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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha... you know me. I have no dignity or self respect or reason to exist really so I don't give a fu -

call 'em the way I see 'em.  Right now?  I see 50/50 chance of +10 or greater suddenly transforming everywhere in a warm tsunamis as the relaxation of gradient ( seasonal ) "ALLOWS" the merely erstwhile suppressed La Nina to ( pun deliberate to annoy...    wait for it - )        "SPRING"       into a coherence rather abruptly.  

Otherwise, we go back to climo with nothing imminent on the charts until such time is something materializes if so...  But hey, I am not without compassion - that's still 50%.  And, within that 50% lurks blue bomb as part of the climatological setting.

That's the way I see it.  Climo or above, pick -

Remove the 'Matterhorn' sized +AO that barely gets back to neutral Week 2 ( which the latter is not agreed upon either ), and the neutral positive NAO, and the neutral negative PNA ... and the La Nina ...and the HC...   then I would not be posting this stuff that no one reads because it isn't placating their winter fantasies... weeeeee

Once the -EPO weakens and relax some ridging out west, we'll probably get some DSD days late month. But, I don't see the SE ridging type wamrth like what we'll have for a few days this week. I mean of 45-50 and gusty winds is good for people...have at it. Count me out with that shit. I'm thinking stretches of like 55+. 

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Just now, Cold Miser said:

Yup. 

Would have liked one more blue bomb to give me one last nighttime winter walk, and to delay the doors of April for a bit more.  But it is what it is at this point.  

I wouldn't be so sure to lock it in with Kevin. 

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Well ... dreaded discussion topic - I dunno... but, do we talk record highs Thursday and Friday ?   ...what are they - I wonder. 

The synoptic metrics seem to support, but the details within that framework may or may not - but, anytime there is a potential anomaly of any kind the sets precedence ( record territory ) we should, being the responsible, lucid objective brain trust of the public access social media's sphere ( eh hm...) give it its equal acknowledgement ... I mean, after all, we live in a participation trophy era - lol.

Anyway, the Euro may be too pessimistic with its 2-meter temps given that synoptic look, but it depends as usual, on specifics with ceiling RH, as well as wind direction.  At this time of year?  we cannot afford < than 220 wind direction or the L.I. Sound will wall off the warmth from NYC-PWM axis and points east. 

Dodging that...the WSW wind at 500, 700, 850 and surface under heights substantive enough to allow diurnal thickness expansion, all under "Equinoxial" sun strength... probably sends the actual temperatures across the region considerably higher than the 18z, 58F at Bedford's Hanscom field ob station the Euro sells them two days.  

The Euro has 850 mbs warming a tick or two every cycle going back 4 or 5 -worth.  Now, +10 to 12C ... The sky/cloud coverage tends to be too pessimistic in most guidance when the flow is deep layer continental conveyor from WSW/SW trajectories - particularly adding that this is pre-green up N of the Mason Dixie, that's also not really in a hurry to advect moisture ..so my hunch is that if the models suggest mostly cloudy you go partly sunny...  etc... 

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22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I assumed and banked on a futile March, so its baked into the C-.

There's never been a Blutowsky March at Logan.  There's always been a virga CU that at least traced to "save" those otherwise boned months of yore.

Last year was one of them... Traced the month ...

I think I saw 6 years up there on the overhead while 'milling a 10 K at the gym last week.  I got to thinkin' maybe this is a candiate year for the      0       .         0                 0     March.

This fun hypothesis is based upon several bum pumps:

1  ...  despite all the cold, it won't snow.   Persistence is a remarkable aspect when one gets into acceptance - it really sets them free of angst, actually. 

2  ...  La Nina spring, which erstwhile has not really presented.  Now... as Scott and I rightfully mused the other day, at no time has this recent cold season very convincingly demoed a La Nina hemisphere - save for the off chance that a pattern happened to (maybe..) be passing through La Nina construct in a destiny that is not..  Point being, that trend might suggest that this is not a La Nina year - just a cold Pacific water that is meaningless .. proving that arm of the climatological science of indexing has always been a falsity ... That'd be cool!  But, I think the HC shit is going to get proven over time.. just a matter of - digressing... What I'm thinking is that the La Nina may present more so now that the gradient is relaxing ...just in time to trample on the backs of the winter season bruised, that may have been hoping to get an exit swan song consolation to appease disappointment as a compensation.   Nope... no symbolic savior for you - ONE YEAR!

