March 2021 Weather Discussion

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

On Rains to Maine’s?

 

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS had big changes overnight and has -NAO back for first week of Morch 

Timeframe to watch 

[Go Kart Mozart]

The fat lady may have choked on her ham sandwich last night.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

One last hurrah first week of March then it’s on to golf and baseball. 

[mahk_webstah]

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS had big changes overnight and has -NAO back for first week of Morch 

I think with long significant blocking episodes there’s also what i call an echo pattern of blocking returning for periods over a few weeks before it finally ends. Guidance doesn’t handle that well.

[mahk_webstah]

20 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The fat lady may have choked on her ham sandwich last night.

Don’t you do that to Mama Cass

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

One last hurrah first week of March then it’s on to golf and baseball. 

Snowman19 gave me a weenie icon

Lets see how many times he will be wrong? So far it has been a terrible winter for him. 

[MJO812]

Baroclinic is also trolling me =(

[moneypitmike]

10 hours ago, mreaves said:

That’s why other than ski slopes, April is generally a useless month up here. Sometimes the uselessness lingers into May. 

Nothing sucks more than spring in the Midcoast. We long for June.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snowman19 gave me a weenie icon

Lets see how many times he will be wrong? So far it has been a terrible winter for him. 

Eps looked like an East based nao with a 50/50 low. It looks brief so that’s our best shot at something significant. 

[SnoSki14]

59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS had big changes overnight and has -NAO back for first week of Morch 

Could be a fluke run though Euro has MJO running through 8-1 in March. 

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Could be a fluke run though Euro has MJO running through 8-1 in March. 

That's  the big wildcard

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Could be a fluke run though Euro has MJO running through 8-1 in March. 

I vote fluke for now, though, there has been an occasional storm signal for early March.

[PhineasC]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats 

That's the look I have been waiting for since November. 200+ hours for it to turn into a Jersey blizzard and then OTS, plenty of time!

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Could be a fluke run though Euro has MJO running through 8-1 in March. 

mm yeah, it's modest though.  Also, a passage not supported in the present hemispheric mode- destructive interference.  It would be interesting to see if that succeeds / .. or even if so, if there's a very noticeable hemispheric response - it could struggle to maintain coherency on that left side of the RMM...but that struggle is equatable to not influencing the pattern just as well.   

The MJO wave phenomenon has always been a conditional additive.  NCEP routinely uses language like, 'constructively interfering' in context of both negative and positive when describing it's presence, when in circumstance ..it is either asynchronous or synchronous against the on-going back-drop hemisphere.  When it is constructively interfering (in the positive ) its really like almost what are called 'non-linear' or "synergistic" responses. You know ... sometimes in nature ... 2+2 = 5?  Atmospheric 'rogue wave' as a metaphor.  Anyway, the resulting pattern can be rather extreme.  Phase 8 MJO + recurving typhoon + Asian eddy forcing the WPO negative ... look out!  Likely to send the Pacific into a tall meridian structured flow probably presaging a severing into ridge nodes ( blocking) near Alaska given time...etc..  

In the other direction, nada... Not only can the resulting pattern not represent the MJO is even there, the wave its self seems to 'bounce off' or routinely decay along the Phase space boundaries within those RMM diagrams without actually progressing through. 

This season?  These late Phase 7 into 8, thru 1 .. 2... that entire left side is in negative interference. I'm not sure I see why that is different suddenly, and why the Euro necessarily will be correct in that. It's own EPS mean is less emphatic about actually getting a coherent wave power outside that inner oblivion.  I almost wonder if the very earliest detection of seasonal change is sweeping through the guidance cores...and that neutralization of the compression is allowing the wave to squeak through ... spit ballin'

 

 

[UnitedWx]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet @Typhoon Tip could shed some light at why.....

Right! You know.. I've been contemplating his H.C. thoughts and they do make sense. However the only thing that makes me scratch my head is how quickly it seems to have developed. I would expect it to happen more gradually. We had a string of VERY good winters in SNE for the most part, then the last couple happen suddenly. So maybe a see saw transition instead of gradual? Upcoming winters will be interesting to monitor the change.

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Right! You know.. I've been contemplating his H.C. thoughts and they do make sense. However the only thing that makes me scratch my head is how quickly it seems to have developed. I would expect it to happen more gradually. We had a string of VERY good winters in SNE for the most part, then the last couple happen suddenly. So maybe a see saw transition instead of gradual? Upcoming winters will be interesting to monitor the change.

The trend has been for late starting winters or non starting winters.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Right! You know.. I've been contemplating his H.C. thoughts and they do make sense. However the only thing that makes me scratch my head is how quickly it seems to have developed. I would expect it to happen more gradually. We had a string of VERY good winters in SNE for the most part, then the last couple happen suddenly. So maybe a see saw transition instead of gradual? Upcoming winters will be interesting to monitor the change.

