ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 That is a near-record cold shot on the GFS for early next week. Other guidance isn't buying it though. At least not that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think you are onto something with the bookends becoming more severe at the expense of mid winter....and if you think about it, may tend to expand the ceiling for high end events due to increased baroclinicity....lends itself to increased frequency of blockbusters. Not only are we getting warmer, and injecting more energy into the atmosphere, but as mother nature tries to compensate for that by shearing storms with a greater frequency....the ones that do succeed are more likely to occur early or late in the season, when the compressed flow is less likely to be an issue and potential is already higher relative to the seasonal nadir. Like the way you put that ... but, that 'compensating' IS the velocity from increased gradient between the Ferril latitudes and the HC...etc..etc... I have to be honest about something... I remember making an early risk assessing post/series therein about snow at the end of October this last autumn. It was in part telecon timing wrt to the timing of the operational "cadence" - or rhythmic oscillations ... you sort of get a feel for that if you're an Aspergery loner like myself ...lol... joking - ..least I think. But in all honestly, it was also utilizing that booked premmy and lag aspect as a "working theory" due to it's recent many seasons of reduxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 39 minutes ago, George001 said: 2014-2015 is the best winter I have ever seen in my life. Tons of Miller B blizzards. However the polar vortex was more elongated into Canada that year. This March on the models the polar vortex isn’t only over the North Pole but it’s strong and consolidated, which is more like 2011-2012 and last years pattern. That’s a cancel winter pattern. Well, I am not suggesting that March will feature a February 2015 pattern....my point is that +AO is not prohibitive to mid latitude winter weather. Its a curve ball, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Like the way you put that ... but, that 'compensating' IS the velocity from increased gradient between the Ferril latitudes and the HC...etc..etc... I have to be honest about something... I remember making an early risk assessing post/series therein about snow at the end of October this last autumn. It was in part telecon timing wrt to the timing of the operational "cadence" - or rhythmic oscillations ... you sort of get a feel for that if you're an Aspergery loner like myself ...lol... joking - ..least I think. But in all honestly, it was also utilizing that booked premmy and lag aspect as a "working theory" due to it's recent many seasons of reduxing. Yea, I understand....what I mean is that its almost as though the planet has a built in safety valve (increased gradient owed to HC expansion) to avoid weekly blizzards in the face of global warming. I remember that prescient thread...great pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That is a near-record cold shot on the GFS for early next week. Other guidance isn't buying it though. At least not that extreme. Eps pops a negative NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: Don’t you do that to Mama Cass Too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I understand....what I mean is that its almost as though the planet has a built in safety valve (increased gradient owed to HC expansion) to avoid weekly blizzards in the face of global warming. I remember that prescient thread...great pattern recognition. That's the thing about this year as we enter this spring and so would be the "lag" counter-part to this facet - I wonder if the combined ( so constructive interference ...) that "might" ( emphasize might - ) exist between the La Nina and the HC, could offset offset that, which has become almost dependable as a weird mid spring blocking plague ... You now, 2018 was this phenomenon incarnate. That was an ENSO neutral year...so even though modestly cool and warm ENSO variance ( I believe ) are almost muted out of contention anyway, that pretty much removes much doubt of whether it was irrelevant leading that spring, yet...we had the screaming hemisphere - probably almost entirely owing to the Boreal perennial winter compressed against this HC shit... What happens? Flow relaxes in March, atmosphere sloshes into a blocking for 3 weeks... boom. As far as the built in... I see that all the time in nature. Unrelated, but it reminds me of a sci fi novel idea I have about Gaia's "war on Humanity" ... Fight the enemy where they are not from Sun Tzu - basically ..the idea is, assess where the enemy is weak, before the war begins, and you play that 'virtual' or null space like it's actual chess piece in the conflict. What happens...or emerges to fill the space, invariable "becomes" a detriment to the enemy. I may not have that exactly right by concept but it seems like that's what the strategy is about... Anyway, I have noticed that the two most guilty civilities in the total anthropomorphic Carbon footprint are, China and the United States ( the latter trailing by some percentage - but percentages are missleading because... American has 350 million Carbon pigs ... but Chine has 1.7 billion...so, per capita - we are by and large the loudest snorters in the hog trough ). What is ironic - as a kind of transcendental protagonism specter more than a descrete form, if you will... - is that these two societies are being placated by NOT sensibly "feeling" the impacts of GW as readily and horrifically as it is being felt among cultures that are less guilty - that's fair... While of course, we squabble across geodetic boundaries of right's to usage and percentage culpability. There's an interesting catch-22 there - human culpability and morality/ethics/virtues ... those purely centric distinctions. Nature? they don't matter to nature. You either are or are not C02'ing the f* out of the future, for everyone. No further doctrine bears any relevancy beyond the fact.. The read would spend a goodly number of pages with character development, and some wit and a lot of boring sociology climatology mash up ... But all the while, this hiding the direct "feel" aspect? there are two metaphors that come to mind: The first is the toad in the boiling water.. If toss a frog in a boiling pot it immediately leaps out. If put the frog in the pot when the water is cold and slowly heat it to boiling, you end up cooked frog. The other metaphor is like GW in this way is turning the oven up to the clean cycle - basically ... burning the gunk out of the system. Gaia is protecting our right to eliminate us as a primary infectious agent by use turning up that dial for her. I'm sorry - it's a slow work day ...I know these are long folks. just musing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That is a near-record cold shot on the GFS for early next week. Other guidance isn't buying it though. At least not that extreme. Son of GFS isn't nearly that cold either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's the thing about this year as we enter this spring and so would be the "lag" counter-part to this facet - I wonder if the combined ( so constructive interference ...) that "might" ( emphasize might - ) exist between the La Nina and the HC, could that offset the what has become almost dependable as a weird mid spring blocking plague ... You now, 2018 was this phenomenon incarnate. That was an ENSO neutral year...so even though modestly cool and warm ENSO variance ( I believe ) are almost muted out of contention anyway, that pretty much removes much doubt of whether it was irrelevant leading that spring, yet...we had the screaming hemisphere - probably almost entirely owing to the Boreal perennial winter compressed against this HC shit... What happens? Flow relaxes in March, atmosphere sloshes into a blocking for 3 weeks... boom. As far as the built in... I see that all the time in nature. Unrelated, but it reminds me of a sci fi novel idea I have about Gaia's "war on Humanity" ... Fight the enemy where they are not from Sun Tzu - basically ..the idea is, assess where the enemy is weak, before the war begins, and you play that 'virtual' or null space like it's actual chess piece in the conflict. What happens...or emerges to fill the space, invariable "becomes" a detriment to the enemy. I may not have that exactly right by concept but it seems like that's what the strategy is about... Anyway, I have noticed that the two most guilty civility in the total anthropomorphic Carbon footprint are, China and the United States ( the latter trailing by some percentage - but percentages are missleading because... American has 350 million Carbon pigs ... but Chine has 1.7 billion...so, per capita - we are by and large the loudest snorters in the hog trough ). What is ironic - as a kind of transcendental protagonism specter more than a descrete form, if you will... - is that these two societies are being placated NOT to sensible "feel" the impacts of GW as readily and horrifically as it is being felt among cultures that are less guilty - that's fair... The read would spend a goodly number of pages with character development, and some wit and a lot of boring sociology climatology mash up ... But all the while, this hiding the direct "feel" aspect? there are two metaphors that come to mind: The first is the toad in the boiling water.. If toss a frog in a boiling pot it immediately leaps out. If put the frog in the pot when the water is cold and slowly heat it to boiling, you end up cooked frog. The other metaphor is like GW in this way is turning the oven up to the clean cycle - basically ... burning the gunk out of the system. I'm sorry - it's a slow work day ...I know these are long folks. just musing It was actually weak la nina...but, yea...ENSO was not a huge player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was actually weak la nina...but, yea...ENSO was not a huge player. Haha ...yeah, a little voice in there when I typed that sounded something like, "...he's gon' jump on this statement I fear" ...I thought so? but wasn't sure. I figured it for less relevant either way. right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Haha ...yeah, a little voice in there when I typed that sounded something like, "...he's gon' jump on this statement I fear" ...I thought so? but wasn't sure. I figured it for less relevant either way. right I only even remembered because that was probably my best outlook....nailed that sucker- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That is a near-record cold shot on the GFS for early next week. Other guidance isn't buying it though. At least not that extreme. Lol 5 days ago it had the beginning of March a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: No more cutter on the GFS Trending to be a weak and SE POS, what a surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: Son of GFS isn't nearly that cold either. Yeah, old GFS is tossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: That is a near-record cold shot on the GFS for early next week. Other guidance isn't buying it though. At least not that extreme. Yeah agreed - ...mused snarkly a while ago about the GFS's propensity to lower cold tropospheric features too far as it is. I don't have a problem with a deep trough intrusion and a 'snappy' cold face smack ... but I don't know if we need Antarctic depths to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Nothing like a 192 hour GGEM snow event to get the loins tingling. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 4 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: Don’t you do that to Mama Cass Ha ha, apocryphal story anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol 5 days ago it had the beginning of March a furnace. GFS op has had that early March cold on about 2/3 of the runs I've seen over the past week. The other1/3 has been different, sometimes much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 The winter of 2017-2018 was actually a moderate La Niña, it peaked at -1.0 degrees Celsius going by ONI, and -1.3 degrees celcius going by MEI. By MEI the 2017-2018 La Niña was actually high end moderate, borderline strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 So consensus is major SNE snowstorm next Weds March 3rd then? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nothing like a 192 hour GGEM snow event to get the loins tingling. You know we're in a lull or nearing the end of winter when metfan continually has to resort back to d8 storms on obscure models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, George001 said: The winter of 2017-2018 was actually a moderate La Niña, it peaked at -1.0 degrees Celsius going by ONI, and -1.3 degrees celcius going by MEI. By MEI the 2017-2018 La Niña was actually high end moderate, borderline strong. Incorrect. 1.0 is marginal weak/moderate, but MEI peaked at .77...decidedly weak. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/data/meiv2.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Symbolically ... yesterday's minoring event appealed to me like a March thing. Today, sun is fighting through a milk sky and it's still managed 44 here. It's like with open blue it woulda torched MOS for 4 or 5 I bet... I thought tomorrow would be nape day #1 but I think that's today. Tomorrow gets to be #2 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Incorrect. 1.0 is marginal weak/moderate, but MEI peaked at .77...decidedly weak. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/data/meiv2.data It has -1.29 as the peak on both your chart and this one, though it peaked in March/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, George001 said: It has -1.29 as the peak on both your chart and this one, though it peaked in March/April. What does the MEI in April have to do with the preceding winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 How did the 2015-2016 super el nino suck, we had such an awesome set up in Feb 2015. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Torch! Matt is going out on a real limb by saying the we are almost through the worst winter period....that can be said just about every year at this time. In following Matt's lead I am also going out on a limb. I think by late August we will be through the worst summer period. ...just a hunch...... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Torch! Lol...the worst of winter is behind us, tell us something we don’t know Noyes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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