recipe for a historically strong ocean low. 940s or 950s is not out of the question. However, the warm waters is a double edged sword, as it will be harder to overcome the warm ocean air, which will lead to rain in the coastal areas. In my opinion there will be ptype issues possibly as far west as Worcester with this type of setup. However, if the storm does reach this strength with a favorable track, it will likely be a start as rain and then as the low bombs out and the winds turn more north than north east, the rain snow line would crash right and all of eastern mass would flip over to heavy snow with blizzard conditions developing for 12+ hours due to the slow moving nature of the storm. The run didn’t go out that far, but in my opinion if you extrapolate the Canadian it would be a few hours of rain followed by a long duration blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 3 feet in all of eastern Mass. I’m not forecasting that just yet, but this does fit the pattern so there is a higher than usual chance something like that will happen. 

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

On the Canadian it appears after near record warmth this week, we have 3 miller b nor’easters from March 17th to March 20th. According to the upper level pattern the first 2 threats are unlikely to be big if anything. However it is the third low that catches my interest. Leading up to the storm there is a huge ridge out west which should allow for storms to amplify, slow down, and come up the coast. Since the flow is slow and buckled on the Canadian, the room for error when it comes to phasing of the northern and southern streams increases. Any storm that does develop will undergo rapid cyclogenesis and come up the coast as a massive slow moving ocean low. I strongly believe there will be a massive slow moving east coast storm but the big question is going to be precip type. At this point it will be late March so cold air won’t be as easy to come by. However, on the Canadian the polar vortex is not anywhere near the North Pole, it is displaced to the south and east. With the polar vortex sitting over east-central Canada as well as a highly amplified flow, the pattern favors northern stream energy diving into the Midwest, which would not only phase with the southern branch but it would also bring cold air in. It’s still far out and it is late March so there are factors working against us, but with the pattern in place there is the potential for a massive early spring blizzard in New England. If the threat does end up panning out, due to the gradient of warm March waters amplified by near record warmth clashing with cold air being funneled into the northeast via the polar vortex, that’s a recipe for a historically strong ocean low. 940s or 950s is not out of the question. However, the warm waters is a double edged sword, as it will be harder to overcome the warm ocean air, which will lead to rain in the coastal areas. In my opinion there will be ptype issues possibly as far west as Worcester with this type of setup. However, if the storm does reach this strength with a favorable track, it will likely be a start as rain and then as the low bombs out and the winds turn more north than north east, the rain snow line would crash right and all of eastern mass would flip over to heavy snow with blizzard conditions developing for 12+ hours due to the slow moving nature of the storm. The run didn’t go out that far, but in my opinion if you extrapolate the Canadian it would be a few hours of rain followed by a long duration blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 3 feet in all of eastern Mass. I’m not forecasting that just yet, but this does fit the pattern so there is a higher than usual chance something like that will happen. 

Only three Miller b? We toss.

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21 minutes ago, George001 said:

On the Canadian it appears after near record warmth this week, we have 3 miller b nor’easters from March 17th to March 20th. According to the upper level pattern the first 2 threats are unlikely to be big if anything. However it is the third low that catches my interest. Leading up to the storm there is a huge ridge out west which should allow for storms to amplify, slow down, and come up the coast. Since the flow is slow and buckled on the Canadian, the room for error when it comes to phasing of the northern and southern streams increases. Any storm that does develop will undergo rapid cyclogenesis and come up the coast as a massive slow moving ocean low. I strongly believe there will be a massive slow moving east coast storm but the big question is going to be precip type. At this point it will be late March so cold air won’t be as easy to come by. However, on the Canadian the polar vortex is not anywhere near the North Pole, it is displaced to the south and east. With the polar vortex sitting over east-central Canada as well as a highly amplified flow, the pattern favors northern stream energy diving into the Midwest, which would not only phase with the southern branch but it would also bring cold air in. It’s still far out and it is late March so there are factors working against us, but with the pattern in place there is the potential for a massive early spring blizzard in New England. If the threat does end up panning out, due to the gradient of warm March waters amplified by near record warmth clashing with cold air being funneled into the northeast via the polar vortex, that’s a recipe for a historically strong ocean low. 940s or 950s is not out of the question. However, the warm waters is a double edged sword, as it will be harder to overcome the warm ocean air, which will lead to rain in the coastal areas. In my opinion there will be ptype issues possibly as far west as Worcester with this type of setup. However, if the storm does reach this strength with a favorable track, it will likely be a start as rain and then as the low bombs out and the winds turn more north than north east, the rain snow line would crash right and all of eastern mass would flip over to heavy snow with blizzard conditions developing for 12+ hours due to the slow moving nature of the storm. The run didn’t go out that far, but in my opinion if you extrapolate the Canadian it would be a few hours of rain followed by a long duration blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 3 feet in all of eastern Mass. I’m not forecasting that just yet, but this does fit the pattern so there is a higher than usual chance something like that will happen. 

