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March 2021 Weather Discussion


CoastalWx
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11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I told Tip I’m on board with a 15F blizzard and then 70F 3-4 days later. Let’s lock it in. 

Overnight telecon subtle changes still give room for something in there - hyperbole aside..

Having not read any further along in this thread - my gut instinct portends a tenor where that song will be a lot of pissing and moaning however, as the operational runs across the board could not be more wrong relative to the most possible intents and purposes for this engagement - hahahahaha

My god... why doesn't NCEP just admit that the entire Environmental monitoring/modeling division is a hoax?  ... Oh they 'monitor'  - the content of social media enthusiast 'atmosphere' of desires, and then create 'model solution's that injure the most joy as they can in a great Schadenfreude sociological experiment.

What in the fu was that ?   I mean, it is just pure wrong for warm enthusiast, and storm enthusias, and spring enthusiast, ... even winter enthusiasts. Because from my experience, with winter enthusiasm, things actually fu have to do anything at all ... other than brick the Earth and keep people imprisoned in their homes during a Pan-fu'ingdemic internment camp...  Any plausible redeemable characteristic cannot be found in that guidance suite - does not exit - infinite wrongness.  I wonder if that's actually possible? 

I guess the upshot is that since we're talking D5 thru ... roughly 13 of the guidance vision, that's supposed to mean that 'perfect' solutions won't happen - ha, like, 'unfortunately, the dogshit stuffing down throat machine solution won't happen because it D8'  ... right? 

Ah hell... I see this date every year as a perennial right of passage ...it's right on the spring seam between the season going and the season coming,... where the models - symbolically - cannot decide which side gets fu the hardest ..so they just stand-by everybody in a cosmic dildo holding pattern for a few pumps... I mean, modeling cycles...

LOL, inappropriate jokes aside, ... that was an obnoxious series.  I mean the trough is opened back up sparing any passtime storm entertainment around us, but migrates up to 'faux' the NAO negative for 6 days... pushing cold out to mid month/ retarding the previous warming trends by like a week - all out of nowhere. 

The NAO curve at CPC shows a 'cupping' right in that time frame; sure enough ... looking at the individual GEFies ...they all have a 50/50 pig.. Interestingly, they don't much over-arc ridge/positive geo-p anomaly up there across the N. Atlantic - it seems local scaled NAO dipping there is more default by virtue of the vortex in this scenario.

That's bad.  It's bad because that's really "storm destructive" inference, because the flow represents post restoration/ .. thus balanced as it arrives into that state ... there's no where to go but a long prison sentence to get out of it while it winds down.  Better hope for spring enthusiasts, NOT at the blazing speed of seasonal change. That means, no snow.. .rain. .. probably, shreds sun in soothing current of 20mph daily wind from Dead Horse Canada

Meanwhile, La Nina spring and climo starts getting asynchronous officially tomorrow, with day 1 of Met spring and counting...

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28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

B- here so far because of January. Extra credit for October

March could raise or lower the grade. Already above or near seasonal average for snow with a few good events

I'm in the early 50s just E of y'all up in dem der hills ... I think I set at 52" ... which puts Ayer in the running for an average snow year.

But we're risking it being on the cusp.  If doesn't snow I think 10" more I'll end up neggie on the season.   Probably owing to that December system shirking this region of NE Mass and SE NH out of ~ 10" ...that's the key turn-over that ultimately cost the Superbowl in that metaphor.  Need at least average for a relative 'win' in that sense.

But you're not that far from here up route Poop. I remember that Dec storm's post-mortem stats showed a dearth here that ramped up pretty fast just down the road a piece toward Fitchburg.  From where I am up through NW Essex.. into Nashuas and the seacoast, the Dec storm was nothing more than hot cocoa muse out the window for a while. I remember the roads were handled and I was able to get to the gym and grocery run - barely broke routine. Meanwhile, banded of 30" raged on NW of here.  

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tomorrow looks mild. 50s?

I blew it.... I thought we'd nape this bitch at least through 18z today ... but alas! awoke to the slate sky shits.

Clear through 4 am, too, to make sure the radiative cold maxed, and the ceiling capped... to make busting that idea as proficiently as imaginatively possible too... It's like so murdered, that it resurrected the forecast ... just to rekill it! 

Thing is, hi res satellite does actually show that 6 to 9 hour clear area exists..It's just out over the warm nurturing waters of the outer GOM SW of NS - so I guess some minor face saving in that it was purely timing-  otherwise we may has had that at sun up through 18z like originally assess three days ago.

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I blew it.... I thought we'd nape this bitch at least through 18z today ... but alas! awoke to the slate sky shits.

Clear through 4 am, too, to make sure the radiative cold maxed, and the ceiling capped... to make busting that idea as proficiently as imaginatively possible too... It's like so murdered, that it resurrected the forecast ... just to rekill it! 

Thing is, hi res satellite does actually show that 6 to 9 hour clear area exists..It's just out over the warm nurturing waters of the outer GOM SW of NS - so I guess some minor face saving in that it was purely timing-  otherwise we may has had that at sun up through 18z like originally assess three days ago.

Yeah today dry for awhile, but the weekend  sort of stinks weather wise. Yesterday was downright awful. Get your nape on tomorrow though. 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Yes, been a trying month searching for a bigger storm. Nothing on the horizon either and the upslope machine isn't even running at the moment. But my pack is still near 30" and skiing has been good so that helps.

Everyone likes a big one or even medium but I love when I go up north to your area for a week and its constantly snowing. I was at Bolton for a long weekend and it snowed all the three days, added up to maybe 6-7 inches but blew around, it was a great atmosphere.

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