3  ...  HC  - blah blah

4  ...  The sun... mm hm..  Those of us that have been advancing ideas of regression back to winter, I have noted, an implicit lack of consideration for celestial mechanics - that means... the Earth going around the sun at 64, 000 mph hour is racing away from winter ...  ( do you ever think of that?  If you are standing there on a calm nape day in spring... no wind.  Warm sense.  Serenely calm and bathed in comfortability ...you and the setting are moving through space at 64,000 miles per hour.  And, that motion is also tied to a movement around the Galaxy that is ... 250,000 miles and hour...which is all moving at a separate vector of ... etc etc... )

5  ...  Indexes:   towering +AO that "might" come back to nuetral before rising again week 2...  NAO not really convincingly helpful... PNA tending to negative. 

 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Reshuffle the deck next season.

One more below average snowfall season, and I will tie the record dating back to 1956 of four consecutive below average seasons since from 1988-1989 through 1991-1992.

We had a late season snowfall last year that left me dead on avg 72", We're to far in arrears this year to have a May snow storm save us.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Reshuffle the deck next season.

One more below average snowfall season, and I will tie the record dating back to 1956 of four consecutive below average seasons since from 1988-1989 through 1991-1992.

Looks as though Boston, where records go back to 1871-1872, has two worse pork periods....1948-1949 through 1954-1955 seasons (7 consecutive below avg) and the top porker award goes to the 1907-1908 through 1914-1915 seasons (8 consecutive below average). Rumor has it that weenies were hanging themselves by thy knickers.

1910-1911 just made it as below, at 40.6", so it nearly ended at three consecutive.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks as though Boston, where records go back to 1871-1872, has two worse pork periods....1948-1949 through 1954-1955 seasons (7 consecutive below avg) and the top porker award goes to the 1907-1908 through 1914-1915 seasons (8 consecutive below average). Rumor has it that weenies were hanging themselves by thy knickers.

1910-1911 just made it as below, at 40.6", so it nearly ended at three consecutive.

What were the ENSOs in the 30 months leading each  - curiously  ... I mean, back when ENSO meant more than rat pellets

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks as though Boston, where records go back to 1871-1872, has two worse pork periods....1948-1949 through 1954-1955 seasons (7 consecutive below avg) and the top porker award goes to the 1907-1908 through 1914-1915 seasons (8 consecutive below average). Rumor has it that weenies were hanging themselves by thy knickers.

1910-1911 just made it as below, at 40.6", so it nearly ended at three consecutive.

Irish and Italian weenies coming here for a better life full of snow, moving back. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Irish and Italian weenies coming here for a better life full of snow, moving back. 

I have gone a long way towards paying my climo debt over the course of these past several seasons. I have had one above average snowfall season since 2014-2015......2017-2018. 2016-2017 was just about normal.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have gone a long way towards paying my climo debt over the course of these past several seasons. I have had one above average snowfall season since 2014-2015......2017-2018. 2016-2017 was just about normal.

The region as a whole needs to. Obviously some more than others (like myself), but it's been a snowgasm overall since 07-08 minus a few seasons. Kind of due for a meh stretch, even if it's just a string of seasons near normal.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The region as a whole needs to. Obviously some more than others (like myself), but it's been a snowgasm overall since 07-08 minus a few seasons. Kind of due for a meh stretch, even if it's just a string of seasons near normal.

Just have to hope climo finds its footing and those who should pay more, do. I'm hardly above average over that stretch, at this point.

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I remember musing in June of 2015 how if it snowed 0.0 for the next three consecutive seasons... we'd end up on climo for the 4-year mean at a lot of climate sites/ ..backyards.

No one in here thought that was funny - interestingly ...  In fact, I don't recall anyone even responded.  ...I wonder why that is...

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I remember musing in June of 2015 how if it snowed 0.0 for the next three consecutive seasons... we'd end up on climo for the 4-year mean at a lot of climate sites/ ..backyards.

No one in here thought that was funny - interestingly ...  In fact, I don't recall anyone even responded.  ...I wonder why that is...

You do a lot of musing....

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