weathafella Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 For Sey-mour snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I didn’t see 10 other than a patch in the berks. Not sure what we’re arguing about here.... Not sure either, you replied to me? Its a known fact those maps suck, Look at the map again it shows 8-10” mean across SNE when in reality the models showed a 3-6” mean across SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: For Sey-mour snow For weathafella Now you can see why those maps aren’t accurate at all. They’ve been 2-3x too high all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Telecon layout at CPC hasn't supported a regression into winter ... pretty much at all, since they began this huge AO correction 2 weeks ago. In that time, they have been joined by the neutral neg PNA and the neutral positive NAO. What we have not seen to go along with, is operational runs pretty much at any point being as warm as all that suggests they could, if not 'should,' be. The EPS may not agree... granted. Not sure what the GEFs EPO is looking like, but I suspect it is not hugely different than the EPS. Thing is, we have seen -EPO/-PNA/-NAO in the past, and that single cold signal overwhelmed. 2005 February started that way - it won't do that nearing April ... but you know - But, the EPS does change the landscape ...some. Thing is, you have to keep in mind that we are on the equinox sun when all that hits. It's a diabatic mutilation of the hemisphere and I suspect models are not really morphing the way that the reality will be morphed - ha... for lack of better way to say it. No one said otherwise, I know .. But I suggest it is possible we get this 'shot across the bow' spring balm this week, then we regress to normal climo. But hey, the upshot of our normal March 20 climo is blue bombs so... we'll see. Unless La Nina climo finally decides to show up to the party - Scott and I surmised ( half in snark ) that we have not seen a La Nina jack shit this year, despite some rather 1.5 like negative ENSO layouts... We're sort of expecting the cold return by conditioning maybe but there are still caution flags.. With out luck, it does just in time to ensure we Blutowski March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: For weathafella Now you can see why those maps aren’t accurate at all. They’ve been 2-3x too high all year. Sometimes they’re too high and sometimes low. Their snow algorithm is weird at times. I guess the take home is we may have some winter left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: Sometimes they’re too high and sometimes low. Their snow algorithm is weird at times. I guess the take home is we may have some winter left. Yes definitely some winter left. Yes this year there is something very wrong with the algorithm on stormvista it’s been way too high all year long compared to the other vendors, I know this bc MJO posts them all the time and I scratch my head every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: Sometimes they’re too high and sometimes low. Their snow algorithm is weird at times. I guess the take home is we may have some winter left. Take a week off Jerry then get the muthafukkas ready. LFG !!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 5 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Next thing really is severe wx season...crap under two months away now and not even prepared yet. Time flying fast. Only one more full month to go until we're into severe season Good luck with that,Paul. Get your exclamation points ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: You would never make it at GYX. They love that stuff. That's more appropriate if aimed at PWM TV mets, at least when on camera. Not thrilled at seeing the 12z GFS op for AUG showing 0.01" total thru March 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, tamarack said: That's more appropriate if aimed at PWM TV mets, at least when on camera. Not thrilled at seeing the 12z GFS op for AUG showing 0.01" total thru March 23. More of the same pattern we have been in for 45 days now basically. I am guessing the synoptic precip and cold air will finally arrive by mid-April, just in time to be useless. Basically in spring skiing mode now and thinking about summer. I have kinda given up on getting another nice synoptic snowstorm. Pattern is just too hostile. Maybe some more upslope will come through next week when the temps get a little colder, not holding my breath for more than the usual inch or two. Hoping for a surprise to freshen the pack after it takes a beating this week. This winter felt short to me, with the delayed start and apparent early end. Basically, winter was January 1 through the end of February with some pockets in December of winter-like conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 51 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: Take a week off Jerry then get the muthafukkas ready. LFG !!! Lol....Florida now so yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 I would love to see a day 11 operational euro just for schitts & gigles.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 40 to 50 degree anomaly shift in 60 hrs is pretty impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 40 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I would love to see a day 11 operational euro just for schitts & gigles.... Check out the para Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 18z GFS is cute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z GFS is cute. Fits the seasonal pattern perfectly. Should verify. Enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z GFS is cute. ha, start at 1-2 feet....always can go up as we get closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Followed up with another a few days later....SW CT, bullseye with over 40 inches, lol...tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z GFS is cute. Ala 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup they and they posters can say no thanks all they want.. that they don’t want a huge TOR or massive cane hit.. Internally they all really do want No means yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Gefs is starting to show hits 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 29 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Fits the seasonal pattern perfectly. Should verify. Enjoy! Looks reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: There is no way he doesn’t like violence. He was trying to tell me on Twitter last fall that he didnt want a harsh winter bc of covid.... #fullofshit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: He was trying to tell me on Twitter last fall that he didnt want a harsh winter bc of covid.... #fullofshit I saw that. We went back and forth a bit in March 2018 during those damaging storms. I think as a more prominent OCM, you just can’t go out there and publicly wish for damage like Kevin does. I think it’s almost taboo, but shit.....that’s exactly why I got into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is starting to show hits Hits from the bong in cruiser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I saw that. We went back and forth a bit in March 2018 during those damaging storms. I think as a more prominent OCM, you just can’t go out there and publicly wish for damage like Kevin does. I think it’s almost taboo, but shit.....that’s exactly why I got into it. Ryan does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 41 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is starting to show hits Gefs just moved north about 200 miles from 12z lol congrats CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Looking at the upper levels for on the European and Canadian models it appears that the 14th-16th threat will go to our west and rain due to the northern stream digging into Montana. That is a great snow setup for Wisconsin due to how early the trough goes negative, but not here. The Canadian is similar with the southern steam hanging back, and the northern stream diving into Montana tilting the trough negative out west. If you extrapolate the navy, it is similar to the Euro and Canadian as it has the southern stream hanging back, which would give the northern stream more time to dig out west and phase, tilting the trough negative and causing the storm to Cut to our west and give Wisconsin a blizzard. The gfs is the only model that has snow here due to the streams staying separate. The upper air pattern on the euro, navy, and Canadian do not support this solution so I am going to go with the better models and lean towards a warmer and rainier solution. However, it appears that the 20th time period looks better. During that time period the models bring the polar vortex south into central canada, which would allow for northern stream energy to drop more into the Midwest than Montana. Even if somehow the garbage Gfs was right with the upper air pattern, that upper air pattern does not support a blizzard for the 14th-16th timeframe due to the lack of northern stream. There is no mechanism to bring cold air in, that’s a rain to Canada setup. In March purely southern stream won’t cut it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: More of the same pattern we have been in for 45 days now basically. I am guessing the synoptic precip and cold air will finally arrive by mid-April, just in time to be useless. Basically in spring skiing mode now and thinking about summer. I have kinda given up on getting another nice synoptic snowstorm. Pattern is just too hostile. Maybe some more upslope will come through next week when the temps get a little colder, not holding my breath for more than the usual inch or two. Hoping for a surprise to freshen the pack after it takes a beating this week. This winter felt short to me, with the delayed start and apparent early end. Basically, winter was January 1 through the end of February with some pockets in December of winter-like conditions. Nah your winter lasts until May, where I live in SE mass snow chances are long gone by mid April, but It has snowed even as late as June before up in northern New England (very unusual though). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 30 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Gefs just moved north about 200 miles from 12z lol congrats CNE Not the point The point is a wintry period is heading our way for a brief time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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