CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Shouldn't easonal change be a modulating force there ? if the EPS is right about the EPO burst in the foreground, I'm not sure seasonal modulation makes that a safe assumption for afterward ... because, it is not just seasonal change that has me scratching my head. Longer termed pre-existing and ongoing super synoptic signals ( La Nina and HC ... ) don't really support it either. I've been hammering that I know ...but it's unfortunately true. It's not a metric in deterministic forecasting techniques as much as it is a "synergistic" awareness as to what can happen from that - So I guess what I'm getting at as that I don't have much confidence that we are set up for a nice winter assumption ...like this "enabling" EPS is presently fighting off those signals. Yeah, yeah...we've had blizzards in April too. I'll tell you though..it's baffling. The La Nina climate... The HC stuff... the GEFs... seeming to have telecon layout that looks at this time more like those signals ... yet, the EPS won't, and the operational runs also won't. To me that is an epic indicator battle - 00z GEFS sort of had that -EPO look too like the EPS. Maybe some slight differences in details, but yeah that would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Looks chilly and active for the EOM period. Might as well as try and get a snow event out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Shouldn't easonal change be a modulating force there ? if the EPS is right about the EPO burst in the foreground, I'm not sure seasonal modulation makes that a safe assumption for afterward ... because, it is not just seasonal change that has me scratching my head. Longer termed pre-existing and ongoing super synoptic signals ( La Nina and HC ... ) don't really support it either. I've been hammering that I know ...but it's unfortunately true. It's not a metric in deterministic forecasting techniques as much as it is a "synergistic" awareness as to what can happen from that - So I guess what I'm getting at as that I don't have much confidence that we are set up for a nice winter assumption ...like this "enabling" EPS is presently fighting off those signals. Yeah, yeah...we've had blizzards in April too. I'll tell you though..it's baffling. The La Nina climate... The HC stuff... the GEFs... seeming to have telecon layout that looks at this time more like those signals ... yet, the EPS won't, and the operational runs also won't. To me that is an epic indicator battle - Taking a stab at the EPO part tho ... that looks like a direct EPS response to the MJO ...but the MJO is in negative/destructive interference trying to move momentum through Phase 8 ..and to me that's interesting. It could be the the flow relxation of seasonal change is sort of physically "allowing" more MJO exertion to begin registering - even though the winter MJO suppression was true, it may not be AS true... Not sure I follow...you saying you don't believe the cold dump because of the background La Nina? I suppose it could fail...it's not an overwhelming signal yet though it has been trending more pronounced each run. I don't know how "wintry" it would be anyway unless we get a precip event out of it. As you know, this time of the year you can be 44F under clear skies despite 522 thicknesses. The sun is just too strong....but if you have precip falling in the same column, it's 21F blowing snow off your roof. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not sure I follow...you saying you don't believe the cold dump because of the background La Nina? I suppose it could fail...it's not an overwhelming signal yet though it has been trending more pronounced each run. I don't know how "wintry" it would be anyway unless we get a precip event out of it. As you know, this time of the year you can be 44F under clear skies despite 522 thicknesses. The sun is just too strong....but if you have precip falling in the same column, it's 21F blowing snow off your roof. No ... I as talking about the afterward period ... the assumption/or expectation that the settling flow will just go into a western ridge after that "EPO burst" ... The combination of seasonal modulation WITH those background signals ...doesn't support that in my mind. It may though - I was thinking, we didn't exactly polish a very La Nina February, either... So perhaps that part of it is just not that factor-able. As far as the EPO its self ... I am wondering if the MJO may be "more able" to register a forcing in the flow as we are entering less gradient - window of forcing opportunity? something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Wow a repeat of February... great. 20" snowpack for NJ on Easter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Wow a repeat of February... great. 20" snowpack for NJ on Easter? Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: No ... I as talking about the afterward period ... the assumption/or expectation that the settling flow will just go into a western ridge after that "EPO burst" ... The combination of seasonal modulation WITH those background signals ...doesn't support that in my mind. It may though - I was thinking, we didn't exactly polish a very La Nina February, either... So perhaps that part of it is just not that factor-able. As far as the EPO its self ... I am wondering if the MJO may be "more able" to register a forcing in the flow as we are entering less gradient - window of forcing opportunity? something like that This whole season has not behaved like Nina it seems. I haven't looked, but maybe the tropical forcing is playing around with the Pacific and giving rise to some western ridging as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Good, Let them have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Good, Let them have it. SNE sleds while you get the tomato garden ready? