CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 The October derecho was great locally. But man it’s been a snooze fest I feel like over the last 10 years for whatever reason. I did miss a microburst in 2017 by a mile though and just missed the two good events to my west last year, but fairly quiet overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This will not be squashed Pattern sort of supports a strung out POS at that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Sort of an interesting thought experiment is what happens if we continue to see these really warm SSTs in the warm season in Long Island Sound and the Atlantic. Better beach time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pattern sort of supports a strung out POS at that time. Its March , not January. I doubt this will be suppressed. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Meat grinder to cutter pattern...rinse and repeat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Is there that much difference between 3-6 and 4-8 on a clown map for 15 days? 8-10” compared to 3” ya pretty big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its March , not January. I doubt this will be suppressed. If it ends up being suppressed it will be only the 2nd or 3rd time since the Mayflower landed that a storm was suppressed to the south of New England during the month of march... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 Hopefully we get more than a tropical corpse like Isis was. The good news is that the more time that goes by without a cat 2 or greater into HVN, the closer we are to getting it to happen. Yes I know that sounds like Kevin. Yes I would like to see that happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully we get more than a tropical corpse like Isis was. The good news is that the more time that goes by without a cat 2 or greater into HVN, the closer we are to getting it to happen. Yes I know that sounds like Kevin. Yes I would like to see that happen. The vast majority of posters here feel our way. We are just more vocal about it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully we get more than a tropical corpse like Isis was. The good news is that the more time that goes by without a cat 2 or greater into HVN, the closer we are to getting it to happen. Yes I know that sounds like Kevin. Yes I would like to see that happen. Can't stop it, but count me out. I was amazed by the tree damage caused by a middling tropical storm last summer. Cat 2+ would be a total nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully we get more than a tropical corpse like Isis was. The good news is that the more time that goes by without a cat 2 or greater into HVN, the closer we are to getting it to happen. Yes I know that sounds like Kevin. Yes I would like to see that happen. The gambler's fallacy? Well not quite as the chances of a Cat 2 strike will probably increase due to AGW. Not significantly so but enough to possibly make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 I want a hurricane up here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Can't stop it, but count me out. I was amazed by the tree damage caused by a middling tropical storm last summer. Cat 2+ would be a total nightmare. Honestly, I would never want damage to my house or anyone for that matter. But, the meteorologist in me certainly wants to experience it. I certainly didn't get into this field because I got off on partly sunny skies and 75F. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The vast majority of posters here feel our way. We are just more vocal about it. Most mets do too. Obviously you can't tout that on platforms like Twiiter etc because it doesn't look good from a moral basis, but biatch please.....most mets are here because of some event that left them in awe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Honestly, I would never want damage to my house or anyone for that matter. But, the meteorologist in me certainly wants to experience it. I certainly didn't get into this field because I got off on partly sunny skies and 75F. You would never make it at GYX. They love that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 hour ago, rimetree said: Meat grinder to cutter pattern...rinse and repeat Yep, story of the winter and no reason to expect that to change. I'm sure I will get the cold and wound-up coastals pattern I want in late May and early June. Inches of chilly rain coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You would never make it at GYX. They love that stuff. I know at least two forecasters that do like violence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Pattern sort of supports a strung out POS at that time. When has the pattern not supported a strung-out POS this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Ice skaters on the West River in Brattleboro today. Impressive for March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 some will lie out of moral obligation, but deep down crave a '38. Take that to the bank 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Ice skaters on the West River in Brattleboro today. Impressive for March. Kind of a weird perspective shot. Almost looks like small figurines on the ice with the camera like 10 inches away. Maybe it's just me. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 8-10” compared to 3” ya pretty big difference. I didn’t see 10 other than a patch in the berks. Not sure what we’re arguing about here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Kind of a weird perspective shot. Almost looks like small figurines on the ice with the camera like 10 inches away. Maybe it's just me. LOL My friend shot that earlier from the Marina restaurant in Brattleboro. I’m sure it’s a cheap cell phone shot. I travel with a Nikon super zoom in the car at all times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Most mets do too. Obviously you can't tout that on platforms like Twiiter etc because it doesn't look good from a moral basis, but biatch please.....most mets are here because of some event that left them in awe. Yup they and they posters can say no thanks all they want.. that they don’t want a huge TOR or massive cane hit.. Internally they all really do want 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: The October derecho was great locally. But man it’s been a snooze fest I feel like over the last 10 years for whatever reason. I did miss a microburst in 2017 by a mile though and just missed the two good events to my west last year, but fairly quiet overall. Yep we got smoked by that derecho here on 10/7/20. Lost power and some trees came down in the neighborhood. But obviously that was kind of an odd setup being so late in the season. Not your classical “severe season” set up. Definitely aided by stronger kinematics in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Yeah... ha, guess it's a bit much to ask machine guidance (MOS) to exceed climo by more than 15 F some five days in advance. MEX is over 60 Thursday and Friday for KFIT, 'ASH and 'BED ...where/whence climo is 43 to 46 F by then at those sites... MOS is weighted more heavily toward climate - at least that used to be the case .. - out in time. The idea there is, getting a 63 at KFIT for Friday when climate is 43 ...that's probably pressing the ceiling of what that product is even capable of allowing... In other words, that's pretty strong warm signal. More than mere 'nape' but a goodly margin, too. That 49 at KBED on Wednesday. nah,...there's no reason to assess KFIT as warmer than KBED ( 53 ) with a wind going WSW under the zenith of dry equinoxial sun. There's likely stat anomaly in there I think. 53 on Wed ( otherwise ) is 10 F over climo D3 ... So, adding the 2-m parcel explosive adiabatic profiling ... probably is over 60. Here's the thing - I've seen it be nearly 60 F over a snow pack in late February at the bottom of 540 thickness under full sun. Here, we are passing 550 dm with mixing on a deep laminar WSW trajectory and I have bare fields opening up around here as a testament to the sun's power - it really has not been snow melt weather. I dunno... maybe the very lowest slope temperature is even higher. I must admit... even I forget what the sun is like now. It's blazing hot despite the lingering air chill - I don't know why this early temperature fight interests me.. It's tedious, I know - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 FWIW, EPS still looking interesting post-ides. This is prob the first “chance”. OP wasn’t loving it but EPS shows how it could success...sort of like how the GFS does it. You have a southern stream wave on the heels of that northern stream cold shot. Time it perfectly right into that cold airmass The other chances would likely come a few days later when it tries to go more classic western ridge/eastern trough look 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: FWIW, EPS still looking interesting post-ides. This is prob the first “chance”. OP wasn’t loving it but EPS shows how it could success...sort of like how the GFS does it. You have a southern stream wave on the heels of that northern stream cold shot. Time it perfectly right into that cold airmass The other chances would likely come a few days later when it tries to go more classic western ridge/eastern trough look Yeah there’s still a regime there to fit something in after next week outlined as you said. That really hasn’t changed much on the ensembles. It’s possible our best chance is as you head later into the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Honestly, I would never want damage to my house or anyone for that matter. But, the meteorologist in me certainly wants to experience it. I certainly didn't get into this field because I got off on partly sunny skies and 75F. Eric Fisher??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Eric Fisher??? There is no way he doesn’t like violence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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