March 2021 Weather Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Judging by how March looks, I'm going to end up below average snowfall and above avg temps for the season, so I'm not sure what element of the "overall appeal" I neglected to consider. I'm all ears....I think a C- is pretty fair...if March suprises, then it goes up.

I understand s of the pike did better, but I don't live there...obviously the grade there is higher.

Depends upon what one is using I suppose ...

There numerical equivalence of the teleconnectors from CPC ... don't match the individual members

If you go to PSU as a free, quick and dirty coarse review, and float your mouse over those members, http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/ensloopnew.html,  individually, they don't look as warm as a CPC index site. Yet the latter keeps signaling spring 

Frustrating...  particularly for someone like me, that really would like to comfortably get out of the house.  But I'm highly confident that is more ubiquitously shared.

Longish post beyond this point ...

It's not the same as that bag-o psycho babble aspect of being moody and emotively guided by the weather chart cinema - not even in the same concept. Different subject... Strictly, this year is particularly and uniquely challenging coming into dreadful New England "spring" climate...  

There are four season on the planet, and since New England has three  ...clearly, we are in hell and not part of this planet.  We have autumn, winter, Caligula torture .. terminating into a summer stolen down to 10 minutes.  

Seriously, it has to do with a more normal, human response in any scenario where personal freedoms are being affected - whether for virtuous cause and benevolence aside.   This pandemic shit is imposing based upon a catch-22, philosophically. But that philosophy is a damned good one!

We've spent close to a million years in human evolution ... where/when freedoms "inside our safe zones" did not include these masks ... nor distancing ..etc..  We are not intrinsically adaptive for not having processed through any 'Darwinian' crucible there in - in evolutionary time comparison, this is like the time it takes to pick up a hot handle. 

It is therefor not in our genetics - literally that is true.  What we do is purely a cerebral move, one that proves human ingenuity/brain-trust ...probably higher sentience and 'awareness' in general, have all outpaced Nature's normal  'testing' process of adaptation.

It's true across the board.   From math to Mozart, telescopes to microscopes, Quantum Mechanics to General Relativity, Genetics research, to deep field Astronomical Sciences and back ...these 'achievements,'  what we are now doing both to our selves and the total Earth "Gaia" ... they are inherently in conflict with the "rate" it takes to get adaptation through those Darwinian gates.

Thus, self- imposed ( 'species' imposing in this context) limitations on personal freedom are still just limitations on personal freedom. At the instinctual level .. the virtuosity and "experimentation" that is felt utterly necessary ...all that, is in conflict - nothing else. 

You know... a million years of instinct momentum ... c'mon.  It's obviously gonna win against the conceit of of these limitations ... That's why for this 'soft revolt.'   ... You can see it in the way society is sort of turning nose from the subtle aroma of hypocrisy going on..   States began alleviating restrictions when this thing was  like 10 minutes past that monster peak 45 days ago... etc ..etc.. People are getting more sick of it than that which they fear - that usually emboldens through anger ... The inevitable, systemic tough shitness modality takes place. 

People are going to get sick and die, but the majority won't and it's getting precariously close to a scenario where the instinct will supplant this ideology that we can win against a biological force that has had 3 billion years to perfect its self.  That's what these variances are from - btw ... They are the virus fighting back through mutation ... Eventually, they'll figure out a combination of DNA codes that gets by any vaccine ''fire-wall" and we'll just go through this all over again... We vaccinate for the Spanish flu ....every year, anew.  They are called genomic ancestors:   Influenza-A and Influenza-B ...  Coronavirus is not getting defeated ... it's changing into something else.  But, the upshot there is that they usually mutate into a less virulent forms - it doesn't ultimately favor a virus' pathogenicity to kill the host. 

