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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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12 minutes ago, George001 said:

I have a ranking for the models that I’m somewhat familiar with

 

tier 1- Euro

tier 2- Canadian, navy, href 

tier 3- ukmet, nam, srefs, rgem

tier 4- icon, kma, Jma, Brazilian metrogram, Australian, hrrr, rap

tier 5- deep thunder

tier 6- gfs, para

In my opinion all models tier 4 and worse are garbage and aren’t even worth looking at other than purely for entertainment. Tier 3 is ok, horrible models to use on their own but can be decent in niche situations (Nam is decent for picking up warm layers in marginal setups 24 hours out, ukmet can be decent with upper level pattern but not surface temps, ect). Tier 2 is when you start getting into respectable models that are worth blending more heavily into your forecast, though the forecaster should take their flaws into account and adjust for them. Eg Href is the best short range model, navy has an se bias but is great at sniffing out storm tracks in the medium range, ect). Tier 1 is the euro, which is the best model by far. It is the best model there is in the long range for sniffing out patterns and it isn’t close. It is also a great model in the medium and short range, right up until the storm is over your head. It does over amplify and slow the southern branch down too much at times in the medium range, so that has to be taken into account when making a forecast. For ensembles vs op when making this ranking I include the entire suite in the ranking, as the ensembles share similar characteristics to the OP. They are pretty much what you get if you take the OP run and run it 20+ times with minute changes to the upper air pattern each one. This makes ensembles more useful in the long range where minute upper air changes in the short term lead to massive changes in the long term. In the medium and short range, the higher resolution OP is better. 

In the long range (8+ days out) I like an 80% european 20% Canadian blend, in the medium range (3-7 days out) I like a 50% European/30% Canadian 20% Navy blend, and in the short range I like a 30% European/20% HREF/15% Canadian/15% Navy/20% a blend of Tier 3 models of choice depending on which model is best for the setup we are in. This short range blend definitely needs the most work as I have been noticing many of my short range forecasts are busting due to me picking the snowiest short range models and blending them. My long and medium range system has been decent, but the short range is more of a work in progress as I am realizing that when I give myself room to pick my weenie bias leads to me picking the snowiest models even when it isn’t justified.

Who are you?

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18 minutes ago, George001 said:

I have a ranking for the models that I’m somewhat familiar with

 

tier 1- Euro

tier 2- Canadian, navy, href 

tier 3- ukmet, nam, srefs, rgem

tier 4- icon, kma, Jma, Brazilian metrogram, Australian, hrrr, rap

tier 5- deep thunder

tier 6- gfs, para

In my opinion all models tier 4 and worse are garbage and aren’t even worth looking at other than purely for entertainment. Tier 3 is ok, horrible models to use on their own but can be decent in niche situations (Nam is decent for picking up warm layers in marginal setups 24 hours out, ukmet can be decent with upper level pattern but not surface temps, ect). Tier 2 is when you start getting into respectable models that are worth blending more heavily into your forecast, though the forecaster should take their flaws into account and adjust for them. Eg Href is the best short range model, navy has an se bias but is great at sniffing out storm tracks in the medium range, ect). Tier 1 is the euro, which is the best model by far. It is the best model there is in the long range for sniffing out patterns and it isn’t close. It is also a great model in the medium and short range, right up until the storm is over your head. It does over amplify and slow the southern branch down too much at times in the medium range, so that has to be taken into account when making a forecast. For ensembles vs op when making this ranking I include the entire suite in the ranking, as the ensembles share similar characteristics to the OP. They are pretty much what you get if you take the OP run and run it 20+ times with minute changes to the upper air pattern each one. This makes ensembles more useful in the long range where minute upper air changes in the short term lead to massive changes in the long term. In the medium and short range, the higher resolution OP is better. 

In the long range (8+ days out) I like an 80% european 20% Canadian blend, in the medium range (3-7 days out) I like a 50% European/30% Canadian 20% Navy blend, and in the short range I like a 30% European/20% HREF/15% Canadian/15% Navy/20% a blend of Tier 3 models of choice depending on which model is best for the setup we are in. This short range blend definitely needs the most work as I have been noticing many of my short range forecasts are busting due to me picking the snowiest short range models and blending them. My long and medium range system has been decent, but the short range is more of a work in progress as I am realizing that when I give myself room to pick my weenie bias leads to me picking the snowiest models even when it isn’t justified.

 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Who are you?

 

62141605.jpg

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1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

Is soil dry up there? Oxford Ma had a large brush fire on I 395 yesterday and Uxbridge Ma has one now on Rt 146

Don't need dry soil for "spring" fires, just the revealing of last season's dead grass/leaves.  Soil below could be soaked or even frozen while the surface litter blazes.

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Firstly ...the Euro operational referenced earlier really wasn't a back-door front.

People call every tom dick and hair hung boundary in the area a BD...-

BDs happen because of certain synoptic mechanics.   What happens is, you'll observe a S/W impulse that streaks SE through Ontario and toward NS... Behind it, there is a plume of +PP that sweeps at first S through Maine, then... turns SW enhanced to do so by the cold ocean GOM ...adding density to the air mass ..assist momentum and rolls until that extinguishes ...usually 10 mile SW of Kevin's back patio just to put some stank on it.

That's why when true BD fronts cut into SE NH and NE MA ... and sweep to the Worcester Hills ( eventually...) folks claim to smell the ocean behind the boundary... and, why in April and May it can be shockingly obtrusively colder air. ...etc..  The over top distinction is that it comes in from the NE -  front and flow behind the front.  I've seen it drop from 80 to 48 at KBED while PF and Brian are still 80 in some extreme cases... That's not what that Euro is doing - not even close.

That thing on the Euro is a front that sweets in NW and then pivots across the area ...effectively becoming a warm boundary that demarcates polar lingering winter from ( probably ) too much heat in the M/A

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It’s looking like for the next week the polar vortex is locked over the North Pole with mild pacific air flooding the country, allowing temps to rise into the 60s even up in New England. European guidance says 60s next week, then maybe a couple snow threats the week after. I know it may seem crazy to think we will get snow threats after several days of 60s, but that is not unheard of especially in mid to late March in southern New England. 

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