March 2021 Weather Discussion

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think Boston is barely ahead

Central Park 38.6”, Boston 38.4”. Photo finish FTW. My backyard’s at about 40” on the nose. 

[PhineasC]

7 with light snow. Last taste of winter for a week at least. 

[NorEastermass128]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Central Park 38.6”, Boston 38.4”. Photo finish FTW. My backyard’s at about 40” on the nose. 

Neck and neck, but then BOS scores 12 in the final minutes of the season. 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Neck and neck, but then BOS scores 12 in the final minutes of the season. 

Probably.  

[weathafella]

53 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Neck and neck, but then BOS scores 12 in the final minutes of the season. 

NYC as of now should be considered way ahead given the sizable climo difference.   Also, most of us in the area are now 50+.   I’m at 54.8.

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NYC as of now should be considered way ahead given the sizable climo difference.   Also, most of us in the area are now 50+.   I’m at 54.8.

Nyc smoked bos in the feb 1 event. Very few times will Central Park get 17 and Boston less then 1. That’s where the difference lies 

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

NYC as of now should be considered way ahead given the sizable climo difference.   Also, most of us in the area are now 50+.   I’m at 54.8.

41” here in Brooklyn, NY. 12” above average 

[ice1972]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

NYC as of now should be considered way ahead given the sizable climo difference.   Also, most of us in the area are now 50+.   I’m at 54.8.

Who cares when half of that got grinched away.....what a terrible thing that was.....very negative 

[Fozz]

7 hours ago, PhineasC said:

It really tells the tale. All those storms went south and SE Mass STILL failed to cash in... LOL

Definitely the DC of this subforum. 

SE Mass averages less than 40” for a reason. Too many coastal fronts, warm intrusions, and precip issues.

[Torch Tiger]

victory

Given such a strong signal for temperatures to overperform, have
used the 90th percentile of guidance for forecast highs for Tuesday
and Wednesday while the maximum of guidance for Thursday. Should
there be more sun than clouds on Thursday, would not be surprised to
see upper 60s or even a few 70 degree readings especially in the CT
River valley and Merrimack Valley, which tends to see temperatures
overperform due to downsloping. Forecast wise, we have mid to upper
50s on Tuesday, upper 50s to low 60s for Wednesday and low to mid 60
s for Thursday. As with a stout southwest flow, locations away from
the immediate coast will be warmest with coastal locations around 10
degrees cooler due to cold SSTs. Low temperatures overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday as well as overnight Wednesday into Thursday are also
adjusted using the 75th percentile of guidance as warm air advection
continues in earnest. It is not out of the question that we could
see 60s on Friday as well, especially locations in Eastern MA and
RI, especially if the wind shift does not occur till the afternoon
hours and the sun can break out following morning precipitation.
Then it looks like much cooler but seasonable temperatures for the
weekend.

[Damage In Tolland]

Snower vanished 

[moneypitmike]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snower vanished 

fire up the lawn thread

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, Fozz said:

SE Mass averages less than 40” for a reason. Too many coastal fronts, warm intrusions, and precip issues.

Depends how you define it. Closer to the cape may average near 40” or less. Interior SE MA has had a decent winter. 

[CoastalWx]

Mid month and beyond are still the periods to watch. That hasn’t changed. Looks like New England has potential there. 

[CoastalWx]

Next week we nape.

[CoastalWx]

11 hours ago, PhineasC said:

It really tells the tale. All those storms went south and SE Mass STILL failed to cash in... LOL

Definitely the DC of this subforum. 

That’s also the years where SE MA got annihilated at some point, so that graphic is misleading. 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s also the years where SE MA got annihilated at some point, so that graphic is misleading. 

We tried to tell um

[dendrite]

9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Interesting night as retro low has cranked the winds again but also shot up dewpoints making it feel warmer.

My dew of 2° feels great.

Wish that weather was here. 9.8° this morning with wind. El sucko. 

[ORH_wxman]

12 hours ago, PhineasC said:

How is that possible after like 5 storms in a row scraped under SNE? Is the snow climo there that hostile?

Feb 1-2 is pretty obvious on that map. Look just west of BOS where the positive departures are. 