Post a pic of yourself! 

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More days of this coming as we head into spring.  Maybe I have more seasonal affective vibe than I used to, as I notice sunny days in the spring make me feel like I took a party drug.

Tomorrow should be a good one... partly to mostly sunny, 40s, and mountains buried in snow to enjoy.

159564544_10104480049776200_973236557055

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

More days of this coming as we head into spring.  Maybe I have more seasonal affective vibe than I used to, as I notice sunny days in the spring make me feel like I took a party drug.

Tomorrow should be a good one... partly to mostly sunny, 40s, and mountains buried in snow to enjoy.

159564544_10104480049776200_973236557055

image.gif.056f72d2bc98700a70311b9f14dcc8cb.gif

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2 hours ago, George001 said:

On the Canadian it appears after near record warmth this week, we have 3 miller b nor’easters from March 17th to March 20th. According to the upper level pattern the first 2 threats are unlikely to be big if anything. However it is the third low that catches my interest. Leading up to the storm there is a huge ridge out west which should allow for storms to amplify, slow down, and come up the coast. Since the flow is slow and buckled on the Canadian, the room for error when it comes to phasing of the northern and southern streams increases. Any storm that does develop will undergo rapid cyclogenesis and come up the coast as a massive slow moving ocean low. I strongly believe there will be a massive slow moving east coast storm but the big question is going to be precip type. At this point it will be late March so cold air won’t be as easy to come by. However, on the Canadian the polar vortex is not anywhere near the North Pole, it is displaced to the south and east. With the polar vortex sitting over east-central Canada as well as a highly amplified flow, the pattern favors northern stream energy diving into the Midwest, which would not only phase with the southern branch but it would also bring cold air in. It’s still far out and it is late March so there are factors working against us, but with the pattern in place there is the potential for a massive early spring blizzard in New England. If the threat does end up panning out, due to the gradient of warm March waters amplified by near record warmth clashing with cold air being funneled into the northeast via the polar vortex, that’s a recipe for a historically strong ocean low. 940s or 950s is not out of the question. However, the warm waters is a double edged sword, as it will be harder to overcome the warm ocean air, which will lead to rain in the coastal areas. In my opinion there will be ptype issues possibly as far west as Worcester with this type of setup. However, if the storm does reach this strength with a favorable track, it will likely be a start as rain and then as the low bombs out and the winds turn more north than north east, the rain snow line would crash right and all of eastern mass would flip over to heavy snow with blizzard conditions developing for 12+ hours due to the slow moving nature of the storm. The run didn’t go out that far, but in my opinion if you extrapolate the Canadian it would be a few hours of rain followed by a long duration blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 3 feet in all of eastern Mass. I’m not forecasting that just yet, but this does fit the pattern so there is a higher than usual chance something like that will happen. 

Can you please elaborate?

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

More days of this coming as we head into spring.  Maybe I have more seasonal affective vibe than I used to, as I notice sunny days in the spring make me feel like I took a party drug.

Tomorrow should be a good one... partly to mostly sunny, 40s, and mountains buried in snow to enjoy.

159564544_10104480049776200_973236557055

Was that Stowe today?  Overcast all day up in Jay. 

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