Anyway... it feels like the Rubin 'The Hurricane' Carter's story, where he was wrongfully imprisoned by systemic racism in southern cultural Law, and they stole like 40 years of his life ... and every time we wake up and that Euro has pushed that D9 warm up out another day, and held the trough back and inserted another ( non-entertaining...) -20 C 850 mb cold dildo instead, it's just another in the innumerable failed appeal processes that proved insufficient against the systemic racist.  Finally, ... after his life was all be claimed, an appeal succeeded... I guess that's our 10 minutes of summer in this dark metaphor.

[dendrite]

What a shit day. 35° DZ

I’d rather have 25° and sun.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scarves on napes?

The girls at Fox Hall can rest easy.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The girls at Fox Hall can rest easy.

Lol.. Disc golf courses doors slammed shut and frisbees violently knocked down from strong NW winds

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Your closer, But not a whole lot better there.

The goods are below Boston's latitude.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The goods are below Boston's latitude.

I already know our outcome when the Mid Atlantic is having a great winter, Snow in DC, Is no snow for me.

[tamarack]

30 minutes ago, dryslot said:

72" avg and i'm at 45.6" to date.

90" and 51" here.  If March continues the way the models are showing the first half, "F" would not be low enough for the month.  Maybe a "J" and instead of a zero score for the month, a -2?  Normally, I give points for cold wx, but this year, this late, snowless cold becomes a negative.  And the massive cheap evening high coming for tomorrow adds disappointment.  7A-7A obs times will likely be something like 13/-1 here but the records will instead show something like 37/-1 as the CAA may not get working until late evening.  Winter thru Feb is running D+, so only way I'd get below D/D- would be to allow subjective frustration to pull the formulaic numbers downward.

Edit: Cold RA here, fortunately light (0.11" thru 7 AM).  Started as IP.  Nice

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah true. Who knows though...this season has not acted like  Nina. 

With the exception of the prevalent RNA....regardless of the precise causation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I already know our outcome when the Mid Atlantic is having a great winter, Snow in DC, Is no snow for me.

1995-1996 was very rare.

Actually, DC only has like 5".....snow in northern j-o-i-s-e-y, is no snow for me lol

[Ginx snewx]

People giving up on March may be in for a surprise come mid month. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

90" and 51" here.  If March continues the way the models are showing the first half, "F" would not be low enough for the month.  Maybe a "J" and instead of a zero score for the month, a -2?  Normally, I give points for cold wx, but this year, this late, snowless cold becomes a negative.  And the massive cheap evening high coming for tomorrow adds disappointment.  7A-7A obs times will likely be something like 13/-1 here but the records will instead show something like 37/-1 as the CAA may not get working until late evening.  Winter thru Feb is running D+, so only way I'd get below D/D- would be to allow subjective frustration to pull the formulaic numbers downward.

The snowfall distribution was the inverse of what I actually thought, as I expected more NE and less SW....but it worked out so that my numbers were still pretty good in SNE and the lower mid atlantic. Your area and the northern mid alt is the big face--plant.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

People giving up on March may be in for a surprise come mid month. 

Yeah some signs near mid month. Gets tougher though without a decent cold supply. I don't see anything like good blocking or +PNA...although am noting some higher heights near Hudson Bay and NE Quebec. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995-1996 was very rare.

Actually, DC only has like 5".....snow in northern j-o-i-s-e-y, is no snow for me lol

We'll usually do well when northern NJ does and DC doesn't (see 2000-2001, 2004-2005, 2010-2011, etc). You need something more M.A.-centric like 2009-2010 or '78-'79 to screw us when N NJ gets it.

We do get the occasional dud when they do well and DC doesn't....2003-2004 comes to mind. This year for you as well, but not for just south of you. ORH is solidly above normal and so am I. BOS is doing ok, but them getting skunked in 2/1 is hurting their overall numbers. 128 belt has done well.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

90" and 51" here.  If March continues the way the models are showing the first half, "F" would not be low enough for the month.  Maybe a "J" and instead of a zero score for the month, a -2?  Normally, I give points for cold wx, but this year, this late, snowless cold becomes a negative.  And the massive cheap evening high coming for tomorrow adds disappointment.  7A-7A obs times will likely be something like 13/-1 here but the records will instead show something like 37/-1 as the CAA may not get working until late evening.  Winter thru Feb is running D+, so only way I'd get below D/D- would be to allow subjective frustration to pull the formulaic numbers downward.