Also, the fact that they are still below climo snow despite those other storms like 2/7 and 2/19 means their “climo” is actually the opposite of hostile...it’s because it’s a 12 year mean on that map....2009-2020. Those were very kind years to SE MA. They prob averaged over 20” for February during that stretch. 

If that map was based on like 1981-2010, they prob wouldn’t have negative departures. 

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Good point. Makes those positive anomalies for many in SNE even more impressive.  Solid February.

Yep, the 128 belt back to ORH had 30”+ for the month of February. 

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Depends how you define it. Closer to the cape may average near 40” or less. Interior SE MA has had a decent winter. 

I could've sworn that ORH_wx's map had Taunton in the 35-40" range, unless I'm recalling incorrectly.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

My dew of 2° feels great.

Wish that weather was here. 9.8° this morning with wind. El sucko. 

Dew Drop Inn

[PhineasC]

I wonder if some NNE sites can make a run at record low snowfall for March? Looks like at least half of the month will go by with basically zilch.

[Typhoon Tip]

Since I'm the one that ultimately coined the expression 'nape' as a means to describe a sensible atmospheric setting ... allow me this moment:

Next week is not 'nape' weather.   Next week...is a swath of (attempting) anomalously warm weather - ..the extent of which to be determined/contingent upon the usual synoptic suspects that are typically not handled at this range.  Nape is a very narrow, and fragile circumstance(s) that create a 'faux' warmth appeal amid a chilly truth. That specifically is the 'spirit' of that. 

We've all felt this... Picture the scene, one closes their front door behind them. Their edifice faces south from late February on ... It's 12:34 pm Saturday. The temperature is 44 F.  The sky is > 90% unfiltered by cloud contamination. And the wind is at or near calm.   In that moment, those variables overwhelmi, creating a kind of bubble.  Inside of which is a false impression about the day's actual piece of shitness annoying chill.  And there's some relativity to climate and calendar there too... 52 in April... 62 in May... etc..  But their needs to be nearly unabated insolation, and very light wind.   Nape weather is fragile -

Nape, in its original conception and use in turn of phrase some ten or whatever years ago... is related to 'faux' comfortability created by 'nook' effect amid otherwise chilly atmosphere.  The sun is crucial.  Having nearly no wind is crucial.  The fragility of 'nape' affect cannot be underscored. As the sun dims, and the wind motion increases, the toleration shatters very quickly.  Nape is actually a hard sensible appeal to maintain.

Next weeks packed pressure contouring from the western TV to NE region, creating flag taut, white noise in the barren oak, early season shot across the bow ... is more like "fake" mild and really the wind causes it to be annoying.   I would take 'nape' over that any day. 

If it ends up 70 on Thrursday like NWS said ( and we really should make that temperature ..their reasoning notwithstanding )but this just seems like the atmosphere has developed a 'Gaia' conscious that is in f-u mode, and will take a mild look and fennagle a way to make it garbage.  I'm almost waiting for the misty warm sector that pulls off feeling cold because of it.  Oh, we'll find a way to delay the diffused warm front arrival - despite having SW vectors at every level ( ooh, one of my favorites! ).   Or...the impulse over the Lakes suddenly intrudes sending a polar front mooshing through the 'warm sector' 24 to 30 hours ahead of the original synoptic appeal of that period toward the end of the week.  In fact ..that's probably a 'fast flow'  HC compressED auto-correction anyway, snark aside.

By the way, all S/W beyond D6 are still erroneously amplified ... just like they have been in all models, all cold season, almost all the time.   Bear that in mind when your tying off your bicep, slapping your forearm, and getting ready to insert the weather chart needle. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

I could've sworn that ORH_wx's map had Taunton in the 35-40" range, unless I'm recalling incorrectly.

My map has BOX right about 40” for average. Granted, I made the map like over a decade ago. You could probably add a couple inches to the long term average there given how ridiculous the 2010s were there. I’d probably drag that 40” contour a solid 10-15 miles southeast if I included the 2010s  

 

[TalcottWx]

11 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Central Park 38.6”, Boston 38.4”. Photo finish FTW. My backyard’s at about 40” on the nose. 