HC is not the primary reason why we had a couple of subpar winters, climo is. We don't avg 80" of snow....never have, and probably never will.

What he is saying is valid, but its not the reason that we don't have a blockbuster winter every season.

[Typhoon Tip]

The 06z operational GFS is the first run of that particular model that has offered any demonstration at all that spatially fits it's own CPC telecon spread - particularly beyond D7..8.

Firstly, that weird synoptic "tucking" event at 500 mb up there over eastern Ontario. It was dumped by the 00z Euro .. the previous cycle, 12z yesterday had it, 00z she gone. 

Meanwhile, the GFS and most GEF members at 00z really are absurdly deep with that feature (March 2nd). We are still deep enough inside 1790 through 1980 winter climatology and so deeper anomalies in general are okay ...

Not sure that requires 500 mb heights at 468 dm over the GOM... height depths seldom found in Antarctica -

Pretty solid likeliness that is the GFS not having any limitations at all in its ability to lower heights as an ongoing attempt by NCEP to offset global warming utilizing fake modeling. 

Kidding...but jesus Christ. It does that everywhere ..all scales, dimensions, intents and purpose, in the ongoing maelstrom of atmospheric fluidity.  It's egregious... I don't want any V16 ... in fact, I don't want GFS, anymore ... I'm sick of it. For those of us of summer enthusiasm ..it will ruin summer if one spends any time using it during the warm season.   Last year, it started about 10 days after the Solstice, driving 300 hour range autumn patterns in July.. It's cold bias is so bad ... just don't f'ing run the model beyond 48 hours until you've figured this shit out... please -

Here's another aspect about the GFS based upon multiple seasons of persistence and thus, easy prediction. As we work our way into spring ... there are going to be times when the flow relaxes more and ridging becomes apparent across mid and lower latitudes of the continent in all guidance ... These period "should" be evocative of joy and nape dreams of euphoria for ah, more "normal" seasonal -seeking/guided individuals ( to which, ... NO ONE in this social media represents, of course hahaha )... But nope ... schmuck actually chooses to look at the GFS's surface synoptic... Ooh, and their day was going so good up until that point... when their eyes get a big load of that big pasty ass of a surface high pressure hanging over the log the 50th parallel across S Canada Canada. 

Sorry just having fun.. .but, that flow out there beyond 8 ... shows that buttocks high pressure tendency - built it, but it shows a lot of relaxed milder thickness and crumbled homogeneous baroclinic tendencies to the layout. The latter is at least encouraging.   That seems to also agree a bit with the Euros post D8 ...  Normally one would be two tokes into a crack pipe blowjob to ever infer much from either guidance' D8 ..entering spring migraine no less, but both seems to nod to the highly concertted/continuity of the +AO/+NAO/-PNA ...  I almost wonder if that period may emerge - given time - with more of a warm push... we'll see -

 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The trend has been for late starting winters or non starting winters.

Yet 3 of the last 4 have started quickly (Dec 2020, Dec 2019, and Dec 2017)....and even the one December dud 2018 was the big November with a record cold T-day.

[George001]

I don’t buy the upcoming storm being wintry at all. The polar vortex is over the North Pole which won’t allow cold air to come in and give us a huge blizzard. That storm on the european guidance looks like its rain even into the mountains in VT/NH/ME. A polar vortex over the North Pole is the type of atmospheric driver that dominates the pattern, and as long as it’s there it’s nearly impossible to get a winter storm in the east. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yet 3 of the last 4 have started quickly (Dec 2020, Dec 2019, and Dec 2017)....and even the one December dud 2018 was the big November with a record cold T-day.

I should have been more clear with my post...I think of quick starting  winters   as winters that begin "early" with  the winter weather continuing on  for at least several weeks.  ....December 19 dropped off a cliff after 12/1 and 12/2...December 20 faded quickly after the 17th and then essentially there wasn't much in the way of winter weather till late January. I consider this winter to be a late starting winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t buy the upcoming storm being wintry at all. The polar vortex is over the North Pole which won’t allow cold air to come in and give us a huge blizzard. That storm on the european guidance looks like its rain even into the mountains in VT/NH/ME. A polar vortex over the North Pole is the type of atmospheric driver that dominates the pattern, and as long as it’s there it’s nearly impossible to get a winter storm in the east. 

While a huge blizzard is indeed very unlikely in a +AO pattern, you can still have winter storms. A huge blizzard is relatively unlikely in any pattern at this latitude.

I am willing to bet that you would consider the seasons of 1993-1994 and 2014-2015 as having been fairly wintery....both +AO.

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Right! You know.. I've been contemplating his H.C. thoughts and they do make sense. However the only thing that makes me scratch my head is how quickly it seems to have developed. I would expect it to happen more gradually. We had a string of VERY good winters in SNE for the most part, then the last couple happen suddenly. So maybe a see saw transition instead of gradual? Upcoming winters will be interesting to monitor the change.