Edit: Cold RA here, fortunately light (0.11" thru 7 AM).  Started as IP.  Nice

Just a little more salt in the wound, Been RN here all morning.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

With the exception of the prevalent RNA....regardless of the precise causation.

Yeah...and it's layered -  sorry I'm bombing you with replies ...just happened to be in the roulette timing right now .. lol

But, I see this winter as being supplanted by the -AO ..which at times ...spanning some three weeks in late Jan into early/mid February... plumbed to -6! It was book-ended on the front end by another negative phase of its own; both of these nadirs negative towered some -4 to even -6 standard deviations.

That is a helluva lot of implied exertion down to middle latitudes, ... I suspect in greater proportion modulating the hemispheric eddy into something that ... yeah, doesn't look like it was ENSO attributed. The problem is...with HC packed down underneath ( hyperbole..), that made for intriguingly weird scenarios where blocking rested at times over fast flow - that is a very highly unusual, and equally non-discussed characterization that took place a lot actually. 

But here's the 'layering' aspect.  I don't know if merely removing the -AO would suddenly evince an underpinning La Nina characterization, either.  We've had this discussion... I think the general even NON AO hemisphere ( as in normal boreal winter) heights .. pressing down upon the empirically proven expanding HC shit... that's been modulating ENSO 'efficacy' if you will in forcing .. even if we removed the AO I'm not sure the La Nina would be exposed because of the ongoing circumstance...

I had mused/posited that the spring could flip more dramatically warmer ...at a minimum, definitively AN... whence the AO relaxed?  That relaxation has come and passed and we are not seeing that happen.  It's interesting... This La Nina is not interested in taking over... 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We'll usually do well when northern NJ does and DC doesn't (see 2000-2001, 2004-2005, 2010-2011, etc). You need something more M.A.-centric like 2009-2010 or '78-'79 to screw us when N NJ gets it.

We do get the occasional dud when they do well and DC doesn't....2003-2004 comes to mind. This year for you as well, but not for just south of you. ORH is solidly above normal and so am I. BOS is doing ok, but them getting skunked in 2/1 is hurting their overall numbers. 128 belt has done well.

Yes, its been frustrating for this season. Gradient just south of me...I'm over it, at this point....but this is what I was getting at all season when people kept trying to tell me that it was only an event or two. The only event that I didn't get boned was 2/1.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

37 minutes ago, dryslot said:

72" avg and i'm at 45.6" to date.

Yea. 60% of normal places it in the ratter bucket imo. Maybe the bucket just above it?

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We'll usually do well when northern NJ does and DC doesn't (see 2000-2001, 2004-2005, 2010-2011, etc). You need something more M.A.-centric like 2009-2010 or '78-'79 to screw us when N NJ gets it.

We do get the occasional dud when they do well and DC doesn't....2003-2004 comes to mind. This year for you as well, but not for just south of you. ORH is solidly above normal and so am I. BOS is doing ok, but them getting skunked in 2/1 is hurting their overall numbers. 128 belt has done well.

Yeah I was just going to say, 128 belt even interior SE areas doing well (Walpole etc). Honestly it was just 2/1 around here that hurt, but that was a biggie to miss. It's been a weird season looking at New England. You can't really say this is an interior winter or NNE winter. It's been small geographical regions doing well. Hippy's area is meh, but Dave is doing ok. Just average  near BOS but above average just inland. Good winter in interior RI and along the CT coastline, maybe near avg or a tad above by Kevin's area. Then you get to near Ray on N and NE and it's been below average, but darn good over in srn VT up to just north of Killington.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. 60% of normal places it in the ratter bucket imo. Maybe the bucket just above it?

