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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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Well, looks like the storm threat next week is dead. I thought the models would start to bring it back today, but if anything they got even worse. The navy got a rid of the low so now all 3 models that I use don’t have a low. It appears that my forecast for next week is going to bust big time. The pattern initially looked good, but we look to be getting unlucky with the placement of the polar vortex. Its too far south so it will squash the storm. At least we have threats to track though, it’s not like the polar vortex is going to sit over the North Pole for all of March. It looks like it will head to the pole for 10 days or so before we get more chances for major nor’easters in the second half of March. On the long range models after the warm up I notice that they are breaking off pieces of the polar vortex and they are coming into central and eastern Canada. The MJO also appears to be going into the cold phases at a high amplitude, which should allow for a couple more chances before spring climo takes over. With both the Atlantic and the pacific drivers looking to become more cooperative in the 2nd half of March, we are not out of the woods yet despite getting unlucky with the polar vortex squashing the storm threat next week. 

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Someone on the west slope into J.Spin’s area looks to be getting smoked. Cold air mass slamming moisture into the mountains.  

That escalated into like a deform band type radar echoes real fast.  Snowing on this side now too.

Lower level scan so Mountains blocking some of the radar beams.

B143341E-C76D-4871-9408-BEB4BC140B15.gif.b74adde9cbc4dac114b8032e5f056ba6.gif

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I posted an EPS image from day 8, and day 7 was also mild. Not an op run. Saturday there shown is too far out and the EPS has a front overhead. 

Anyways, the synoptic look is mild for sure, but it is day 7-8 so things may change. However, it doesn't have that door look like we all know and loathe. We'll see what happens near mid month. 

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