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: SNE sleds while you get the tomato garden ready? Sledding pretty much done for me this year, We will get the boat ready, Memorial Day weekend the garden goes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 Yikes, Erin Go Diamondcutters on the GFS op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This whole season has not behaved like Nina it seems. I haven't looked, but maybe the tropical forcing is playing around with the Pacific and giving rise to some western ridging as modeled. Yeah I know - tell me 'bout it. Although, I might leave out the "...it seems," and opt for 'at any point in time', instead - Which for my own hypothesis bank, it's consistent with the ENSO model damping idea - forcing and losing correlative relationship at decadal scales ( ...so gradually losing...). The idea therein, the HC is absorbing it too deeply such that the thermal presentation/physics in the ocean-atmospheric coupled sense ...is become too removed from the gradient of the westerlies. If there is not detection there ...there can be no/less forcing - The ENSO states do not "mean" automatically x-y-z just because they exist. There has to be geo-physical circuitry, and what seems completely intuitive and obvious to say, ...that is connected in gradient ... seems to escape people in everyday practice. Summary: If the HC has engulfed(ing)(s) the termination latitude of the ENSO ... those state are disconnecting its ability to influence the westerlies - I think we are seeing that ..I had this discussion with Ray last summer about the dwindling El Nino thing ... and we were wondering if the same holds true/observable in the La Nina's ... Interesting, we immediately have a winter that did that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Watch the door next week. We may never torch 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 We try to hold back the door, but that can be like a thumb over a garden hose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: We try to hold back the door, but that can be like a thumb over a garden hose. Mentioned that in several posts and they said wasn’t a door look. Poor Tippy’s nape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mentioned that in several posts and they said wasn’t a door look. Poor Tippy’s nape It's the op run. Not sure I would lock it in. Nape on for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: It's like that scene on superman when he throws them into the glass pane and sends them into space. That's what i want to do with those models. Maybe the Para too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's the op run. Not sure I would lock it in. Nape on for now. Wouldn’t op runs pick up on it more so than ensembles ? We worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mentioned that in several posts and they said wasn’t a door look. Poor Tippy’s nape OH ... I'm almost expecting the pattern to verify and SNE to eat shit while that success is happening - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's like that scene on superman when he throws them into the glass pane and sends them into space. That's what i want to do with those models. Maybe the Para too. lol, Could have put a few more on there but needed another rocket stage................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 How long does this "ides" period last? A week? Longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Just now, 8611Blizz said: How long does this "ides" period last? A week? Longer? If it happens ... ? probably all summer - 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 41 minutes ago, dryslot said: Probably a bad idea for us to risk having first contact with an advanced alien race being them seeing runs of the CMC, UKMET, and NAVGEM. Very high likelihood they would see us as non-sentient ants and target Earth for orbital strip mining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Watch the door next week. We may never torch We never said we can't eventually door. Tue-Thu look nice...Fri/Sat is a tossup. We pray to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Hope someone near NYC breaks 70F next week! Let's go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 15 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Will it still be a piece of shit when that happens ? 16 is beating the Euro at day 10 1000mb temp lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 I have a ranking for the models that I’m somewhat familiar with tier 1- Euro tier 2- Canadian, navy, href tier 3- ukmet, nam, srefs, rgem tier 4- icon, kma, Jma, Brazilian metrogram, Australian, hrrr, rap tier 5- deep thunder tier 6- gfs, para In my opinion all models tier 4 and worse are garbage and aren’t even worth looking at other than purely for entertainment. Tier 3 is ok, horrible models to use on their own but can be decent in niche situations (Nam is decent for picking up warm layers in marginal setups 24 hours out, ukmet can be decent with upper level pattern but not surface temps, ect). Tier 2 is when you start getting into respectable models that are worth blending more heavily into your forecast, though the forecaster should take their flaws into account and adjust for them. Eg Href is the best short range model, navy has an se bias but is great at sniffing out storm tracks in the medium range, ect). Tier 1 is the euro, which is the best model by far. It is the best model there is in the long range for sniffing out patterns and it isn’t close. It is also a great model in the medium and short range, right up until the storm is over your head. It does over amplify and slow the southern branch down too much at times in the medium range, so that has to be taken into account when making a forecast. For ensembles vs op when making this ranking I include the entire suite in the ranking, as the ensembles share similar characteristics to the OP. They are pretty much what you get if you take the OP run and run it 20+ times with minute changes to the upper air pattern each one. This makes ensembles more useful in the long range where minute upper air changes in the short term lead to massive changes in the long term. In the medium and short range, the higher resolution OP is better. In the long range (8+ days out) I like an 80% european 20% Canadian blend, in the medium range (3-7 days out) I like a 50% European/30% Canadian 20% Navy blend, and in the short range I like a 30% European/20% HREF/15% Canadian/15% Navy/20% a blend of Tier 3 models of choice depending on which model is best for the setup we are in. This short range blend definitely needs the most work as I have been noticing many of my short range forecasts are busting due to me picking the snowiest short range models and blending them. My long and medium range system has been decent, but the short range is more of a work in progress as I am realizing that when I give myself room to pick my weenie bias leads to me picking the snowiest models even when it isn’t justified. 2 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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