That is pretty close, IMO....I average about 10" less than he does, and mid 30's is just about rat territory for me...especially when visibility of the southern horizon is fuzzy all season due to snowfall.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah some signs near mid month. Gets tougher though without a decent cold supply. I don't see anything like good blocking or +PNA...although am noting some higher heights near Hudson Bay and NE Quebec. 

Changes seem afoot

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. 60% of normal places it in the ratter bucket imo. Maybe the bucket just above it?

No, Its in the ratter bucket, And doesn't matter what falls from here on out, Snow retention is one of my highest grade factors and those numbers would have had to come in Jan-Feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I was just going to say, 128 belt even interior SE areas doing well (Walpole etc). Honestly it was just 2/1 around here that hurt, but that was a biggie to miss. It's been a weird season looking at New England. You can't really say this is an interior winter or NNE winter. It's been small geographical regions doing well. Hippy's area is meh, but Dave is doing ok. Just average  near BOS but above average just inland. Good winter in interior RI and along the CT coastline, maybe near avg or a tad above by Kevin's area. Then you get to near Ray on N and NE and it's been below average, but darn good over in srn VT up to just north of Killington.

Its because the area from me to (especially)Jeff has been boned both ways....left high-and dry(er) by the shredder, and rained on with the couple of huggers that nailed VT.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We'll usually do well when northern NJ does and DC doesn't (see 2000-2001, 2004-2005, 2010-2011, etc). You need something more M.A.-centric like 2009-2010 or '78-'79 to screw us when N NJ gets it.

We do get the occasional dud when they do well and DC doesn't....2003-2004 comes to mind. This year for you as well, but not for just south of you. ORH is solidly above normal and so am I. BOS is doing ok, but them getting skunked in 2/1 is hurting their overall numbers. 128 belt has done well.

Yea, 40N through n NJ into our area is usually in the same miller B cluster...I was just tailoring his play on words to suite this season.

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I already know our outcome when the Mid Atlantic is having a great winter, Snow in DC, Is no snow for me.

DC hasn’t  done to well..it’s north of there going up into Jersey and PA.  But ya...it’s been bad for you there this season. Feel for ya brotha. :-(

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Changes seem afoot

Feet taken out from under you?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

DC hasn’t  done to well..it’s north of there going up into Jersey and PA.  But ya...it’s been bad for you there this season. Feel for ya brotha. :-(

I felt like you this winter having to trailer to ride ha ha.

[tamarack]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. 60% of normal places it in the ratter bucket imo. Maybe the bucket just above it?

Variance as % of average is less here than in most of SNE, so anything <70% is a ratter unless there's extenuating circumstances, like a lifetime-best blizzard.  Since the Farmington co-op has been under 50% only twice in 128 winters (79-80 and 80-81), that level would require a more emphatic label.  My suggested terminology:
<50%:  @%#&*#!!!
50-70%   Ratter
70-95%:   Below normal
95-105%:   Near normal
105-125%   Above normal
125-150%:   Great winter
>150%:   Epicosity  (Ginx trademarked)

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I wonder if the March 9/10 ordeal may try to come back ...

I could almost see it coming back - also - as a spring cut-off drifter over the W. Atl/ astride the EC ... too.   I mean it's still way out there ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No, Its in the ratter bucket, And doesn't matter what falls from here on out, Snow retention is one of my highest grade factors and those numbers would have had to come in Jan-Feb.

The factors are different up there, agree. Here it is more about total snow but retention and when the snow falls plays a role too. We are also more susceptible to a one storm skew. If Feb1-3 didn’t occur, I’d be close to a ratter with less than 30”. But alas, it did happen and the following 20 days where memorable with continuous little snowers. Still have some pack left but the mud is starting to show...so it is all a distant memore by now.

[Fozz]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

DC hasn’t  done to well..it’s north of there going up into Jersey and PA.  But ya...it’s been bad for you there this season. Feel for ya brotha. :-(

DC did poorly but the north and west suburbs of both DC and Baltimore did a lot better. One guy in Carroll county (northwest of Baltimore) has over 50” for the season.