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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is actually how I expect it to play out if we do get another event.....sums up the snowfall distribution this season perfectly.

Probably.  However, my 0.1" might be the total for March.

This week will likely drop my 18" pack by 1/3, and make the residual even more glacial than it is now.

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15 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Pretty much all full cover is gone around here, wooded and shaded areas have patches and sections of snow left. 

Same here...  Fields and yards are now exposed around my region of Mass...   Just shard, melt-back mangled banks remain... Parking lots have homeless already sifting through the snow pile rubble leavings .. heh. Kidding but did I see that behavior once driving by some urban blight once and it stuck in my memory. 

It's really a completely different universe out side to that 8 day consistent tundral drain pattern we just endured.  Shut that f'n faucet off already!!  Ugh... and immediately, booinnng, .... we're over 50 ...yesterday was 39 here...  We have, as of 10 to 10:30 am already reached recent MOS coverage high expectations around the region.  It's 49 to 54 so yeah

Sometimes 11 F of difference is really 50 degrees ....now is one of those times.  Ha.  Steroidal nape range in full affect -

Anyway, the open fields may assist in busting MOS over the next couple of days -

 

 

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like my snow depth is going to go to zero today finally...well maybe a "trace" since as long as you have patches in the yard, that's a trace. There has been continuous snow pack since January 26th, so a pretty good run.

We had continuous from Dec 9th through January 12th in 2017-2018 so this beats that stretch. Have to go back to 2015 I think to beat this 43 day stretch.

The previous 5 years have not been good pack winters. We had longer stretches than this in 2008-2009, 2010-2011, 2012-2013, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015.

The place I have been staying at since November has a North facing front yard that still has decent depth. Snow there since end of January as well. I expect it to take a major hit as well.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its insidiously encroaching on your backyard. Some folks may choose not to acknowledge at their own peril, but there is literature-

It sounds like Ursula from The Little Mermaid. Just this evil laugh as the 580 height line tickles Miami.

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Not sure what the recent pages of consist of but I am not buying the 00z suite ...

Has anyone noticed that the models keep sloshing between seasons, 00z and 12z ? 

strikes me as though...I wouldn't be shocked if the 12s ...if not 12, 00z or 12z tomorrow etc, just yaw back toward a warmer appeals again. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure what the recent pages of consist of but I am not buying the 00z suite ...

Has anyone noticed that the models keep sloshing between seasons, 00z and 12z ? 

strikes me as though...I wouldn't be shocked if the 12s ...if not 12, 00z or 12z tomorrow etc, just yaw back toward a warmer appeals again. 

I haven't looked at a model since March began.

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14 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Epo tanks on the eps 

20210308_200242.jpg

Lens interpretation ?  haha...

just bustin' balls a little but, that is the "Control" run that 'subjectively' tanks there...

The mean (green), which by convention is more deterministic ... is not very convincing.  

Control runs to me are dubious?  ... I admit to some ignorance as to their uses... but, those don't 'sound' like they use organic grid/initializations ( or necessarily static geophysics for that matter) to process for/in the virtual sense of projecting weather patterns.

It sounds like a parameterize-able wet dream, versions for experimental destruction of man kind under the espouses of research for lab dork purposes...

Which makes it utterly useless to deterministic everyday use, as it is allowing "what if" scenarios that are not in existence - necessarily.

But boy I'll tell you... can you imagine "George001" setting his coffee down and rolling up his sleeves at the console of that "control" ??    Jesus, we'd have a high confidence comet impact scenario in no time.

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