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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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The October derecho was great locally. But man it’s been a snooze fest I feel like over the last 10 years for whatever reason.  I did miss a microburst in 2017 by a mile though and just missed the two good events to my west last year, but fairly quiet overall. 

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Hopefully we get more than a tropical corpse like Isis was. The good news is that the more time that goes by without a cat 2 or greater into HVN, the closer we are to getting it to happen. Yes I know that sounds like Kevin. Yes I would like to see that happen. 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully we get more than a tropical corpse like Isis was. The good news is that the more time that goes by without a cat 2 or greater into HVN, the closer we are to getting it to happen. Yes I know that sounds like Kevin. Yes I would like to see that happen. 

The vast majority of posters here feel our way. We are just more vocal about it. 

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34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully we get more than a tropical corpse like Isis was. The good news is that the more time that goes by without a cat 2 or greater into HVN, the closer we are to getting it to happen. Yes I know that sounds like Kevin. Yes I would like to see that happen. 

Can't stop it, but count me out. I was amazed by the tree damage caused by a middling tropical storm last summer. Cat 2+ would be a total nightmare.

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36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully we get more than a tropical corpse like Isis was. The good news is that the more time that goes by without a cat 2 or greater into HVN, the closer we are to getting it to happen. Yes I know that sounds like Kevin. Yes I would like to see that happen. 

The gambler's fallacy?

Well not quite as the chances of a Cat 2 strike will probably increase due to AGW. Not significantly so but enough to possibly make a difference.

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Can't stop it, but count me out. I was amazed by the tree damage caused by a middling tropical storm last summer. Cat 2+ would be a total nightmare.

Honestly, I would never want damage to my house or anyone for that matter. But, the meteorologist in me certainly wants to experience it. I certainly didn't get into this field because I got off on partly sunny skies and 75F. 

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The vast majority of posters here feel our way. We are just more vocal about it. 

Most mets do too. Obviously you can't tout that on platforms like Twiiter etc because it doesn't look good from a moral basis, but biatch please.....most mets are here because of some event that left them in awe. 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly, I would never want damage to my house or anyone for that matter. But, the meteorologist in me certainly wants to experience it. I certainly didn't get into this field because I got off on partly sunny skies and 75F. 

You would never make it at GYX. They love that stuff.

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Kind of a weird perspective shot. Almost looks like small figurines on the ice with the camera like 10 inches away. Maybe it's just me. LOL

My friend shot that earlier from the Marina restaurant in Brattleboro.  I’m sure it’s a cheap cell phone shot. I travel with a Nikon super zoom in the car at all times.

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Most mets do too. Obviously you can't tout that on platforms like Twiiter etc because it doesn't look good from a moral basis, but biatch please.....most mets are here because of some event that left them in awe. 

Yup they and they posters can say no thanks all they want.. that they don’t want a huge TOR or massive cane hit.. Internally they all really do want 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The October derecho was great locally. But man it’s been a snooze fest I feel like over the last 10 years for whatever reason.  I did miss a microburst in 2017 by a mile though and just missed the two good events to my west last year, but fairly quiet overall. 

Yep we got smoked by that derecho here on 10/7/20. Lost power and some trees came down in the neighborhood. 

But obviously that was kind of an odd setup being so late in the season. Not your classical “severe season” set up. Definitely aided by stronger kinematics in October.  

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Yeah... ha, guess it's a bit much to ask machine guidance (MOS) to exceed climo by more than 15 F some five days in advance.

MEX is over 60 Thursday and Friday for KFIT, 'ASH and 'BED ...where/whence climo is 43 to 46 F by then at those sites...  

MOS is weighted more heavily toward climate - at least that used to be the case .. - out in time.   The idea there is, getting a 63 at KFIT for Friday when climate is 43 ...that's probably pressing the ceiling of what that product is even capable of allowing... In other words, that's pretty strong warm signal.  More than mere 'nape' but a goodly margin, too.

That 49 at KBED on Wednesday.  nah,...there's no reason to assess KFIT as warmer than KBED ( 53 ) with a wind going WSW under the zenith of dry equinoxial sun.  There's likely stat anomaly in there I think.    53 on Wed ( otherwise ) is 10 F over climo D3 ... So, adding the 2-m parcel explosive adiabatic profiling ... probably is over 60.   Here's the thing - I've seen it be nearly 60 F over a snow pack in late February at the bottom of 540 thickness under full sun.  Here, we are passing 550 dm with mixing on a deep laminar WSW trajectory and I have bare fields opening up around here as a testament to the sun's power - it really has not been snow melt weather.  I dunno... maybe the very lowest slope temperature is even higher.  I must admit... even I forget what the sun is like now. It's blazing hot despite the lingering air chill -

I don't know why this early temperature fight interests me.. It's tedious, I know -

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FWIW, EPS still looking interesting post-ides. 

This is prob the first “chance”. OP wasn’t loving it but EPS shows how it could success...sort of like how the GFS does it. You have a southern stream wave on the heels of that northern stream cold shot. Time it perfectly right into that cold airmass

image.png.654b7cb75b70d779625a70235a57a41a.png

 

The other chances would likely come a few days later when it tries to go more classic western ridge/eastern trough look

image.png.6306fe4d20d2c7d6a36193214da749d3.png

image.png.7c17050b8a1d0ab9943a96308ef64835.png

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

FWIW, EPS still looking interesting post-ides. 

This is prob the first “chance”. OP wasn’t loving it but EPS shows how it could success...sort of like how the GFS does it. You have a southern stream wave on the heels of that northern stream cold shot. Time it perfectly right into that cold airmass

image.png.654b7cb75b70d779625a70235a57a41a.png

 

The other chances would likely come a few days later when it tries to go more classic western ridge/eastern trough look

image.png.6306fe4d20d2c7d6a36193214da749d3.png

image.png.7c17050b8a1d0ab9943a96308ef64835.png

Yeah there’s still a regime there to fit something in after next week outlined as you said. That really hasn’t changed much on the ensembles. It’s possible our best chance is as you head later into the month. 

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