Just keep in mind:

...fearing contributing to 'fake news, 'fake science,' which when it comes right down to it is essentially, 'fake but because it was cleverly sounding it is thus highly convincing' - I don't want to be a part of that.  Heh, the Scientific Method, in rough assessment, goes like:   observation, hypothesis, data gathering, computation to support or refute hypothesis, conclusion .. where by the hypothesis is compared to the conclusion for go, no-go on.  

In this modernity ...where is apparently ever overwhelmed by a need for speed and rush to glory... subsuming sagacity, we seemed to have developed a new scientific method. Yeah!  So much easier if we can just go from observation, skip all that "unimportant other shit" right to awesome conclusion. Science fictional hypothesis - plausibility replaces the possible, where stimulating knee-jerk specter perpetuates the cinema.  It's so bad, that truth has become like trying to come down off a Opiode addiction - it can't be done with clinical intervention.

Kidding, I realize you are not taking those ideas to the bank. 

What is known to be true is  HC expansion... 

It's effect on modulating?  hypothesis, only.  Having said that... it's pretty damn awesome sounding

Unless there have been recent validation constrained publications to the contrary, as far as I am away that's where this is at this time. 

So hypothetically, it does rather nicely offer an entry into the science method, of formulation of reasonable hypothesis to explain the following observations:  teleconnectors have been less dependable as the historic, linear statistic inference use to be... prior to ~ 20 years ago, as a slowly increasingly more coherence.  This is true in both atmospheric ones, but also suggestive in longer term ones like ENSO. 

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yet 3 of the last 4 have started quickly (Dec 2020, Dec 2019, and Dec 2017)....and even the one December dud 2018 was the big November with a record cold T-day.

Mm, I'd suggest that it's more "prevalent" in those 3 of 4 years...

But since the year 2000, there have witnessed a huge jump in May and October snow and or snow supporting synoptics compared to pretty much the previous 200 year -based suggestion. 

Just sayn' ... I have Mets outside this engagement ...they're all noting a greater than decadal "seasonal lag/tainting" aspect... It's not just snow per se..either.. But weird pattern orientations in August that are straight out of January  - just happens to be 30 dm up in thickness... ... Same May..

It seems to happen just before, and just after ..the steeper gradient of mid winter proper is laid into the hemisphere.  So it's real... it's driving cold into mid latitudes over the continent, both prematurely and belated, during respective transition seasons.  I wonder if this phenomenon is happening in Europe and across Asia - that's an interesting question..

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm, I'd suggest that it's more prevalency in those 3 of 4 years...

But since the year 2000, there have been a huge jump in May and October snow and or snow supporting synoptics compared to pretty much the previous 200 year -based suggestion. 

Just sayn'

I think you are onto something with the bookends becoming more severe at the expense of mid winter....and if you think about it, may tend to expand the ceiling for high end events due to increased baroclinicity....lends itself to increased frequency of blockbusters.

Not only are we getting warmer, and injecting more energy into the atmosphere, but as mother nature tries to compensate for that by shearing storms with a greater frequency....the ones that do succeed are more likely to occur early or late in the season, when the compressed flow is less likely to be an issue and potential is already higher relative to the seasonal nadir.

[mahk_webstah]

25 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t buy the upcoming storm being wintry at all. The polar vortex is over the North Pole which won’t allow cold air to come in and give us a huge blizzard. That storm on the european guidance looks like its rain even into the mountains in VT/NH/ME. A polar vortex over the North Pole is the type of atmospheric driver that dominates the pattern, and as long as it’s there it’s nearly impossible to get a winter storm in the east. 

Does this mean that you have abandoned your forecast for multiple storms in March with multiple feet in each storm and 80-90 inches in Boston for the month of March?

[radarman]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Does this mean that you have abandoned your forecast for multiple storms in March with multiple feet in each storm and 80-90 inches in Boston for the month of March?

It means I'm off to load up on supplies

[MJO812]

No more cutter on the GFS 

[George001]

16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Does this mean that you have abandoned your forecast for multiple storms in March with multiple feet in each storm and 80-90 inches in Boston for the month of March?

Unfortunately it does. It looked great on the models a couple of weeks but then the models started breaking the pattern down and consolidating the polar vortex over the North Pole.

[George001]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

While a huge blizzard is indeed very unlikely in a +AO pattern, you can still have winter storms. A huge blizzard is relatively unlikely in any pattern at this latitude.

I am willing to bet that you would consider the seasons of 1993-1994 and 2014-2015 as having been fairly wintery....both +AO.

2014-2015 is the best winter I have ever seen in my life. Tons of Miller B blizzards. However the polar vortex was more elongated into Canada that year. This March on the models the polar vortex isn’t only over the North Pole but it’s strong and consolidated, which is more like 2011-2012 and last years pattern. That’s a cancel winter pattern.