Boston wins no matter what, because it's not new York 

[PhineasC]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Since I'm the one that ultimately coined the expression 'nape' as a means to describe a sensible atmospheric setting ... allow me this moment:

Next week is not 'nape' weather.   Next week...is a swath of (attempting) anomalously warm weather - ..the extent of which to be determined/contingent upon the usual synoptic suspects that are typically not handled at this range.  Nape is a very narrow, and fragile circumstance(s) that create a 'faux' warmth appeal amid a chilly truth. That specifically is the 'spirit' of that. 

We've all felt this... Picture the scene, one closes their front door behind them. Their edifice faces south from late February on ... It's 12:34 pm Saturday. The temperature is 44 F.  The sky is > 90% unfiltered by cloud contamination. And the wind is at or near calm.   In that moment, those variables overwhelmi, creating a kind of bubble.  Inside of which is a false impression about the day's actual piece of shitness annoying chill.  And there's some relativity to climate and calendar there too... 52 in April... 62 in May... etc..  But their needs to be nearly unabated insolation, and very light wind.   Nape weather is fragile -

Nape, in its original conception and use in turn of phrase some ten or whatever years ago... is related to 'faux' comfortability created by 'nook' effect amid otherwise chilly atmosphere.  The sun is crucial.  Having nearly no wind is crucial.  The fragility of 'nape' affect cannot be underscored. As the sun dims, and the wind motion increases, the toleration shatters very quickly.  Nape is actually a hard sensible appeal to maintain.

Next weeks packed pressure contouring from the western TV to NE region, creating flag taut, white noise in the barren oak, early season shot across the bow ... is more like "fake" mild and really the wind causes it to be annoying.   I would take 'nape' over that any day. 

If it ends up 70 on Thrursday like KTAN said ( and we really should make that temperature ..their reasoning notwithstanding )but this just seems like the atmosphere has developed a 'Gaia' conscious that is in f-u mode, and will take a mild look and fennagle a way to make it garbage.  I'm almost waiting for the misty warm sector that pulls off feeling cold because of it.  Oh, we'll find a way to delay the diffused warm front arrival - despite having SW vectors at every level ( ooh, one of my favorites! ).   Or...the impulse over the Lakes suddenly intrudes sending a polar front mooshing through the 'warm sector' 24 to 30 hours ahead of the original synoptic appeal of that period toward the end of the week.  In fact ..that's probably a 'fast flow'  HC compress auto-correction anyway, snark aside.

By the way, all S/W beyond D6 are still erroneously amplified ... just like they have been in all models, all cold season, almost all the time.   Bear that in mind when your tying off your bicep, slapping your forearm, and getting ready to insert the weather chart needle. 

Haven't felt these tingles since I read Dominion for the 3rd time last night. 

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Mid month and beyond are still the periods to watch. That hasn’t changed. Looks like New England has potential there. 

The regional call out with, "New England"  . I like the vagueness. Could be a cape scraper, could be a Bangor Basher, could be a green mountain mauler...Just be sure to tune in next week for more.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

The regional call out with, "New England"  . I like the vagueness. Could be a cape scraper, could be a Bangor Basher, could be a green mountain mauler...Just be sure to tune in next week for more.

Well I mean we really can’t get any more detailed that far out. But next week is a tease.

[512high]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I mean we really can’t get any more detailed that far out. But next week is a tease.

Going with Scott's hint, friend just came down to my shop, saw the plow equipment and said you putting that crap away? lol, I said stays on all the equipment till at least April 1 or so, he said I bet you $10.00 you wont plow a storm for the rest of the season.........I took the bet, I said 2" or more I have to go out per contracts, he stated "50s most of next week' i said perhaps, but what about the rest of the month....? He said he will be back April 1st to get his $10.00 ( lol I'm a cheap Greek he ain't getting crap!)

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 1-2 is pretty obvious on that map. Look just west of BOS where the positive departures are. 

Also, the fact that they are still below climo snow despite those other storms like 2/7 and 2/19 means their “climo” is actually the opposite of hostile...it’s because it’s a 12 year mean on that map....2009-2020. Those were very kind years to SE MA. They prob averaged over 20” for February during that stretch. 

If that map was based on like 1981-2010, they prob wouldn’t have negative departures. 

Yep, the 128 belt back to ORH had 30”+ for the month of February.